James Wyatt

If you want to see a 'good chart' go to voxeu and read Carmen and Vincent Reinhart's paper on "The Decade after the fall" herewith is the link and the best graph is the one at the end albeit just covers post WWII collapses. http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/5499 Real housing prices for the full period is available for ten of the fifteen financial crisis episodes. For this group, over an eleven-year period (encompassing the crisis year and the decade that followed), about 90% of the observations show real house prices below their level the year before the crisis. Median housing prices are

Our latest indices are available including Fulham: http://www.johndwood.co.uk/content/Services/Research__Publications/ Just go onto our website and they are all available under Surveyors, Publications. James Wyatt FRICS

Our latest indices are available for Fulham, Chelsea etc on our website under Surveyors and Publications http://www.johndwood.co.uk/content/Services/Research__Publications/ James Wyatt

By kind request Capital Economics put broad money (M4) against house price to earnings ratio (see attached). James M4 against HPE December 2010.pdf M4 against HPE December 2010.pdf

The attached chart from Capital Economics charts broad money (M4) against the house price to earnings ratio and following Irving Fisher's identity equation (MV=PT) suggests further QE. James Wyatt M4 against HPE December 2010.pdf M4 against HPE December 2010.pdf

There has been academic research to suggest prices are 'sticky' downwards as owners will not lower their prices below a certain level. This level is normally around the cost of purchase. The problem the market has at the moment, and one I raised in the Moneyweek roundtable, is the fact owners can afford to stay put as servicing costs are so low. These interest rates are likely to stay low as raising them quickly to where they should be (RPI at 4.5% so interest rates at 5.5-6%) would cause a signiciant correction and a debt deflationary spiral (Irving Fisher's piece in Econometrica 1933 is wort

I believe The Economist had actually warned about asset price bubbles in the 1990s (pin pricking a bubble in about 1997-1998). Pam Woodall, the economics editor at the time, continued to argue for asset prices to be monitored and remedial action to be taken. Unfortunately, she moved on and the current economics editor seems to have little understanding of this neglected school. In actual fact many hard monetarists share similar views and have even supported the abolition of fractional reserve banking. If you want to read more there are several very good books (stocking fillers). Austrian Ec

In reply to the question on what is next for Prime Central London, it very much depends on the City and the international consequences of the deleveraging. Our indices we produce are indpendently compiled by the LSE and use actual pounds per square foot at the date of exchange and show far greater volatility than other indices. However, they do show central London has almost tripled in the last ten years and even allowing for beyond trend earnings growth due to the City bonuses, this again suggests prices may be above fundamental values. However, with the low levels of debt it would suggest

"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" Keynes (one of my favourite quotes) Whether looking at the price to earnings ratio or affordability, house prices are above long term fundamental values and have been for a number of years. As many of my colleagues will testify I have been of the belief we have been in a credit bubble for many years (probably since 1997/1998 after I was gazumped twice); however, property prices continued to soar. The deleveraging which must take place is highly deflationary and this is why many economists, including Mervyn King and James Ferguso

Sorry for the delay in replying. To angrypirate We do keep a record of properties which have come to the market. The problem is with negative real interest rates owners can afford to sit tight and try high prices and this does not help the liquidity. To denarii It would be an interesting study to examine the percentage of foreign buyers compared to other areas. Fulham has changed markedly over the years and there are many foreigners especially French, due to their nursery school and primary school. Consequently, all agents have reported a large number of French moving from their South Kens

Apologies for the delay the Notting Hill Graph and Index should now be on our website at www.johndwood.co.uk James Wyatt FRICS

Most agents will tell you the market is far more volatile than almost all indices show as they are normally heavily "smoothed". One month can be quiet and the next everything is going to sealed bids and for 10-15% more than the guide (typically around bonus time). In central London many properties are held in companies and the companies are transacted thereby not showing up on Land Registry. Property portal indices show agents opinions and are therefore forward looking, our index uses the date of exchange when the deposit is paid and Land Registry uses completion, which can be several months l

Most portals track asking prices and therefore give an indication of the future direction of the market. It will be interesting to read the RICS survey. Our own research as mentioned on another thread uses actual prices achieved on the date of exchange from all leading agents and shows record prices achieved in the third quarter (many of the properties have not completed). However, many agents are reporting falling applicant numbers and a rise in supply, which would account for asking prices dropping off. With negative real interest rates there is very little pressure on owners many of whom pr

It seems the last post was quite an accurate prediction of the direction of the market. Latest graph and index: http://supadu.com/images/ckfinder/54/pdfs/Chelsea%20Property%20Graph%20and%20Index%20October%202010.pdf James Wyatt FRICS

New graph and index available: http://supadu.com/images/ckfinder/54/pdfs/Notting%20Hilll%20House%20Graph%20and%20Index%20October%202010.pdf It seems the negative real interest rates coupled with the rising stockmarket and City bonuses are having an impact (for now). James Wyatt FRCIS