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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Montauk

  1. Too late. I started to distance myself around 2006. Looking back, that time coincided with the euphoria phase of stage three.

    I couldn't talk to anyone about it. Those who actually understand how asset markets operate are very thin on the ground. The vast majority are just monetary farm animals.

    Mum's the word from here on in I suppose.

  2. i dont agree, free pint to anyone who can counter this for i wish we get a rent crash becuase that will mean an even harder hpc

    im my view, the rental market is vastly manipulated and TINY!

    how many people rent privatly, ie excluding council renters, HA renters, DSS renters.

    perhaps 5-10% of the housing stock. how many of them can and will bet housing benifit if they get sacked? perhaps 50% if not more.

    you are only looking at 2.5%-5% of the housing market which actually determines rents. so perhaps 1m homes spread across the whole country.

    because of housing benifit, council homes, DSS the rental market is manipulated and fixed.

    That's only because most renters don't realise that rents are actually negotiable!

    i cant see much contraction in rent, very few people rent properly and a lot of those will get gov support which will prop up rent

  3. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/dmstandar...e_id=8&ct=5
    House price crash is here, say City banks
    Sam Fleming, Daily Mail
    9 May 2008
    Reader comments (43)
    | Vote | Calculate | Blog
    Britain is now in a full-blown 'housing crash', two leading City banks warned in the wake of the Bank of England's decision to hold interest rates at 5%.
    Analysts at Citigroup and Dresdner Kleinwort said the UK has entered a property slump rivalling that in the US because the supply of mortgage credit has dried up.
    'A serious housing crash is now under way,' said Citigroup economist Michael Saunders. The shocks hitting Britain from the credit crunch and rising inflation are 'very severe'.

    Apologies if already posted.

    There are few now that are denying that the big one is coming here in all its power, might and majesty. Great Crash 2 is now officially underway.

    Oh thank you my blessed friend. And hey! Where's the lady that was on the Speonk train? Are you there? Love you/.
  4. I have bought a house

    In my defence


    A 4 bed detached that as a plasterer/builder I can spend time doing it up to how I want it was hard to pass up.

    The next priced local 4 bed detached it £230 grand.

    Its in the top of a cul de sac, backs onto a river, and is pretty perfect for us

    I do apologise for not waiting longer but got sick of waiting and this (compared to that 3 bed maisonet in london last week posted on here at 600 grand) well fick me its a bargain

    Will still read here and still post and will still (as my MSE thread states) campaign for houses to drop

    Good luck to you all, you are correct, and your day WILL come !!!

    Hope you got a good deal, at least for todays market. Best of luck, it sounds quite nice. Especially if you can afford it.
  5. Looking at all this data and predictions it really puts me off doing anything at the moment. I am a STR and pumped the money into the business.

    The big numbers like this even though i STR at the peak August last year my business might go bust because no one has any money and wants to buy.

    Who are VI for these big numbers?

    Well then that wasn't too bright of a move, then was it? You must have STR'd for reasons other than to escape the obvious tsunami at our baks, as it were.

  6. The Mirror has a nice article about the Great Crash of 1929 and subsequent depression today. Lots of history stuff about people losing everything, jumping off buildings, etc. Comments that it was all started by people shorting stock which is what happened this week with HBOS and then how this might be GDII.

    It appears that you are completely right, my dear one. It's been so nice to follow yor posts through the years. What will happen now? One can only guess. Oh yes, I've forgotten that your housing market is somehow still alive. Cheers, friend.

  7. Errm horses and stable doors spring to mind. Also what a turn around from "no sub prime in the UK" we were hearing only a few months ago?

    But I'm all for the banks getting sued for misselling even if the customers were being slightly over optimistic about their earnings.

    It's not so much the so-called "sub prime" loans (not that they aren't a problem, too) but the no down stated income loans as well. In fact, when house prices go down, even the sterling-credit loans at no down will probably walk away, as well. This is what's happening in California and Florida. Anyone who has no skin in the game, or has already lost their equity, due to the specualtors walking away, will be severely tempted to walk away, as well. And why not? BTW, where is TTRTR anyway? I used to find his posts extremely entertaining and pursuasive. :)

  8. The UK "property bubble", is nowhere near as bad as the US's. Our problem is mainly contained to new build apartment property club scams in areas of oversupply, there will also be some fallout from tightening lending criteria especially in sub prime but this is a comparitively small percentage of the market compared to the US. Brokers and lenders over there have been practically murdering borrowers with ridiculous mortgages they could never afford. At least our buy to letters generally have good income to fall back on. Our undersupply will keep us from crashing too much. The US has had a massive oversupply of housing and very light mortgage regulation. Very different from us.

    Oh, yes, "it's different here!" :) Oh, oh, oh, stop me, stop me if you think you've heard this one before. :)

  9. western currencies are being pounded

    That's exactly it. Ninety percent of my net worth is in the US dollar. It just sucks to see it go down every day. I'm not an experienced trader, so I don't know what to do with this 100K I have. If HeliBen is going to hyperinflate (and what coice does he have?), then I should move now whilst my "pot of gold" will still buy a loaf of bread, no?

  10. Unless equal number of investors believe there will be hyperinflation by government to get out of the crunch, as there are investors who believe that there will be a massive depression, in which case prices will stay the same.

    The thing to remember is that the crash of 1929 created headlines, but the real damage occured more gradually over the next two years. It wouldn't have mattered if the single-day crash hadn't happened, the depression would have been the same. We could easily have a situation where there is no single crash, and prices fall slowly, or where there is no single-day crash, but no rises to compensate for galloping inflation. Either would be just as bad. Or good, if you're hoping for a crash...

    Interesting you should say that. It's my theory that real estate collapses precede stock market crashes. It's just something I've noticed in my research.

  11. Didn't see your update 'til just now. Best of luck, anyways. Hope everything works out for you. As an aside, my wife is Japanese, so she didn't argue when we sold. She's seen a bubble pop before. :) Tokyo prices are just now beginning to go up after about 17 years of falling. Plus, she doesn't have to work because of this situation, and the kids have a stay at home mom. No potential for abuse at the hands of strangers.

    We were lucky and found a good rental in a BETTER area immediately, because I had access to the listings. :) So far, so good. It's also important to note that in this area, suburban NYC, that had we bought another house here in 2005, we would have lost at least half of our "free money", since prices have been falling ever since. Debt free living is really nice. We pay no interest to anyone. And the rent is about 2/3 of what our mortgage, taxes and interest would have been.

    It's been 3 years now, and the landlord has never inspected the house, even once. This year we got a new furnace an hot water heater. The kids are in top schools, and the neighbours are nice.

    If we had to move this year, we would seek a similar rental, and if one were not available, buy a house at a 20% discount to prices in 2005. We can do this now because of an excellent credit rating, steady job, and a 30% down payment. No car payments, no CC balances and a chunk of money in investments and the bank. I just hope the banks don't fold!

    Lot's of luck!

  12. i could sell up now, pay off the mortgage, clear some debts and walk away with 230-240k

    in the bank plus turn the endowment into a savings plan and then either rent where we are now

    or buy with a small/ low mortgage in a cheaper part of the country.

    what would you do in my place? stay or go?

    I would sellup, take the money, and rent in the same area. You'll sleep a lot better not owing anyone a dime, and the flexibility of not owning a house is very liberating. Just make sure to sell lower than the comps in your area. Keep dropping the price a certain percentage every 2 weeks until you get a sale. I would think that 200K of free money would tide you over nicely for a while. We did this in 5005, a little early, but it was well worth it. Also important to point out is to get a good rental. If you can't right away, take an adequate one and continue looking around whilst you have time. Since your income is not so steady, why don't you become an estate agent in your spare time? That will give you access to all the rental listings. :) Best of luck!

  13. No one seems to have pointed out that hanging around and doing nothing is one of the worst things you can do if you are depressed. Much better to keep as busy as possible, as physical activity can relieve depression. I was depressed once, actually more than once. Used to sit around listeng to music, not going to my universiity classes, etc. This person should not have taken time off, in fact, she should get even more hours to weather the storm, not to mention start an exercise program. Lying around and thinking about your problems is the worst thing to do if you're depressed.

  14. Oh sorry - renting doesn't count as losing money then?

    Not when it's cheaper to rent. Or even close to it. I've saved about 137 thousand dollars by not buying since 2005,when I sold. Not to mention the 5K in interest against the rent. Prices in my area have gone down 100K in dollars since closing in 2005 in my area. The added bonus is that if a neighbor moves in and decides to raise dobermins, , I'm out of here pronto- no unsellable house to put on the market. Dogs are a big problem for civilized peeps in the USA. Check out www.barkingdogs.net for more information.

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