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Montauk

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Posts posted by Montauk

  1. None of us are going to learn anything from it but its nice to see some advocacy for what I think is the mainstream HPC perspective on things.

    Full article here: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/c...icle5288722.ece

    So not true. Deflation is now taking hold big time. Been to dep't store sales or at the petrol pump lately? Huge discounts. Housing prices are now falling, so it's a good thing for the person quoted in the article. His/her time has (nearly) come. Of course He/she could wait a bit longer for even more bargains. :)

  2. Who you calling a cult? :lol:

    I've been reading this site and it's American cousin www.thehousingbubbleblog.com for what, three and a half years? Sure saved me a ton o' cash since I STR'd in Dec 2004. Here in the States, the crash is on going. Manhattan is the last to fall. London and Manhattan will go down together. Gloat? a little, but if the banks collapse, I'll be just as poor as anyone else, I'm afraid.

  3. It almost seems laughable now, but people used to firmly believe that there would not be a HPC, and they had lots of reasons. Here are a few from the HPC Wiki:

    * Increased immigration to the UK

    * Accelerating growth in formation of new households (as a result of divorce, and people choosing to live alone)

    * Lack of housing supply in areas of key economic activity, e.g. the South East

    * Planning restrictions in desirable areas, e.g. Green Belt

    * Proliferation of low-quality new-build flats makes period properties even more sought after

    * Manageable levels of household consumer debt :lol::lol:

    * New paradigm of high house prices as property becomes a tax-advantageous investment vehicle

    * Failure of other investment vehicles, e.g. pensions

    * Globalisation of the housing market

    And let's not forget some other classics:

    * Low interest rates :lol:

    * Low unemployment :lol:

    * Pent-up demand

    * More two-income families

    * City bonuses :lol:

    * Rich Russians :lol:

    These arguments were nothing more that symptons of the bubble and not evidence of why one did not exists.

    Excuse me for wallowing in pre-HPC nostalgia.

    Wonderful! I've heard them all! I was here! I recall pondering all of these possible scenarios, but what has happened is that none of them will be true. It's very interesting. Tragic, but interesting. now, because of all these irresponsible dreamers ad schemers, we have to deal with an imploding world wide economy, which I didn't bargain for- all I wanted was a house in a good area I could afford! :)

  4. Down the pub today and landlord told me that 5 pub close every day, I told him I did not realise there was that many pubs in Derby. I was corrected and he told me that was in the UK. Another customer asked him how to calculate how long would it take it for his pub to be the last one as he would need to know this for his pub to make any profit. He had literally 5 people in all evening. I might be mistaken, I got there at 8 ish.

    How does he manage to keep it open, try no heating at all, it was and always is bloody freezing in there. He spends absolutely NO MONEY ON REFURBISHMENTS AT ALL. Carpet dated 1988, television is one hell of an old 24 inch CRT covered in a big brown wooden box. Stack of Videos. Stacks of books everywhere, old broken piano, guiters hung on walls. Posters of ICONS everywhere, Elvis, Maradonna, Al Pacino. Plays the same old films again and again and again, Purple rain, Bruce Springstein, Marlon Brando films and other old iconic films. The place is mortgage free and has been for donkeys years.

    The thing I like about the place come Boom or Bust or Economic meltdowns as we are witnessing now, the pub will always be the same, same trade, same beer, same movies same decor, same customers. He has a tendancy or barring new customers, he does not like them ruining the atmosphere. This pub is a real enigma, it makes no sense at all to keep it going based on financial judgement alone, but I love the place.

    Enough of my ramplings read this article about pubs closing. http://travel.iafrica.com/bulletinboard/1171285.htm

    Sounds like the perfect prole hang out to me. I'd love to visit it. :)

  5. I'm not allowed to see the video, as I'm not in the UK. What kind of Big Brother kind of shit is that? Please help yourselves! We're tapped out and cannot rescue you anymore. Grow some balls for God's sake! Good Luck! ( The NRA will no longer lend you any guns as they did in WWII.) (Look it up... if you're still "allowed" to)

    It occurs to me that none of you has seen the message I've got. I got a message that says that only people in the UK can view the video. That is the first time I've ever seen anything remotely like that. Personally, I find it quite disturbing. I could show you by link, but you would probably not get that message over the screen. What it means is that there is increasing control over the internet, the very source of all of our unbiased information. Quite disturbing IMPOV.

  6. I'm not allowed to see the video, as I'm not in the UK. What kind of Big Brother kind of shit is that? Please help yourselves! We're tapped out and cannot rescue you anymore. Grow some balls for God's sake! Good Luck! ( The NRA will no longer lend you any guns as they did in WWII.) (Look it up... if you're still "allowed" to)

  7. for me i feel the real hpc will start in march 2009...

    may end by middle 2010..

    then property may stay the same bit up bit down for one more year..

    then 2011 or the start of 2012...

    small increase....

    the fall will be min 50% from the peak...

    well anybody agree ?

    I think you are quite right. I can't see how financing is going to be as freely available as it was.

  8. I think we all know the source of this crisis, and I also think we have all been surprised by the speed and scale with which things have evolved, although I accept some people predicted an end to society altogether. I think it important to highlight for the more sane posters that it looks like the unabated weakening of the US housing market is... well... abating.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/gc03/idUSTRE49M5Q320081024

    Sales of previously owned homes in the US actually rose... albeit from a rather sad low.

    And although I don't think we are anything near the end of the crisis or even a mid point... This could provide markets with something to grasp hold of in terms of the wicked uncertainty regarding the future.

    I think stock markets have sunk roughly as far as they might and they will hover at or about current levels for the next year or two... I'm personally thinking about buying again, although I haven't started, yet.

    Perhaps it's just that foreclosure and shortsales count as sales, but not as comps, mind you.

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