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blue skies

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Posts posted by blue skies

  1. This is a wonderful opinion. The things mentioned are unanimous and needs to be appreciated by everyone.

    outsourcing uk jobs

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    THE asking price of the childhood home of football legend George Best has been slashed in an attempt to encourage interest in the property.

    The modest terrace situated in the Cregagh estate in east Belfast - the longstanding home of Best's father Dickie - has been up for sale since August last year.

    Originally on the market with an asking price of £165,000, the property is now being advertised at £145,000 - a drop of 12 per cent.

    The revised price is only believed to have been implemented in recent weeks and is reflective of the overall Northern Ireland housing market.

    Neil Templeton, from estate agent Templeton Robinson, said the revaluation had been made in consultation with the Best family.

    "It (the price drop) is really because of the market," he said.

    "There is not a single house in Northern Ireland that hasn't come down in price in the last 12 months so we are really just reflecting that with the change in the price.

  2. S&P index over last 3 months has had the steepest gain in 70 years (37% from its low in March)

    Commodity index (CRB) is up 27% from its low

    UK House Prices (according to the Nationwide) have risen in 5 of the last 6 months

    Food Prices are rising

    Energy Prices are rising

    Oil has risen over 100% since its low of $37 per barrel

    FTSE has risen nearly a 1000 points in the last 6 months

    UK Bond Market has not collapsed

    A very thoughtfull post !

    World governments are competing with each other to see who can have the most worthless currency, even with there best efforts, fiat dollars are still standing up. My best gess is that the smart money is betting on a " GREAT ASSET GRAB".

    This is what I have gambled to happen, I hold cash as I thought it would be the best investment in deflation.

    But it may go like this: Unemployment, morgage failures, bonds failing to sell, inflation and devaluation of currency, break down of the EU? Euro collaps?

    What is going on?

  3. I'm curious about the views held with regard to patents by the free market defenders here.

    The slowing rate of decline in home prices is likely to continue but the housing market is "still in an abysmal situation," says Robert Shiller, a professor of economics at Yale. The co-creator of the S&P Case-Shiller Index, which tracks national housing prices, says the housing market could "languish for many years," due to the "huge inventory" of unsold holds, "shadow inventory" of homes kept off the market by banks and other potential sellers, and "a lot of financial problems."

    But incredibly, the author of Animal Spirits (with George Akerlof), The Subprime Solution and Irrational Exuberance believes "there could be another bubble" in housing, once the excess inventory is worked off. "This is not my more probable scenario [but] people have gotten very speculative in their attitudes toward housing," he says................. Well I say let the bubbles continue, right now we got a share and property bubble starting to inflate and when this one pops ............................................ a lot of speculators are gona get shaken up.

  4. Gamblers are fools.

    “You had the authority to prevent irresponsible lending practices that led to the subprime mortgage crisis. You were advised to do so by many others,†said Representative Henry A. Waxman of California, chairman of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, in October 2008, to Alan Greenspan. “Do you feel that your ideology pushed you to make decisions that you wish you had not made?â€

    Greenspan conceded: “Yes, I’ve found a flaw. I don’t know how significant or permanent it is. But I’ve been very distressed by that fact.â€

    Stephen Roach says monetary policy will need to shift away from the Greenspan-Bernanke reactive post-bubble cleanup approach toward pre-emptive bubble avoidance. He says it may be tricky to judge when an asset class is in danger of forming a bubble.

    Roach advocates that Congress should add financial stability to the Fed's existing mandates of price stability and full employment.

    He says there would be no room in a new financial stability mandate for the ideological excuses of bubble denialists. Alan Greenspan, for example, argued that equities were surging because of a New Economy; that housing forms local not national bubbles; and that the credit explosion was a by-product of the American genius of financial innovation. In retrospect, while there was a kernel of truth to all of those observations, they should not have been decisive in shaping Fed policy. Under a financial stability mandate, the US central bank would have no such leeway. It will, instead, need to replace ideological convictions with common sense. When investors and speculators buy assets in anticipation of future price increases — precisely the case in each of the bubbles of the past decade — the Fed will need to err on the side of caution and presume that a bubble is forming that could pose a threat to financial stability.

  5. Where is the "comparing apples with oranges index"?

    The Economist said in 2005 that rising property prices helped to prop up the world economy after the stockmarket bubble burst in 2000 and it estimated that the total value of residential property in developed economies rose by more than $30 trillion over the previous five years, to over $70 trillion, an increase equivalent to 100% of those countries' combined GDPs. The surge not only dwarfed any previous house-price boom, it was larger than the global stockmarket bubble in the late 1990s (an increase over five years of 80% of GDP) or America's stockmarket bubble in the late 1920s (55% of GDP). The Economist said that the rise looked like the biggest bubble in history. All that is happening right now is, Government as it all ways does reacting to past events, I believe unless people are willing to look to the future and make the hard and unpopular decisions we will just keep repeating the the same misstakes. The banks in the US have gambled the $ given to them by the government on shares, currency trades and look to have won! So the next bubble grows.

  6. Well, it seems after 34 votes, which I think is a reasonable sample size considering the number of active HPCers, the evil ones out number the softies by very nearly 2 to 1.

    So, like a bunch of modern day highwaymen mercilessly torturing their victims, before violently slitting their throats and making off with the loot, the mawkish EVIL ONES have it.

    Onward to the bottom of the crash and the spoils it may bring!!!

    A economy built on consumption and credit! it must surely end in tears, while the future is/has being morgaged. There will be rewards for the prudent, how ever there are down sides for the comming poverty. There is nothing good socialy to come, this is just a small sample of what you can expect: increased crime, resentment, your nice new car vandalized by some Chav because he knows he will never own one and resents the car and you. Arsen for the same reason. Stealing : will rise 10 fold, and if things get really bad Kidnapings. Yes as times get rotten so do the ranks close. race attacks will be ongoing with people driven from estates.

    The government has set the stage for a really hard time for many. I dont think it was done out of malice but out of a missplaced belief in the good in people. History has shown people need some one to blame for there missfortune.

    I hope to gain from the comming crash and have arranged my finances to do so, however I have no missconseptions about the sorrow it will bring.

  7. I'm in an interesting and fortunate position. The decisions I make now could set me up for life, or set me back to square one. While partly being selfish and wanting free advice, it also seems my position poses some interesting questions about the direction of our economy and what that practically means, what individuals should do about it.

    I have no dependents, and am not likely to in the next couple years.

    I've just paid off my mortgage.

    I've accepted an offer on my two-bedroom London flat (fingers crossed).

    I have substantial savings, largely in cash and non-sterling government bonds.

    I'm about to be made redundant (which I've been playing for and is very welcome - I strongly dislike my job)

    I don't want to stay in my industry so am unlikely to get another job quickly.

    In other words, after 10 years of hard(ish) work, by the end of August I should be homeless, unemployed, debt free and cash rich.

    My thinking has been...

    The economy is bad, I don't see the green shoots, we're massively in debt both as a country and individuals, we're printing money even thought the CPI hasn't decreased beyond the target band - inflation is on the horizon.

    The worst thing to have when there's inflation is cash. In which case I should spend my cash on an asset, which should maintain its real value even with inflation. And, ideally, I'd spend my cash on an asset I could use.

    Yet houses are still over priced: The average person on £25k can't get near to affording the average house of £150k, and it'll get worse with more job losses coming.

    While I expect property prices to go down, I expect them to go down less, in real terms, than cash and, at the same time, I need somewhere to live.

    So my plan is to spend pretty much all of my cash on a nice property to live in, and, potentially, with space I may be able to let out to provide me an income to cover bills and food.

    What would you do? (I don't want to live on a beach in the third world! Well, not for more than a month or so)

    All asset classes will suffer, the trick is to invest in the one that suffers the least. Right now Iam gessing holding cash will loose you the least amount. You cant get the dole with the sort of money you have, so it may be a answer to buy the best house you can aford and put your hand out for the dole , the way things are going it may be years before you get a job if thats what you want?

  8. The population is ever growing, creating demand for resources Housing, in particular land will all ways be highly valued. Many have left the UK for economic and life style reasons there number quickly replaced by others for exactly the same reasons.

    Global trade in people is nothing new. I think it reaches its zenith with Nations poaching athletes with the lure of citizenship so that they will compete for them. Governments no longer look at their population as brothers and sisters who share the same cultural believes, People are considered no more than an economic unit. Throughout history over population has all ways led to a drop in the standard of living. Wealth is having the necessary things to ensure survival; Countries that have all the resources to look after their own needs will prosper if there is good government.

    Governments worldwide have had no choice but socialize banks or face finantual ruin. Money that is (loaned – given) to banks has now gone to any where it can make more money. Mums and dads with cash are wondering just what to do. Will there be a great asset grab? It would appear this is what is driving the market right now. Money is now moving to “safety†gold, commodities and bonds (not U.K .and U.S.).The result is the average citizen’s future is now indebted, higher tax and more effort for less reward are the new order.

    The value placed on a country’s currency is a reflection of the confidence of that state. World Governments are inflating the money supply while cutting their own expenditure and capping public wages, by means of weakening Labour Unions and selective immigration.

    Inflation is a direct tax on people who have saved.

    The “credit crises†is not a lack of money but rather a shortage of suitable borrowers who are willing to speculate. The perception in the community is one of pessimism, why buy something that’s dropping in value? Banks are demanding greater deposits on housing loans the rational is that should the property drop in value and the owner default the bank will not lose. Companies are issuing more shares not to expand operations, but to retire debit, again the thinking is negative “how will we pay of debits with our sales dropping?â€

    Interest rates have been cut to historic lows in order to get things going again. Government bonds are now being offered at higher interest rates as investors worry about credit worthiness. At some point in time interest rates will go up and governments will have no choice in the mater, as investors demand reward for risk.

    As you think so you are: The same cognitive forces that drove the bubble are now working in reverse. For the next decade house prices will drop and stagnate. However the basic needs food clothing and shelter will always be sort after at any price. Imagine high interest, high unemployment, high cost of living and eventually high house prices.

  9. Australia, will weather the comming storm better than most: Stable government, low government debt, heaps of natural asetts, low population.

    Euros buy twice what they get in the UK.

    If you are young you can probably get a one year Back packer visa to stay.

    Sunny days, best beaches in the word, warm seas to swim in.

    Queues are few and the dreadfull beer cold.

    Boags Draft and Coopers Ale are about the best.

    If you think you can survive with out a good pork sausage, jellyed eels, and a social life unlike any other, than Australia is the place to be.

    The great Australian dream is home ownership. The great Australian Nightmare will be negitive equity on a string of negitive geared rental investment properties.

  10. The population is ever growing, creating demand for resources Housing, in particular land will all ways be highly valued. Many have left the UK for economic and life style reasons there number quickly replaced by others for exactly the same reasons.

    Global trade in people is nothing new. I think it reaches its zenith with Nations poaching athletes with the lure of citizenship so that they will compete for them. Governments no longer look at their population as brothers and sisters who share the same cultural believes, People are considered no more than an economic unit. Throughout history over population has all ways led to a drop in the standard of living. Wealth is having the necessary things to ensure survival; Countries that have all the resources to look after their own needs will prosper if there is good government.

    Governments worldwide have had no choice but socialize banks or face finantual ruin. Money that is (loaned – given) to banks has now gone to any where it can make more money. Mums and dads with cash are wondering just what to do. Will there be a great asset grab? It would appear this is what is driving the market right now. Money is now moving to “safety†gold, commodities and bonds (not U.K .and U.S.).The result is the average citizen’s future is now indebted, higher tax and more effort for less reward are the new order.

    The value placed on a country’s currency is a reflection of the confidence of that state. World Governments are inflating the money supply while cutting their own expenditure and capping public wages, by means of weakening Labour Unions and selective immigration.

    Inflation is a direct tax on people who have saved.

    The “credit crises†is not a lack of money but rather a shortage of suitable borrowers who are willing to speculate. The perception in the community is one of pessimism, why buy something that’s dropping in value? Banks are demanding greater deposits on housing loans the rational is that should the property drop in value and the owner default the bank will not lose. Companies are issuing more shares not to expand operations, but to retire debit, again the thinking is negative “how will we pay of debits with our sales dropping?â€

    Interest rates have been cut to historic lows in order to get things going again. Government bonds are now being offered at higher interest rates as investors worry about credit worthiness. At some point in time interest rates will go up and governments will have no choice in the mater, as investors demand reward for risk.

    As you think so you are: The same cognitive forces that drove the bubble are now working in reverse. For the next decade house prices will drop and stagnate. However the basic needs food clothing and shelter will always be sort after at any price. Imagine high interest, high unemployment, high cost of living and eventually high house prices.

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