Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

blue skies

  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by blue skies

  1. I dont mean to be pendantic, but you really can't spell at all can you? <_<

    In years gone by the spelling was correct if you can understand it.

    It is only about the last 150 years that a right way and a wrong way became fashionable.

    You understood my message.

    If you talk to some one with a speech impediment do find it gradifying to correct them and state that "they really can't talk at all?"

    What motivates you too do this?

  2. Hey Spoony

    I feel your pain, as I rent and have bein waiting 5 years for the big crunch.

    Just when you are ready to give up, is the time just before things can change in your favour.

    I can tell from your comments "Iam getting older" etc that you have reached the point of justifying buying a house.

    I can remember a friend buying at the hight of the boom " they are going up so quick if I dont act now it will cost more and I wil not be able to afford a house at all"

    Every single one of us is in the drivers seat of our own destiny, we have freedom to pick from a limited amount of options.

    The last thing to be let out of Pandoras Box was hope.

    I like to think that the decisions of the resurve banks would be no different if monkeys were pulling the levers. So it is possible that a bad situation becomes worse.

    The whole world has maxed out the credit cards and governments are trying to inflate there way out of debit.

    I feel happy to rent, and look at buying a house more as a investment. though culture strongly pulls me to home ownership.

    In japan there is a riddle

    The sword of the sumuri; strength

    The peal of the merchant; wealth

    The mirrow of self reflection; self motivation

    It is considered the last is the most valuable.

    To understand oneself is the greatest challange and achievment, I encourage you to post again giving your reasons for and against, rational and emotional.

  3. God shows his dislike for money, by the kind of people he gives it to!

    I remember going to church with my mother every week she would put money into the plate. It wasnt untill I was much old that I realize that we were poor and that the church was taking and doing nothing for us.

    remember: God Saves

    : Jesus invests

    This story reminds me of the ophan kids in Ireland sent to a church run instatution were they endured all maner of mental, phisical and sexual abuse.

    Why was this allowed to happen?

    A great amount of the money that the government supplied for there care , was in fact sent to Rome.

    How was this done?

    In time past nothing bad was said about a priest and non belivers were threated as leppers.

    Its not by chance the church is having trouble getting new priests or faithfull.

    The body can not exsist with out the mind.

    The mind can not exsist with out the body.

  4. Britain should receive sterling warning’

    By Joe Dermody

    Thursday, October 15, 2009

    ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet should issue a warning to Britain to halt its "orderly" devaluation of sterling, according to one of the country’s top economists.

    Dermot O’Leary of Goodbody Stockbrokers said the devaluation of the British pound has been carefully managed over the past nine to 12 months and it is time ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet issued a statement on the subject.

    Mr O’Leary said: "The ECB is known as ‘the guardian of the euro’, so it would be important for President Trichet to make some sort of verbal intervention.

    "It is in Britain’s interests to let its currency continue to fall. The only reason a problem would occur for the UK would be any rapid fall. However, it has been quite orderly.

    "With little in the way of verbal intervention from UK policymakers, it is clear that they are happy to allow the currency to decline, as it is part of the process of stimulating the economy back to growth and rebalancing the economy away from a dependence on domestic demand towards net trade," he argued.

    Sterling hit 94p relative to the euro at one stage yesterday, before edging back closer to 93p.

    Sterling has fallen by 6% relative to the euro in the past month alone, by 17% this year, and by 21% since the end of 2008.

    Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/business/britain-should-receive-sterling-warning-103338.html#ixzz0TyBBB9HY

    Hmmmmmmmmmm I was just thinking a devalued currency leads us to inflation and higher interest rates.

    The pilot of a plane knows that there is a time delay between movement of the controls and movement of the plane, Maybe air craft pilots sould be in high finance.

  5. Salary multiples are reasonable.

    As if ! House prices are high because people have bein given cheap credit and buys have borrowed to the max. The latest share bubble is driven now buy the credit given to the banks.

    Governments are hell bent on imigration.

    Any farmer knows the total ruin facing anyone who over stocks the land.

    Base rates to stay low.

    Given the total lack prudence displayed by investors in the equities and other more dangerous markets (futures, derivitives) and the house prices creeping up again. There will come a point were government will have to save people from them selfs.

    Mortgage rates to stay low.

    Banks are quick to up the morgage rates to there bonded slaves when there balance sheets are taking a hammering from defaulting business and those who have bein sacked.

    Do you really think this economy is in for fine weather?

    Houses are a store of value.

    They can all so be a mill stone around your neck.

    Native American Indians had Tents so that they could move with the Buffalow. So too renters can move were the work is.

    High unemployment = low house prices

    High interest rates = low house prices

    Houses go up because people buy

    houses go down because people sell

    Look its simple if you think you are well and the world is well , than borrow to the max

    But if you recon your job is at risk and the country is going to hell in a basket, think about how you can not just get by but how you can take steps to improve your lot.

    Negitive thinking can cost you big money more often than thinking possitively. The best thought of all is to be rational

  6. I just dont get it! Right now the bubble is growing fueled by almost free money .25% . that same money is finding its way all over the globe.

    Money goes were it does best.

    But with the speed comes the danger, Iam calling a 10% drop in equities, oil and may be even gold by the end of this month.

    Responsible governments must up interest rates and very soon.

    I have never seen anything like the current situation, mind blowing.

  7. Smell the fear

    Business and banking are no different that the Africa Servanna, a beast gets sick or injured and in come the preditors for esy meat.

    Even with a government backing and probably they were offering the highest interest rates around.

    Last count all most 100 small banks bit the dust in the USA. (big is best)

    All over the planet savings have gone from small banks to the perceived Safety of the big banks.

    The same big banks that were on the chopping block one year ago, the same banks that are now speculating deposites on all matter of finantual gambles.

    What a possition to be in, have just about a monopoly , total government backing,

    Life is good unless you are some plebian who has foolishly saved cash and is now looking low interest rates and inflation. Infation is just a nother tax. But the future is not set in concrete.

  8. This might sound dumb to some but isn't all this currency debasement a relative issue? ie: if EVRY western government wants to debase their own currency then the net result is no debasement? Or at the least a long drawn out process.

    I guess I can understand why in some counties it might be advantageous because they actually make stuff for export. But us?

    Great Brittan is far from finished!

    Traditionaly native inhabitants of GB have bein a big export and it will increase in ever greater numbers.

    Only the best and brightest will have the ability to leave GB in this global downturn, Hmmmmmm what will be left behind to rebuild?

    Brittan has cutting edge inventors and very clever people ( for now), however the pounds strength makes sure the manufacturing goes some were else.

    The pound is way to high and has bein for decades.

    Let us not forget the pensioners who live in a cheap euro country to improve there life style, but slowly and surely drain the life blood of this once great nation.

    I think the population explosion has bein part of the short term solution put is now part of the long term problem.

    So dont be too negitive Brittan will rise from the ashes to be great once more ( with the help of smoke and mirrows)

  9. LONDON (MarketWatch) -- British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Monday slapped "for sale" signs on 3 billion pounds ($4.8 billion) worth of assets in an effort to plug a growing hole in the government's budget.

    Under the plan, the government would unload stakes in betting company The Tote, a portfolio of student loans, the cross-Channel rail link between England and France and the government's 33% stake in uranium processor Urenco.

    Local governments are expected to raise an additional 13 billion pounds through sales of assets.

    The push comes ahead of an election campaign in which the budget deficit is expected to be a central issue. The election must be held no later than June.

    Brown, in a speech, said the sales, which will take place over the next two years, were part of the government's strategy to cut the deficit in half within four years, complementing a planned tax rise, a crackdown on tax avoidance and future spending cuts.

    The move comes amid forecasts for the budget deficit this year to hit 220 billion pounds, or 12% of gross domestic product. Brown argued that Labour, unlike other parties, aims to bring the deficit in line while avoiding hefty cuts in investment and public services.

    "We are determined that deficit reduction can happen in a way that does not lead to a deterioration in the front-line public services and make sure that we have the investment that is necessary for the long-term growth of the economy," Brown said.

    The Conservatives, who lead Labour by a substantial margin in polls, pledged at their annual conference last week to freeze pay and boost the retirement age for government workers in an effort to strengthen the government's finances.

    Sounds like a plan to me!

  10. Well its hard to understand just how happy the bloke who is talking about the crash of his countries economy is.

    Is this crazy talk?

    I gess all things are possible how ever are they probable?

    Is it possible for the Fed to up interest rates to 2% in one day? That would stop the carry trade dead, and gold would come crashing down.

    Can you imagine a time when no one wants to hold paper money as it is a sure way to finantual loss and as a result countries competing with each other to up interest rates to save there sad sad dollar. This to is possable.

    I think the USA is on a path to inflate its way out of debt, its like being in a group of people in a small room and letting out a quiet fart, it is foolish to admitt it, people are reluctant to be the first to complain as "he who smelled it dealt it". America has farted and people are trying to get away from the smell.

  11. Ok Ok OK Here is how governments make inflation Hmmmmmmmmm some times even growth?

    Lower interest rates. Print money. Up the basic wage. Expand public works. Reduce taxs. Make incentives for consumption. Allow imigration. Give money to the plebians as stimulus packages, ( this will allso help the current government get more votes at election time)

    Now here is how fight inflation Hmmmmmmmm a resesion we have to have? for future prosperity?

    Up interest rates. Take money out of circulation. Lower the basic wage. Cut public spending. Increase tax. Import tariffs. Stop all imigration. ( It is highly likely these "tools" can only effectively be used by a military dictatorship.)

    18 months ago the same time as the share market highs AUD = .60 eruo.

    12 months ago the same time as the share market crash AUD = .50euro.

    Today the share market is going up like mad on reduced earnings outlooks AUD = .60 eruo.

    Is it possible that is is as simple as it looks?

  12. AUSTRALIAN $ is dependent on commodities prices (Australian is just one big mine).

    Interest rates in Australia have nearly all ways higher than other countries because the currency is considered risky because of Australias dependance on the mineral comodities for is wealth.

    A fair interest rate is considered to be 10% much higher than the 3.25% of today.

    The AUD is now a carry trade, so risky as should this up turn change direction the minerals that Australia depends on will drop in price draging down the $ , I think many traders will get burned.

    The delicate line the reserve bank has to walk is keeping the dollar low (as it is a mineral exporter) and trying to cool a over heating economy (house prices are going mad as is the share market) and not increasing them to the point were the economy crashes.

    The Australian federal reserve bank will be actively selling freshly printed $ to the rest of the world in a effort to lower the strength of the Aussie.

    So let the games continue.

    Just remember the low interest rates were part of the reason we are now in trouble. Has any lesson bein learned?

    Hmmmmmmmm well maybe, the robber CEOs know they can get capital and support from government and issuing more shares to the people who wait for crumbs to fall from there masters table.

  13. London: British house prices rose for a fifth month in September as a lack of homes for sale helped the property market to erase its losses of the past year, Nationwide Building Society said.

    The average cost of a home increased 0.9% to £161,816 (€176,074), the mortgage lender said. Prices have dropped 13% since the October 2007 peak and are at a level last seen at the time of Lehman Brothers Holdings’s collapse last year.

    The report adds to signs that Britain is pulling out of its worst economic slump in at least a generation as consumer confidence improves and mortgage approvals pick up.

    This story appeared in the printed version of the Irish Examiner Saturday, October 03, 2009

    Just what is going on?

  14. No wonder share prices have been going up then, is this the banks trying to avoid there insolvency being exposed further?

    Money goes were it does best! Banks and other speculators have put the money in to shares for one reason: returns.

    Why? Hmmmmmmmmmm well I recon its because they are betting interest rates will not go up!

    Why? Hmmmmmmmmmm Iam guessing the old rules will not apply under the current situation were most countries all over the world are treating their currency just like confetti at a wedding.

    Iam wondering if that poster Daddy Bear? may be some kind of a profit

  15. Hey when was the Euro floated ? what was the pound worth when it floated? In three years from now what will the pound be worth against the euro?

    Iam guessing it will be worth the same amount as each other, that is off course if the EU is still working and not split up into countries who are looking to improve the lot of there citizens. In hard times the ranks close.

  16. Belfast Boy I like how you say it as it is ! yes all these so called experts have there own agenders, you sould be angry, very angry. globaly governments are trying to keep up house prices with super low interest rates , the idea is to stop deflation (if house prices drop 2 low it will be a depression) but it allso has the effect of encouragering desperate people to borrow so that they may realise the dream of home ownership. At some time soon inflation may soon roar I hope it does not , but the world governments seem to be in competition as to who can have the lowest dollar. to fight inflation only 2 things can be done : up interest rates and remove money in circulation, more than likely they will just up interest rates. If this happens the people that have been lured into a morgage will suffer. Shame on these government officials.

    Buy property now ? I think the odds are against you. ( just cannon fodder)

  17. Posted 29 Sep 2009 6:09 PM

    The RBA's bubble puzzle

    Roberts' speech was a welcome acknowledgement of the down-side of rising house prices – something I haven't seen in previous RBA statements. However, there is also a sense of futility about the position the RBA is in, because the paper also acknowledges the down side of falling house prices. One reason why Australia hasn't yet experienced a serious financial crisis is that our house price bubble is the only one that hasn't yet deflated. But if it does, Roberts acknowledges that we could experience the same runaway collapse in credit and the economy we've seen elsewhere.

    So the RBA now has to play Goldilocks – it must keep house prices from rising (Mummy Bear) and stop them from falling too (Daddy Bear), thus keeping everyone comfy (Baby Bear). A fine tuning act of exquisite delicacy. After the last four years, I doubt that anyone has any confidence in the ability of economists to fine tune anything.

    So the odds are that (a) the government's First Home Vendors Boost (let's call it what it was – not a handout to help first home buyers in but an encouragement to them to borrow up big and give it to vendors to sustain prices) will indeed cause a new bubble to inflate, which the RBA will ***** with a rise in interest rates and (B) the tiny rise in rates will cause a huge increase in debt servicing costs for over-leveraged first home buyers, causing a collapse in house prices.

    Of course, the removal of the boost at the same time means that the volatility of prices will be amplified by the two wings of government acting against each other, but changing strategies at almost the same time in a way that will drive house prices down.

    2010 should be an interesting year for property. I will probably have to walk to Kosciouscko at its beginning; Rory may have to consider a fitness regime at its end.

  18. You must have a bundle of correspondence that might be of interest to your local Trading Standards.

    Saturday, September 26, 2009 Previous editions

    Ireland:Dry with lengthy sunny spells in most areas Dry with lengthy sunny spells in most ar »

    Email+ Email+ Email+ Share+

    Wilson to sell 700 properties

    Saturday, September 26, 2009

    London: Fergus Wilson, the former mathematics teacher dubbed Britain’s buy-to-let "king," says he’s selling 700 rental properties before interest rate rises bring "slaughter" to landlords in Britain’s housing market.

    Wilson, who together with his wife Judith rank among the 1,000 wealthiest Britons according to this year’s Sunday Times Rich List, said it was inevitable that interest rates would rise from a historic low, pummelling rental landlords.

    "You’ve got a lot of people who have taken out a mortgage and are right up to their throats" in debt, said Wilson as he settled into a black armchair at a hotel in Maidstone, south- eastern England. "As soon as rates go up, they’re going to be slaughtered."

    Rates are forecast to rise, hurting buy-to-let landlords in particular because they pay more than other mortgage borrowers.

    Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/business/wilson-to-...l#ixzz0SBRskOLf

  19. Only 5 boats anchored up, take a look at this lot anchored off Keppel Harbour in Singapore

    Ghost Fleet - Daily Mail


    Singapore Harbour is a sight to see from the air, A month ago I flew over it was so full, it was the same a year ago. I also saw container ships traveling from Australia to Asia. Just what is going on? Share market is going up real fast, gold too, interest rates are going no were, governments flooding the market with bonds and cash. No inflation no deflation. Is it possible we will see another bust?

    Hey nice image of the drinker. It tasts the same out of a glass anyway. Would you say the bottle was half empty or half full?

    I may be wrong but she looks like she is using the grog to numb the pain of living, cant say as I blame her as I have done it myself many times. I cant read the lable on the bottle is it leg opener?

    The bottle is half empty as she is drinking it down. If she was filling it up it would be half full.

  20. "I agree the language of this resumption of normality is very interesting."

    "Luckily, now the ship is safely back in berth and prices have fallen to a more affordable level by 30-40%"


    In Ireland what does it mean when a property is advertized : AMV 130,000 Euro , House for sale . For sale by public auction. (executors sale) unless previously sold.................. Is 130,000 the pice you can buy it for now? or is it the reserve price at auction? Nothing in Ireland is what it appears to be, as I have learned from experiance.

  21. No, they repossess the property as usual. Thus swapping ever useless dollars for tangible overseas assets. Simples ;)

    The actions of ACC Bank in the courts against two developers in the past week should be making the minister and the Irish-owned banks very edgy.

    In one case, a valuer told the High Court that the assets of one developer in Sandyford, valued in the books at €22m, were probably worth €500,000.

    Outside Dublin, most land and property values are reckoned to be down by about 80%. Our problem is that virtually no market exists and the sceptics are saying it’s not a case of the wheels falling off the wagon – there were no wheels on it in the first instance.

    What the Government does to protect the taxpayer in the case of NAMA, is becoming fraught with difficulties. The deeply sceptical believe even if banks get further billions of our money this crisis is so deep it will take more than favourable borrowing terms to get us out of this massive crater.

    The banks remain "nervous" about lending and evidence to date strongly suggests they have used the Government’s €7bn to shore up their seriously depleted balance sheets.

    They still need substantial funds to shore up their books and while the minister insisted nationalisation was not "inevitable", his choice of words left that door wide open.

    It is not inevitable, but the huge concerns among businesses of all sizes over lack of credit brings that day closer unless banks start lending.

    Somewhere in Government, the penny must drop that we have an economy to save, not just a banking sector scuttled by greed

    Read more: http://www.examiner.ie/business/we-have-an...l#ixzz0MFKCCWPP

    Ireland is a basket case

  22. Peak to trough drop of 40% from 08 to 2013, so I guess he will be a tenacious one eyed bear like the kind that you get around here and hold off on his admission that he simply got it very wrong and wont embark on the hill walk right up until 2013. Even though they will be well into the +50% by then. He will have an economic model thats shows they are about to go into freefall.

    I would disgaree with the twilight zone comparison with the UK, I would say that the UK is in the basket zone.

    Your prediction of + 50% is as bold as the good doctors - 40%. 3 or 4 years is a long time , try to hang of a tree branch for 3 or 4 hours or pay a mortgage when unemployed, this global economy is dieing a death of a thousand cuts. My money is on -40%

  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.