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Everything posted by bennymac

  1. beautifully summarized! my personal view is similar, asset price deflation with day to day living expenses inflating. i think going forward asset speculation is going to be much less ingrained in the average persons psyche. obviously this is only a personal view and time will tell but my outlook is formed on the following macro trends: * government deficits in the western economies will result in significant public sector job cuts, whether this happens quickly or via natural attrition, we will no doubt face a future with far smaller governments. sure, the political environment may change
  2. anyone know what kind of net yields residential property in the prime U.S states is selling for? just interested to know what kind of gearing people are lathering themselves up with.
  3. thanks for the help infektd, i get the jist of what your saying and what i was missing. in regards to the inflation, yeah i think that may be it- the USD bounced because the market has faith in bernanke to raise rates to keep inflation down (as a result of the CPI jump)... but who knows, i read somewhere that hes more worried about asset devaluation then he is inflation? scary times, but anyway thanks again ben
  4. thanks for the feedback, its been helpful. 'Unaffordable housing does not mean that rents must rise' Ok. But what happens when building starts collapse and supply of housing drops? In regards to the rent rises: what we have seen here in Australia is a massive increase in rents, but slight slips in actual house prices. Wage growth obviously hasnt been the prime driver of rental growth given its been running at about 5% and rental increases 25% p.a + for the last 24 months. Strong natural increase and migration have been the factors. People still need a roof over there heads. In regards to
  5. Hey guys, thought id make a post here because no doubt most of you are much more cluey than me when it comes to macro effects. Im trying to get my head around the consequences of a sustained rise in the U.S CPI. My personal belief is that the analysts have not given enough thought to rising rents in the states. the fed CPI weighs rent increases quite heavily, and like in Australia (which has just seem a massive boost in residential and commercial rents post boom due to a strong demographic situation but unaffordable house ownership) now that housing starts are appearing to fall and supply is
  6. I work in the residential development industry up in Brisbane. Moved over from commercial valuations about 6 months back. This is really going to hurt, margins are already way too tight, added holding costs on our construction sites bleh we can wear that but the change in sentiment will be the real worry; were taking 90+ days to flog our stock and with this rate rise resales are going to get hurt. The only upside i see is maybe we are going to be able to source raw sites cheaper, but bleh. yuck
  7. Hey guys We get alot of data, reports, and opinions here on HPC. I love reading them and trying to gauge the feel of the market. What i'd like to start a thread on is something a little different... an outlook for where we all work. 90% of us here on HPC must have jobs, and what im interested in is how is the sentiment of your employers, workmates. is business roaring? plans for expansion/downsizing, hows trading... each individual story will be interesting in its own way and may offer a generalized leading indicator for business sentiment... ill start i work as a valuer for a multi-layered
  8. australia has been lucky in the sense that we have had a commodities boom to support the housing downturn. NSW is in quite a bad shape, because it has no real mining sector, which means basically it has missed the boat. theres no pressure to cut rates over here basically because people still have wads of money in there pocket due to the mining boom (whether it be direct or indirect) and retailers are still doing ok... thats not to say things are rosy, just that we arent facing the consumption crisis you guys in the UK have right now. house prices will revert to their long term average when
  9. Edhutch, Your opinions are interesting. Earlier on in the the thread you mentioned that the MPC takes a 2 year stance when looking at any cash rate decisions. I'd argue that the MPC cant cut rates without causing much more serious problems in the medium term to long term. A rate cut will have a serious effect on the pound, regardless of how much pessimism is already priced in. The cost pressures on imports caused by a further weakening, in line with oil which is now at $60 a barrel (and not looking to go significantly up or down anytime soon), I just cant see where the inflationary pressures
  10. hmmm U.S, as announced yesterday, is still on a strong tightening policy. Their interest rates have just risen and will continue to rise. The Bank of England cant afford to lower Interest Rates--> A lowering of the interest rate in England will cause a further, sharper, and much more brutal weakening of the Sterling, which will result in the cost of exports becoming much higher, which will add to inflation. This considered, with also the added inflationary measures of Oil (If it stays up at High $50's p. makes an interest rate cut impossible. VI's know that an interest rate cut isnt possi
  11. Its a vicious cycle. Im a junior valuer in Australia, i think you poms call them surveyors? Even though we dont have the supply side problems of the London economy and we've been able to ride out credit/housing issues on the back of the commodities boom, our housing bubble is even more inflated (just not as advanced into the cycle as you Brits). It has come to an abrupt stop, as was always to be expected, particulary in Sydney and Melbourne where prices have come back. As im abit of a cynic its dissapointing in away because Queensland and W.A, 2 major commodities based economies have been abl
  12. the economic implications of even a tenth of these debt-burdened people declaring bankruptcy would probally spell an end to the western economies. the flow through effects on spending, cons confidence & financing would devastate. thats without mentioning how badly the banks bottom line would be put out.
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