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mwcf

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About mwcf

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  1. I dunno about the property angle but I got the hots for K almost as bad as I have for the B!
  2. Thanks for the pleasantly courteous response. Whilst I do own some properties in Scotland (thankfully debt-free), I currently rent where I live in England. As posted elsewhere here on this forum I want to buy here in England and have £250K as a deposit. I'd LOVE my own house again here, but am wary about buying in when prices likely have further to fall - certainly during the next year I would have thought. The dilemma is how long to wait. I'd trade losing another 5-10% in the next year or two in exchange for the pleasure of having my own place, but not 15-30%...... So a bit like you I guess
  3. So you lot actually desperately WANT the value of your houses to fall further?? Or is everyone here so well-informed that you all sold out at the top? Or are most posters here p!ss-pot poor and renting??
  4. A few thoughts from a HPC forum member (and something of a bull in relative terms here..) of 24hrs – if for no other reason than to give you lot something to flame! 1. HPC CONSENSUS Not surprisingly, the views here are heavily biased towards doom and gloom. As a newcomer to this forum, I HAVE to ask myself just how representative is the overall consensus here in terms of what’s REALLY going to happen this next few years? At the end of the day, the fact must surely remain that NO-ONE REALLY KNOWS! 2. HOUSE PRICES vs BUILDING COSTS Even if building/development land becomes valueless (unlikely), then surely houses will still be worth what it costs to build them? For a decent spec. detached 4 bed house in my area – incl. all prof fees, services etc., this still gives us say £175K. It is IMO hugely unlikely that labour costs will go down and hugely likely that material costs will go up. So how could housing EVER go back to 1985/1990 values as is sometimes touted here? 3. GLOBAL CONTEXT & FINANCE OK so China and the Oil States hold a sh!tload of Western debt/currency. It seems to me unlikely that they will want to in any way bite the hand that feeds them i.e. buys their exports or feck up the currencies of that same hand. I also feel that it still remains HIGHLY likely that the financial whiz-kids will find new innovative ways of at least partially re-inflating things back to a medium-term sustainable level whereby the wheels do not actually fall off: it certainly isn’t in the interests of the ‘powers-that-be’ for the wheels to fall off no? 4. HOW MUCH BAD DEBT IS THERE REALLY? When I see figures like say $2Tn of SP and $2Tn of Alt-A and ARM as compared to US mortgage debt of $8.5Tn, just how meaningful are those figures? What I mean is this. If in 2007 the apparent wealth out there was 10 units, then just how much of that 10 units was absolutely bad/toxic/illusionary?? I would say 1 unit at the absolute most not least BECAUSE THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF THOSE REPOSSESSED/FORECLOSED HOUSES AND THE DEMAND FOR THEM WILL STILL BE THERE! When I look at where I live and the people I know, what is inescapable is that there IS a LOT of REAL wealth out there, much of which IS waiting to return to the property market. I’ve always thought of property as split into two - those who need to borrow and those who don’t. And the last group won’t return until the first group do and vice-versa and THAT’S what is causing much of the stagnation at the moment. 5. SUPPLY & DEMAND/THE NEED TO MOVE What is evident at the moment is a distortion of the market whereby FTBs are struggling, supply is limited since people are holding off putting their houses on the market since they don’t want to face lowered asking prices/values and/or they don’t fancy ‘chancing’ their house on the market because of HIPS. Other sellers are still living in cloud cuckoo land and asking way too much. Better houses in better areas still seem to be moving since buyers are cash/equity-heavy – as such I still think that there will be a greater divergence between homogeneous housing such as semis and flats (the price of which will continue to be most severely hit) and the better stock in the better locations (the price of which will hold up relatively well. I know many will say ‘ah but the upper end will still be hit albeit later on and perhaps harder’ but doesn’t the basic law of supply and demand still apply? A significant amount of pressure IS building up - births, deaths, marriage, divorce, relocation, aspiration etc. – for people to move. This isn’t going to go away. Well that’s 30 minutes of my life used up. FLAME AWAY!! (I can take it.) Regards and happy property-investing to all, mwcf
  5. A few thoughts from a HPC forum member (and something of a bull in relative terms here..) of 24hrs – if for no other reason than to give you lot something to flame! 1. HPC CONSENSUS Not surprisingly, the views here are heavily biased towards doom and gloom. As a newcomer to this forum, I HAVE to ask myself just how representative is the overall consensus here in terms of what’s REALLY going to happen this next few years? At the end of the day, the fact must surely remain that NO-ONE REALLY KNOWS! 2. HOUSE PRICES vs BUILDING COSTS Even if building/development land becomes valueless (unlikely), then surely houses will still be worth what it costs to build them? For a decent spec. detached 4 bed house in my area – incl. all prof fees, services etc., this still gives us say £175K. It is IMO hugely unlikely that labour costs will go down and hugely likely that material costs will go up. So how could housing EVER go back to 1985/1990 values as is sometimes stated here? 3. GLOBAL CONTEXT & FINANCE OK so China and the Oil States hold a sh!tload of Western debt/currency. It seems to me unlikely that they will want to in any way bite the hand that feeds them i.e. buys their exports or feck up the currencies of that same hand. I also feel that it still remains likely that the financial whiz-kids will find new innovative ways of at least partially re-inflating things back to a medium-term sustainable level whereby the wheels do not actually fall off: it certainly isn’t in the interests of ANY of the world-wide ‘powers-that-be’ for the wheels to fall off no? 4. HOW MUCH BAD DEBT IS THERE REALLY? When I see figures like say $2Tn of SP and $2Tn of Alt-A and ARM as compared to US mortgage debt of $8.5Tn, just how meaningful are those figures? What I mean is this. If in 2007 the apparent wealth out there was 10 units, then just how much of that 10 units was absolutely bad/toxic/illusionary?? I would say 1 unit at most not least BECAUSE THE INTRINSIC VALUE OF THOSE REPOSSESSED/FORECLOSED HOUSES AND THE DEMAND FOR THEM WILL STILL BE THERE! When I look at where I live and the people I know, what is inescapable is that there IS a LOT of REAL wealth out there, much of which IS waiting to return to the property market. I’ve always thought of property as split into two - those who need to borrow and those who don’t. And the last group won’t return until the first group do and vice-versa and THAT’S largely what is causing much of the stagnation at the moment. 5. SUPPLY & DEMAND/THE NEED TO MOVE What is evident at the moment is a distortion of the market whereby FTBs are struggling, supply is limited since people are holding off putting their houses on the market since they don’t want to face lowered asking prices/values and/or they don’t fancy ‘chancing’ their house on the market because of HIPS. Other sellers are still living in cloud cuckoo land and asking way too much. Better houses in better areas still seem to be moving since buyers are cash/equity-heavy – as such I still think that there will be a greater divergence between homogeneous housing such as semis and flats (the price of which will continue to be most severely hit) and the better stock in the better locations (the price of which will hold up relatively well. I know many will say ‘ah but the upper end will still be hit albeit later on and perhaps harder’ but wealth is wealth and doesn’t the basic law of supply and demand still apply? A significant amount of pressure IS building up - births, deaths, marriage, divorce, relocation, aspiration etc. – for people to move. This isn’t going to go away. Well that’s 30 minutes of my life used up. FLAME AWAY!! Regards to all, mwcf
  6. So we're all fooked then So if I don't buy another house, WTF do I do with my £250K deposit? Is it even safe spread across a few bank accounts in the form of cash until early 2010??
  7. Whilst I see that the wider view here is that prices will slump to 40%-50% below-peak, this is across the whole of the UK for all property types. I guess the current consensus here again is that we are currently 20-25% below-peak - or halfway down. Where I live in the Whitby area, the housing market here is a little atypical in that over half of transactions are cash. Whilst house prices overall in the Whitby area have over the last 2 years fallen about 12.5%, prices for houses in the more-sought-after micro-localities have only dropped by about 5% or so and whilst such houses are still selling they are doing so far more slowly. Given that I know (as a Chartered Surveyor myself) that the aforementioned figures/stats for Whitby are broadly correct (in so far as such things ever really can be), this begs the question of how much lower a good property (amenity, views) with a really good (desirable/kudos-factor) address will go even if the market as a whole dips 40% peak to bottom? I'd say 10-15% or so. This whole arena of debate is particularly pertinent to my own situation in that I currently rent and would really like to (once again as I have typically in the past) own my own home. I am looking to spend around £350K or so and have £250K as a deposit. Borrowing £100K does not worry me particularly as interest rates of 10% on that would not cause to me to break out in much of a sweat. What unnerves me is the obvious possibility of paying £350K for a house now that would cost me significantly less (like £50K less) in another year's time. But given as aforementioned that prices for houses in good addresses here have only dropped a small amount, I don't really (want to, maybe!) see that they will drop a great deal more in the next year or two. I base this on the basis that the UK housing market is conglomerate of many smaller markets and that it is the more homogeneous semis and flats that will take the brunt of further drops (as they indisputably already have) than will houses the like of which I will be looking to buy. The big question is - and bearing in mind that I place a significant value in owning my own home (i.e. I could take a £20K drop (ignoring inflation/other factors) as paying for the pleasure of having my own house for the next year or two rather than renting, but not £50K for the same privilege!) - should I buy now or wait another year or so? I'm sure that there must be quite a few other folks in the same situation as I and whom will also likely be similarly interested in the views put forward here. Regards to all, mwcf
  8. Hello all. My first post here on this forum although I've read it as a guest quite frequently. I'd appreciate your views. Let me explain. I am a Chartered Building Surveyor living and working in the Whitby area of North Yorkshire. The housing market here is a little atypical in that over half of transactions are cash. Whilst house prices overall in the Whitby area have over the last 2 years fallen about 12.5%, prices for houses in the more-sought-after micro-localities have only dropped by about 5% or so if at all and such houses are still selling albeit more slowly and the heady days of readily achieving 10-25% over ask are long gone..... My situation is that I currently rent and would really like to (once again as I have typically in the past) own my own home. I am looking to spend around £350K or so and have £250K as a deposit. Borrowing £100K does not worry me particularly as interest rates of 10% on that would not cause to me to break out in much of a sweat. What unnerves me is the obvious possibility of paying £350K for a house now that would cost me significantly less (like 50K less) in another year's time. But given as aforementioned that prices for houses in good addresses here have only dropped a small amount, I don't really (want to, maybe!) see that they will drop a great deal more in the next year or two. I base this on the basis that the UK housing market is conglomerate of many smaller markets and that it is the more homogeneous semis and flats that will take the brunt of further drops than will houses the like of which I will be looking to buy. The big question is – and bearing in mind that I place a significant value in owning my own home (i.e. I could take a £20K drop as paying for the pleasure of having my own house for the next year or two rather than renting, but not £50K for the same privilege!) – should I buy now or wait another year or so? I'm sure that there must be quite a few other folks in the same situation as I and whom will also likely be similarly interested in the views put forward here. Regards to all, mwcf
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