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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Dorkins

  1. With supply heavily constrained and almost certain to remain so in NIMBY England there's not much the housing minister can do to affect house prices, the demand side policy levers are all with Rishi over at the Treasury.
  2. Tale as old as time, public sector worker earning national payscale in a low income part of the country outbidding the local private sector workers for housing. Should marry a teacher or a GP to complete the set.
  3. Sad thing is in the early days of this show that's basically what they did, take an ordinary person round some ordinary places and help them figure out which one suited them best. In the beginning the house price disease wasn't quite so bad so they weren't looking at completely grim places. As you say it gradually morphed into today's weird aspirational theme park where it's only people with post-HPI equity or very high earners.
  4. Interesting to observe that the tendency of some posters to punch down increases when their investment portfolio is doing well. There are honourable exceptions though e.g. byron78 who appears to be sympathetic to asset-poor people despite his comfortable position.
  5. Yes it's a bit weird and political/judgemental, not sure why the ONS felt the need to add that label.
  6. Should be a lot of retirements coming over the next 10-15 years as the late 1950s-1960s baby boom works its way through. Everybody born up to about 1955 has already hit state pension age I believe:
  7. +1 Remoaners should really wind in their little 'jokes' about how much they are enjoying Britain "prospering mightily", it's not helpful right now.
  8. Seems pointless to me making teenagers who don't want to be at school stay on, I've sat in on bottom set classes with 15-16 year olds and there was zero education happening, it was 100% crowd management and busywork. Let the ones who don't want to be at school walk out at 14/15 and put the education budget into adult evening classes for when they calm down in their 20s and realise they might need maths and English GCSE passes to get the job they want.
  9. Sounds like northern cities are going to level up to SE England where 30%+ of properties are in the private rented sector and when a 20/30something buys a normal house everybody raises their eyebrows and wonders which relative died to enable that to happen.
  10. People need a pension pot of £400-600k to get a decent private pension, real returns on investable assets are minimal, therefore the heavy lifting needs to be done by saving large amounts of capital. Average person might earn £1m in a lifetime, take off £400k for the pension and that leaves £600k. Cost of 50 years of adult life between education and retirement at, say, £10k pa comes to £500k and that leaves £100k to buy a house. Of course, most people decide to ignore the pension problem and instead spend £300k on the house and will end up with a £100k pension pot so will retire in genteel poverty. Their choice I guess.
  11. Agreed, given how low wages are these days (including the switch from DB to DC pensions) even £100k would be stretching it a bit.
  12. I suppose we will never know how many of these final furloughed workers were actually the spouses and children of people who own their own companies and not functioning employees.
  13. I don't know what you people with your anecdotes of empty petrol stations and forecourt fistfights are talking about, Boris and Kwazi said it's all getting back to normal now and that's good enough for me.
  14. Do you see value here at £450k for 52 sq m? I don't. https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/59172542/
  15. Went past our local Morrisons on my evening walk, the petrol station was closed with the lights off even though it was still their opening hours. My partner is trying to clear out a backlog of stuff via facebook marketplace, she said a lot of the buyers are cancelling due to worries about having fuel for the pickup. Apparently a lot of the toddler groups are cancelling this week too.
  16. Why do you want a load of Blairite MPs back? Nobody destroyed the real value of wages more than they did.
  17. This isn't an accurate description of Labour party politics, the left were barely clinging onto control of the party during the Corbyn years and now they have no control at all. Most Labour MPs are on the right of the party and the party just changed the leadership election process so that leadership candidates need to win a higher % of MPs' support to be nominated. As there are not enough MPs on the left of the party to meet this threshold this means no Corbyn-type candidate for the left will ever be a candidate for leader again.
  18. Completely agree, the UK's proles are stuck down quite a deep hole with the wage to asset price ratio firmly stacked against them and all three major parties captured by politicians intent on keeping it that way. FPTP and the near-elimination of organised labour (i.e. unions) make it harder to form a political alternative to rally around than it was in the early days of the Labour party.
  19. It just ended up bidding up the price of existing housing, didn't it? Fair play to Boris and Rishi, they recognised an opportunity to juice house prices when they saw it.
  20. If you have a 3 or 4 year old and your salary goes from £99,999 to £100,000 you instantly lose 570 hours of government-funded childcare. This is worth a few thousand pounds of net pay so probably £7-8k pa gross reduction because you earned one pound more.
  21. Good news is at these house prices nobody can afford to have kids so it won't be an issue.
  22. In the end it turned out that reproducible effect was due to inadequate controlling of factors other than smoking in the patient data during regression analysis, but it was a reasonable hypothesis that a small molecule (nicotine) known to interact with the ACE2 pathway which was also known to be the entry receptor for the SARS CoV2 spike protein could be interfering with viral entry in some way. Sadly it was not to be and there is still no effective small molecule antiviral for this virus.
  23. Both pre-settled and settled status expire after a while if you don't maintain UK residency, only getting British citizenship would give people a permanent right to return to the UK.
  24. Just because these EU citizens can legally stay doesn't mean they will stay. A lot of people have rethought their lives over the last 18 months to 5 years and eventually decided to do something different. For many EU citizens living in the UK makes little sense - UK wages are not all that high (certainly nothing like Switzerland or Luxembourg), the quality of housing is poor and their extended families are not here. So why stay?
  25. Current threshold is about £28k so plenty of room for a £5k drop, could even go back down to £20k if they really feel like giving the young a good hard kick. Given that hardly any under-30s are voting Tory these days they might as well maximise revenue from them to buy marginal votes in older age groups.
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