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House Price Crash Forum

MinceBalls

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Everything posted by MinceBalls

  1. I've been looking at something similar. I'd be doing it on a relatively short term basis and would want to be able to pay lump sums off. HSBC do a lifetime tracker @ 1.89% above the base rate. No arrangement fee and no charges for overpayment. Much cheaper than a loan even if IR's creep up,
  2. Debase the currency via low IR's and QE and you end up with inflation... we import pretty much everything we consume from other countries (including oil which is priced in $) and therefore when the pound tanks everything we import gets more expensive = inflation in everything. Blanchflower's answer to that is to fill the gap with more printed money which in turn makes inflation go up again. He would continue this process until hyperinflation destroys everything in it's wake because he is a complete pr1ck with absolutely no clue.
  3. Yes, I'd agree. Unless wages follow inflation then inflation doesn't erode any of the household debt away, it just forces the price of housing down as people have to pay a higher portion of their wages to food and shelter.
  4. Yes, all good points; i'd almost forgotten that actual money (cash) was used to buy some things but think this is less and less % of overall spend these days - most people make purchases on CC in supermarket. Thanks, that makes sense. I guess I was trying to point out that because of abandoning regulations, the money multiplier has gone off the scale and the lines between what the Bank of England print and what us plebs use has become less clear. I understand it is possible for 'CreditFuelPlusTM' but what worries me (and probably lots of others) is that the future is not clear other than it appears we are teetering on the edge!
  5. You can have inflation in base money (more printing by the Bank of England) whilst credit expansion goes into reverse though can't you? We live in a world where credit expansion (M4) has caused a massive bubble in house prices due to the fact that regulations have allowed UK banks to use stupid money multipliers. Surely the issue with regards to inflation / deflation (that PEOPLE experience) is more to do with the expansion/destruction of the CREDIT (M4) that people have - and what fuels massive bank profits. This is where I get confused with INJIN a bit because he insists that printing money (base) is inflationary and that's that. By definition it is inflationary but I don't think the situation is that simple; in the last 20 years, it is what banks have done with that base money in terms of credit expansion that has caused inflation. To me, the relationship between base money and what us plebs use these days (credit) has become broken which has resulted in this massive banking crisis (and insolvency of the banks if they were to accept their losses).
  6. Can I ask what effect this has on the UK economy? Doesn't it weaken the £ against the euro? Which is what the Bank of England want in order to stimulate exports? But what other knock-ons does it have? Surely as IR's go up in the euro they become the more likely place people want to invest their money? Which has a negative impact on the UK trying to raise money on the debt market doesn't it? Which we also need to do a lot of...
  7. Is this the same Carpetright that extended into the premises of the defunct MFI down my way?
  8. Well exactly, if you haven't worked hard to attain it why would you be bothered about the consequences of spending it? If people had more sense you'd be right in thinking people should be much more wary if they have to borrow huge sums - i know I would be - but it appears this isn't the case. I am always going to be outbid by someone willing to spend more borrowed money than I am; I'm just not willing to take the risk with my own dosh! Cash is not always King it seems!
  9. I was thinking about the benefits of being a cash buyer the other day; people think you can move quickly if you are in that position, but it is my experience that people with large mortgages lined up are much more willing to part with their money than those with large cash sums they might have worked hard to save. It appears to me, the more you are willing to borrow, the looser connection with the value you have and consequently those sorts of people are much more gung-ho in bidding for property (they are spending someone else's money and not their own). I for one am not about to pump all my hard earned savings into an overvalued property but I know for sure, when I offer 20% below asking price that some numptie with a massive mortgage lined up is going to outbid me because they haven't a clue about the actual value of what they are putting on the table.
  10. You might say that Sandander knew about this which is why they have rapidly expanded into the UK so as they become one of the UK's 'too big to fall'. Cunning
  11. FRB - Fractional Reserve Banking was one that got me for a while. But understanding the basics of it helped me understand our current situation a lot more
  12. I would agree, it seems complete bullsh1t. They might as well print:
  13. Is it fear that is keeping them hanging in? I mean, in a global environment are they simply afraid of the threat of being frozen out of international trade by those who remain in the euro? I'd ask that for Ireland, Greece, Portugal etc: are they simply afraid of the implied threat of what will happen if they drop out of the euro and default on a portion of their debt? Maybe this fear / threat is what is keeping them all together at the minute?
  14. I am always minded of the pre-crash forecast(s) just as TSHTF of the UK going into recession: weren't 'economists' putting it at 10% chance of recession and similar to the housing market going -ve? These people just don't want to admit it when something is seriously up and so they put silly percentages in their predictions as it makes them look like they know what they are talking about as opposed to picking the numbers out of thin air!
  15. Well that's why I had a question mark at the end of my sentence as I was after an explanation of why we wouldn't end up with a new problem. You've explained to me and I think you do have a valid point - thank you! I am still worried that with the cartels we have in the food industry - akin to those in the oil industry - that the price of food would be manipulated by the markets for the good of the few at the expense of the many. What you describe is a 'free market' and the price / wage balance. I would be worried that we don't live in a free market which operates in this way and so millions (billions) of people worldwide could suffer (die) as a consequence of higher food prices.
  16. PS: look at that 'Input Cost' chart. that must be worrying the Bank of England; at what point does Output Cost start to tick up?
  17. In another story, retailers are falling, the high streets are feeling the pinch and the spectra of real wage decreases of 15-25% over the next few years due to high inflation is all too apparent to the consumer. So what does this survey tell us seeing as we have all been told in the past that the main UK economic driver is the UK consumer? Can someone please reveal the secrets of this survey to me? I've also asked before, surely with inflation running at 5%p/a (actually we all know its more but let's just keep it t that for now), businesses need to increase prices by 5% just to stay on an even keel yoy. Is this 'surge' simply an indicator of inflation?
  18. People are willing to work away from their families in the oil industry because they get paid a mint to do so. Apply the same principle to fruit picking and you'll have very high food costs so you might have solved one problem but you'll have caused another along the way. Wouldn't you? I would agree with Nationalist on his second point which was that we need a benefits system which doesn't make it a nightmare to take casual labour at the last minute. If the system favoured work as opposed to unemployment and making it nigh on impossible to take casual labour when it comes up then we might get somewhere,
  19. Well, there is something quite wrong with Nationalist's response. I am not playing the race card here but he has oversimplified a problem for his own argument (less immigration) which is essentially what politicians like to do. We have a huge problem in this country because whilst there are millions of people who are not working, these very same millions WILL NOT work in many of the jobs Eastern Europeans are more than willing to do. This is a major issue. Using the fruit harvesting as an example, these jobs are temporary (seasonal) and require individuals (some of whom have children in schools) to follow the work around which is simply not practical in a lot of cases. There are many immigrants however who have the flexibility to be able to do this whilst they establish themselves in the UK. This is not a black and white issue (excuse the pun); we need to find a way of overcoming the systemic attitude many people in the UK have to employment and a change is going to take years to achieve.
  20. I would agree with this. Land is too expensive at the minute but add to that the restrictions that local planning authorities impose on you and it just isn't worth the hassle (and vast expense). And this isn't just for listed buildings, for dilapidated barns (ones that are going to fall down within a few years) and various other buildings which desperately need saving.
  21. This reminds me of the episode on Grand Designs when the family sp*nked more than twice the budget on their 'dream home'. Their mortgage was so colossal they didn't know how they were going to make ends meet and they needed to raise a further XX thousand to complete the work. So the mother started popping chillies into bottles and pouring cheap olive oil into them to sell at Borough market for a profit of about £100 for slaving away for a whole week.
  22. So to conclude, it is a completely useless tool if trying to get a picture of the market in the most recent few months. The swings are just too big to be any use where I am looking (+/- 20%)
  23. I feel your pain, I really do! Brighton (centre) is a f8cking joke at the minute with regards to asking prices - 3 -4 bed terraces in good nick are being put up for 550-650K. with a small garden or courtyard! You get better value in Dulwich Village in London but with a cycle ride to work as opposed to a cr@ppy commute.
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