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House Price Crash Forum


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About copernicus

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    HPC Newbie
  1. Old coins are classed as junk silver, which means that if you sell them to a bullion you'll get significantly less than the spot price. It might be better to stick to 1oz silver rounds, which you can buy second hand from dealers or on ebay, but there is currently a very large premium over spot price, which makes silver a poor investment. Better to wait until the premium drops. (I've heard the premium is much lower in other countries, e.g. New Zealand - might be worth trying to buy there instead.)
  2. these graphs are based on figures with no seasonal adjustment. If you look at the black UK average line you'll see a peak happening without fail in the middle of each year (which, since it represents a registered completion price, corresponds to a deal struck and hence market value about 4 months previously, in spring). Take care when calculating the falls that you're comparing the season in one year with the same season in another. In other words, you should only look at YoY comparisons in these charts, otherwise you'll mistake seasonal price falls for the crash. (Note what a good time winter is to buy a house relative to summer.) The graphs from small towns are pretty misleading - too much noise in the data, causing the line to fluctuate. Also bear in mind that the graphs don't show what's happened in 2009 as they are too far behind the curve.
  3. You're missing the point here Bubbs. It's the debt that makes buying with a mortgage a good investment, not the value of the property. Inflation wipes out value of the debt. Of course you could use the same principle to buy something better than property with debt, such as gold or sugar or antiques or anything, but property is the only kind of major asset that most people can buy on leverage. The answer to the OP is a resounding yes. Inflationists and hyperinflationists should be buying property before the inflation phase begins, which mean now. How many people on this forum will have the balls to do so? Probably none. It's counter-intuitive and contrarian if you believe the crash has a lot further to go.
  4. I'm not Hamish. Look at my previous posts.
  5. Biased moderation is the reason this forum has become a cult for those hoping the crash will continue. If moderators can't remain impartial in deciding which aggressive posters should be labelled as trolls (invariably bulls are labelled as such), then they shouldn't be moderating. Policing a forum to prevent abuse is justifiable, but targetting only those eople who hold a particular point of view about the housing market is not.
  6. I suggest you get a bike and draw a 15 minute cycling radius around your workplace. Then choose different parts of the zone to explore for rental possibilies on www.globrix.com. If you want to be within walkable distance of Aldgate, you'll have to pay an arm and a leg, so extending your search and cycling to work will save money and give you a better quality of life.
  7. in my experience estate agents always say there's "another offer on the table". Nothing makes potential buyers eager to close a deal than the thought that other buyers want the house too. It's usually a lie.
  8. wonderwoman, I'm sorry to hear that the boom & bust has forced you to put your life on hold. But you shouldn't feel that buying a house is a necessary precursor to starting a family. It isn't, and there's no longer any social stigma attached to renting now that the house price bubble has burst. If security of tenure is the issue, you could look into getting a long let. A two-year tenancy is enough to get settled and have a baby or two. The problem is that house prices do have further to fall and you'll burn your fingers by impatiently jumping into the market too soon - an especially dangerous thing to do if you need a mortgage. The only situation in which anyone should consider buying a house at the moment is if they can buy outright for cash, and even in that case the figures still don't stack up well. Because of the emerging problems in bond markets and rising inflation expectations, mortgage rates are going to start rising over the next year or so - possibly very sharply. That's going to choke off demand for houses and push prices down, so we'll see another leg down in the crash. My advice is to think outside the box. Find a long let on a nice house where you can start a family and start businesses. No point delaying either of those - life is short. But stop worrying about becoming a home-owner. There's no chance you'll get left behind by rising prices in the next decade, and you'll almost certainly give your kids a better start in life if you rent for a few years and let house prices come back down to sustainable market levels.
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