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Harry Sacks

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Posts posted by Harry Sacks

  1. 20 hours ago, ZeroSumGame said:

    IIRC,  according to the teaching of Nobel prize winning economists Reinhart & Roggoff , is that the point of no return for  a country's economy is when DEBT:GDP ratio reaches 90% . Britain's such factor is in the late 80% bracket (87-89?).

    Should their hypothesis be correct, Britain is on the 'toast' horizon.

    Both Italy and Japan make interesting academic examples of  the above.

     

     

    Public-Debt-UK_GDP.png

  2. On 29/03/2018 at 11:57 AM, TonyJ said:

    When interest payments on the national debt become so large there is nothing left to spend on anything else, such as health or benefits, public spending will be forced to a complete halt.

    So people calling for an end to austerity are paradoxically calling for a halt to public spending. Bizarre.

    But it has never happened despite libertarian loons crying out for decades. 

    Most AAA sovereign debt is held in pension funds so to say it is wasted money is debatable.

    Hedge funds that have basic understanding of MMT have made fortunes when vigilantes short nations that still have the printing press as they know they cannot default.

    Austerity, as we know it today, has nothing to do with fiscal responsibility. It is to prevent a market attack resulting from a perceived trading opportunity that is the upshot of private banks that are too big to bail. The asset footprint of these institutions is multiples of GDP and many of the are leveraged into sovereign debt at high ratios. This is all underpinned by the same credit rating agencies that triple A rated sub prime.

    And why are the banks too big to bail? Because successive governments have relied on them to furnish the economy with private debt instead of using public debt. It's come around full circle and chewed their ****. The real wealth has been pawned to private interests and rented back to us and the nation held to ransom while they made off with the cash.

     

  3. 21 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

    Hi All.

    I'm just about at 2000 twitter followers on the housepricemania account.

    I said I was going to pack it in at that level.

    I've spread the word as best I can but I'm done now, it's exhausting. 

    We're getting out while the getting is good so I really dont have the time for this now.

    Does anyone want to take it on ? ( for the 3rd time ) 

     

     

    i'll do it.

  4. 20 hours ago, oatbake said:

    The thing that scares me the most is that the government might try (covertly or overtly) to inflate away everybody's debts. What would stop this happening? Now that interest rates cannot be cut, what is to stop the government just firing up the printing presses (QE etc)? 

    I know inflation hurts everybody, but I feel as though people now just would not link it with the actions of the government and it could be seen as an easy way out...

    BTLers are still toast though...

    Thoughts?

     

    I wonder about this too. I also wonder how many traders/hedge fund managers know their Modern Monetary Theory these days. It seem like the ones who do have made a killing in the past by loading up on sovereign debt with borrowed money when yields were crisis high knowing full well that it's impossible for a sovereign to default while it has its own central bank. This is not the case for most of Europe, of course.

    One way to look at this maybe the worldwide $14T in QE since 2008..... where's the inflation other than assets?

    I don't think we can inflate away in isolation in the same way we can't be austere if everyone else is being austere.

  5. 15 hours ago, adarmo said:

    Dec 2008 AWE £425

    Dec 2018 AWE £512

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/earningsandworkinghours/timeseries/kab9/emp

    You are entitled to your own opinion but you can't just invent facts without risking being called out on it. 

    You could say something more insightful such as House prices have increase by x% over y period yet average salaries have increased by z over the same period and then everyone could see the issue. 

    If wages had kept pace with inflation that 2018 figure would be £540.

  6. 24 minutes ago, Meerkat said:

    Really - so what is the monetary system? Do you have a clue how fractional reserve banking works and if fiat is the means of exchange  and store of value what laissez fair market would choose if given choice? You start with a corrupted, state enforced system in the first place and then blame the consequences on free market?

    LOL! It's been corrupted by deregulation. 3-6-3 banking was relatively stable by today's standards. 

    It's not what you use as money it's all about who controls the quantity. The free market has been handed the reins and withing 40 years their asset base is multiples of their sovereign's GDP. They have even managed to socialise the risk, after they completely externalised it, of course.

  7. 6 minutes ago, Fence said:

    A bit economically illiterate, like the broken window fallacy, however the issue I had with the analysis was it also included non- tax credits like housing even though it was billed as being just about tax credits.  To be clear, tax credits are, financially, a taxpayer funded subsidy to (mainly) big business and, politically, are the creation of a client state.  I have negative respect for its author - crash Gordon.

    I agree. In short time their value is eroded anyway. Ultimately this money expands bank balance sheets to the bloated multiples of GDP they are today.

  8. On 10/03/2018 at 8:06 AM, spyguy said:

    They are not poor, far from it.

    They have the an income in the top 20%.

    Divide their income by 16h and you are looking at people who have earnings/h well in the top 10%.

    https://moneyweek.com/merryns-blog/the-truth-about-tax-credits/

    Youve been had.

    What utter shit that article was. Do they think that TC money disappears out of the country or into a mattress? It is spent almost instantly, usually in local businesses that employ people, pay tax, etc. 

    When will people realise that under the present economic/monetary system a sustained budget surplus is folly for those who don't really understand what money is or what it is for.

    Yeah, fine. Chase the wet dream of "fiscal responsibility" whatever the ****** that means. You will end up with shops full to the rafters with goods, crops rotting in the field and a population in poverty without sufficient means of exchange.

    This ******** dogma, dreamed up by US libertarian loonies, is utter fantasy.

  9. 15 hours ago, spyguy said:

    2 kids, both with ADHD.

    One of the adults having some disability so the other can claim to be the carer.

    Its important that the disability are not disability as that might infringe in lifestyle choices/spending.

    If they want to push their luck both adults can try claiming to be the carer of the other.

    Max benefits - kids + (pretend) cripples.

    Anxiety, depression, agoraphobia - just ask the people in spoons what they are signed off on.

     

    You know only sad wankers blame the poor? The real pigs at the trough are in government, The City and industry.

  10. 1 hour ago, Sawitcoming said:

    I can't even believe anyone has swallowed that Corbyn == Venezuela nonsense.

    I am a capitalist. If it were applied in a fair way I would continue to support it.  Our governments are capitalist only in name and so far as it in their self interest to be. Corbyn represents more the form of capitalism that I would like to see. And yes, while there may be many who respect Marxist values in that party, I really doubt the transition of the UK to a communist state even if Corbyn and his pals were secretly plotting this with Czek spies. 

    Imagine what right wing elitist values really exist in the heads of May et al. That doesn't mean they get free reign to apply them all. Corbyn is also Vegan, but I don't imagine he is going to force us all to go vegan or send us to the goulags if we don't convert. If you want to continue to see your country and your life asset stripped then you know who to vote for.

    Personally I have seen enough of this nonsense and I am ready for a sensible change. He has integrity. He is not self interested. He is knowledgable about politics and diplomacy. He is a non corrupt lifetime professional with fair values and willing to tackle difficult topics in the right way, not just the popular way.

    What you will get with Corbyn, is recognition and something done about all of the fundamental problems that are discussed as being at the root of the major issues discussed on this site. 

    ^This

    The rest of you can get back to dry humping Paul Joseph Watson.

  11. I saw this coming fifteen years ago when I worked for them. Centrica sold it to CVC Permira who asset stripped it to the bone. All the property, including the training college, Widmerpool Hall, the equipment, vehicles, all of it - gone. They culled all the old guard and pushed performance targets in every dept. They then flipped it to Saga who ended up with a few porta cabins in Six Hill, an asbestos filled liability in Basingstoke and a massive pile of debt. They bet everything on a favorable IPO.

  12. 8 hours ago, Will! said:

    That's because a CI wouldn't make any difference to how commercial banks create money.

    Are you sure? As I said, that money will end up in the banking system either as a direct deposit, cashflow, turnover, mortgage deposit, etc. Whatever banks hold as cash or cash equivalents they can sell into the repo market OR central bank and extend credit.

    It won't work, it will be inflationary. Until we have an economy based on providing the material needs of the people, rather than artificial scarcity and abstract investments, we will be in a long slow decline.

     

  13. 10 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

    Planned obsolescence? The 386 still works today and does everything it did then just fine. It became outdated through technological progress. 

    Planned obsolescence would be more the case with more modern tech with non user replaceable batteries, deliberate lack of software updates etc 

    Your point was people would hold bitcoin and not buy houses with them because the houses would be cheaper. Again, I disagree. I know of two early adopters who cashed out long ago to buy houses. People buy stuff when they want to and it reaches their threshold of acceptability/affordability. A deflationary environment finds that level more efficiently and fairly imho then the forcible nature of an inflationary environment where you are pressured into buying and consuming just to get rid of the cash before it is toilet paper.

    The 386 may still work, my wax cylinder player still works, so does my VHS. Should we all be commuting with traction engines?

    You're talking about Bitcoin as an investment vehicle, cashing out and spending, and as a universal currency. It can't be both.

    I applaud anyone who has made a killing with Bitcoin but the rest of it is blowing smoke.

  14. 8 minutes ago, Frugal Git said:

    You are Paul Krugman and I claim my £5. The deflation myth again. 

    Things getting cheaper does not stop people buying them.

    Did my Dad hold off buying an 8086 PC in 1988 for £1200 because it would be worthless in a few years? No.

    Did he hold off buying a 386 in 1991 for £1800? No.

    etc, etc etc all the the way up to his current Xeon.

    Most people don’t save or defer spending anyway. As soon as they have money, it goes. Those of us who *might* act according to that economic theory - we are weirdos anyway and save hard even in times of inflation. 

    Seriously?!

    The planned obsolescence of consumer durables can't be applied to residential land or the resource and labour intensity of a construction project.

     

  15. 8 hours ago, adamLancs said:

    It's not been burning my resources. Quite the opposite. :lol:

    There's a lot of fiat hugging going on in this thread lately. Are you just venting or are you seriously trying to talk us around??? We are not looking at 0.25% anymore.... we are moving in thousands of %.... a delusional paradise perhaps, but hey, here's a clue... it's been going on for 9 years...

    Btw, if you've seen it all before, and this is the biggest bubble in the history of the world... where the hell were you? 1 MILLION %. You're telling me you didn't catch 10% of that... you sat the whole thing out on the sidelines? 

    I mean shit. Really?

    I can understand a lot of people being out of their depth here. But you are very clearly not one of those people! You know EVERYTHING, cause you've seen it all before? You are like HPC's Mr Miyagi! I salute you.

    Perhaps you stayed out on principal. Again, I applaud.

    Can't help but wonder, be there a small chance... very small chance that there's a wee bit of resentment stirring in yer very sage belly of wisdom that other people are investing money, making very very healthy returns and watching an economy of tech companies grow around a new technology?

    I think we've got a winner...

    I have to admit, you're very good at sucking eggs so far.

    Maybe you are just trying to protect people from getting caught up in something they don't understand and losing all their money. I can sympathise with that. 

    But still, it doesn't stop the value of their money getting decimated in a savings account.

    Your proposed solution? Or did you just come here to whine?

    So it's a speculative bubble, ahoy!, Captain Obvious. And when it goes bang, we will all rush to sell our coins for 1p each and beg for forgiveness from devout GBP sterling  protectionists Mark Carney, and Ian "how to spend everybody's money and get nothing" Duncan Smith. Don't worry! They will look after our value. :lol: Now there's a fairy tale for ya... Whatever they're full of, you've got it in spades.

    No resentment here. I've had money and property and lost it, and got it back again. To be honest, I've learned that money doesn't make me happy, it has isolated me in the past. Yeah, i could have bought Bitcoin. I was looking into it five years ago but I've been building up a real business with plant and machines, raising a family, that was more important to me.

    It's the unearned income attached to these financial instruments that I have a problem with. Nothing is being produced for the benefit of society. It's a rentiers paradise, getting rich just by owning stuff. For me, it's indicative of a society in decline. 

  16. 2 hours ago, Frizzers said:
    A Nocoiner is a person who has no Bitcoin. Nocoiners (usually Socialists, Lawyers or MBA Economists ) are people who missed their opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a low price because they thought it was a scam, and who is now bitter at having missed out. The nocoiner takes out his or her bitterness on Bitcoin Hodlers, by constantly claiming that Bitcoin will crash, is a scam, is a bubble, or other types of easily refuted FUD. Nocoiners have little to no computer skills or imagination; even when they see the price of Bitcoin go up and its adoption spread they consider all Bitcoin users to be in a collective delusion, with only themselves as the ones who can see what is happening. This attitude comes from being steeped in the elitistpriest cultures found at Harvard, Yale and Columbia, where anyone who is not part of their clique is treated with suspicion by default. The worst nocoiners are tenured academics and goldbugs. Nocoiners believe that the world owes them everything they want because they are part of an elite; they are hysterical liars, brats, prostitutes and losers.

    I'm surprised you'd post something so crass.

  17. 10 hours ago, dannyf said:

    So if I loan bitcoin to buy real estate does it make it more viable? I’m not trying to argue but I’m finding it really difficult to understand your position regarding fiat, money, bitcoin and other assets, eg. housing 

    If Bitcoin is fixed quantity and you start offering Bitcoin mortgages, real estate will devalue in nominal Bitcoin. This will discourage anyone holding an amount of Bitcoin from buying a home, if they wait the house will be cheaper.

    Will there be an interest rate? Who sets the interest rate? Any interest rate will also have an effect on the purchasing power of Bitcoin.

    It's the opposite problem with fiat, as regulators have been asleep at the wheel, and allowed banks to direct new money into specific markets which has lead to bubbles. Poor VaR modeling allowed loose lending, etc. There is nothing inherently wrong with fiat. Bitcoin is fiat. It has no intrinsic value, it's a confidence trick like all fiat, except it is not a currency as it cannot expand and allow growth.

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