Gideon Gono
-
Posts
284 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Posts posted by Gideon Gono
-
-
All,
LR data for May is out here:
http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/assets/lib...26june2009e.pdf
Hahahaha - only another 29.8% to go for the bears to think the correction is done.
-
Deflation?
Where?
good point -
-
As a boomer, I whole-heartedly agree. My children, bar a miracle, are stuffed, in spite of both having good engineering degrees. It doesn't make any difference what my house is worth, I bought it to live in, not to "invest" in. I only require to be able to buy like for like if I want to move on.
In fact, it really smarts to see my savings, which I need to live on, being stolen via pathetic interest rates lower than inflation, to basically pay off the excesses of those who robbed my children of their opportunities!
By "those" you really mean "your" generation.
-
A question for all the financial analyst types out there ... Dr Bubb et al...
My opinion is that the HPC will cruise at the current speed 10-15% per year for several years for the obvious reasons of increasing unemployment, wrecked economy, still at very high prices etc. Thats good for a renter like me, but it doesn't seem fast enough given the magnitude of what is going on.
I think the "savior" of the market at the moment (in the sence of it preventing a very nasty crash) is the 0.5% base rate. I can't see the goverment willingly raising that anytime in the next hmmm 5 years? And perhaps its a wise move not to.
But surely there must be some situations that would force it to go up? Threat of currency collapse? Very high inflation? How likely are these? Would anyone bet money on the base rate being > 3% next year?
In one line - When the govt stops buying its own debt they will rise.
-
Rebecca OConnor has taken the baton from Ashworth in the wanton and irresponsible ramping cup, though if anyone actually goes for one of these 100% mortgages in a falling market, then it'll be more like slalom than relay
Maybe the market has finished falling. Or do you honestly think there is another 20 0r 30% to go? The bears need to take a good look at reality.
-
landlords can f*ck off and go bust. tough. business risk, init.
Then where would you live?
-
If you speak to any of the large banks lending departments about interest rate hedging they are all expecting base rates to rise to at least 3/4% within the next 18 months. Of course the volatility of the last 18 months virtually renders any predictions virtually worthless.....
No they wont. The govt can control the interest rates and will. We may see something after the election but until then I doubt they will move at all.
-
Base Rates will stay low for years. Those on a tracker or capped SVR will be laughing all the way to the bank for years.
Those who buy now or in the future may not be so lucky, as the bank margins are currently ridiculous. It doesn't take a lot of years for a 4% rate differential to eat up that 17% (and getting smaller by the day) theoretical saving on house prices.......
Particularly when you tack on the several years of rent it's cost to wait. So true - When i was originally mortgage shopping HSBC's big selling point was "we will never have rates higher than 1% above base". Not the case for a few years I think.
Those on lifetime trackers are laughing.
-
anyone holding their wealth in that PP currency would be taking a real chance
Anyone thinking this would actually happen needs their head read.
-
My public service mole (the same one who told me about Brown's barmy 'Compulsory House Price' idea way back) has revealed another nutty, yet interesting plan that is being tossed around, a Two-Tier Currency! - I kid you not!
If I have this right, the idea is that vendors will be encouraged to reprice their properties back up to 2007 values but in new 'Property Pounds'. Whereas buyers will use the GBP, as we all know & love it, at a ratio of ten to one PP to GBP for property purchase.
The clever part is that vendors do not have to convert their PP stash back into GBP if they do not wish to as special PP savings accounts will be set up. Thus they can keep their money safe until they wish to buy another house.
No interchange of the two will be allowed outside of property sale & purchase until the UK is back on its feet.
At some point in the future the govt. will gradually begin to reduce the differential between the two until parity is restored.
In the meantime buyers will be able to purchase one property (& one only) using the scheme, & sellers can only sell using it. Breaking these rule will be a criminal offence.
The plus point for sellers is that they will (if they have sufficient equity) be able to see all those zeros in their saving accounts knowing that one day they will again be equal to Sterling.
It is thought that this will provide a huge boost to the housing market & allow the deserving to buy a place of their own without BTL scum pricing them out. This sounds so socialist to me that I can't believe anyone from Brown's mob had anything to do with it.
The chances of this idea being introduced are very slim, but who knows what legislation will be imposed when the uk collapses.
With Brown out of the picture this wont happen.
-
But your only rich if you MEW and only until that runs out then you have more debt. If you MEW'd to buy cars holidays etc you have a short term benefit but long term debt. You've effectively bought a car over 25years.
Its a dubious benefit.
The only benefit I can see of high house prices is if you sold up and didnt have to buy another place or rent. For example if you inherited a house.
Who says? If you havent MEWed a penny and bought your house in 2000 you are creaming it.
-
News has no links yet.
Comment made was "rates will be low for a sustained period of time". Can you really see the UK being any different? I cant.
-
If you borrow money, you have to pay it back. It's not a new idea,
For once we agree......
-
We will only get back to 2007 levels of lending if they print.
However in doing that they will unleash inflation.
It's possible that the current level of lending is what would be deemed "normal", although I think we will see another dip shortly.
Unleash? You mean bring back.
-
http://www.reuters.com/article/smallBusine...E55H2P420090618
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/david-lawsky/6/5a9/1a7
Senior correspondent for Reuters covering technology in San Francisco. Covered competition policy in Brussels, and previously covered Capitol Hill, competition policy, the Justice Department and other issues in Washington. Also covered politics in Sacramento, California
A bit Reinhardt, but you get the idea......
Let's play -
BUBBLE HUNT!
Wheres the news value in this? They should be exempt. Without VC companies like Apple, Intel or Silicon Valley wouldnt exist. They get burnt when something they back fails. Move on please.
-
More money to be sucked out of the economy.
So we can look forward to a compound effect from fiscal drag, debt drag and an energy price drag.
The global economy is screwed, the vast majority of people cannot afford these prices.
Its called inflation - dont worry, youll be earning more. Money sucked out of the economy will be printed back in
-
.
So, question 1 to the HPC bulls: Which factors, economic, social or otherwise, do you think affect house prices in the UK?Question 2 to the HPC bulls: Which factors, social, economic or otherwise, do you think have caused the boom in house prices over the last 10-15 years?
Q1 - Inflation will erode debt away, I see very low BoE rates for at least 12 more months, certainly under 5% for the foreseeable future. Ive read the gilts thread and it fails to mention that if the Govt buys its own debt rates will stay low. This magic trick can performed for a while. Why would Brown and King kill the equity and housing markets when they are stablising?
Assets will increase in value with inflation. I dont see the property market being a star performer but decreasing house prices arent good for the ecomomy. Like it or not this is the way Western democracies from the UK to NZ and everywhere inbetween generate wealth. Do you really see that changing? Honestly?
Unemployment is an issue. But this isnt the first time industry has died in the UK and wont be the last. No one makes buggy whips anymore but all those made unemployed from an industries death found something else to do. This time will be no different.
Q2 - People feel secure when they buy a house. Women want a stable enviroment to bring up their kids. Its the human version of a nest. You dont need stocks and shares but you need a roof over your head. This logic combined with one of garanteeed financial gain has powered the market. A fair % of those that shouldnt have got mortgages have been burnt out of the market already. Id take these 20% falls as a correction. They wont drop much more.
-
The artificially low interest rates have changed everything. Until they're forced up by the bond markets, bulls will keep crowing...
Estimated situation of housing costs (South East) in Sept/Oct 2008 :
Rent = 1200pcm
Interest income at 6% from STR fund of 300k = 900pcm after 40% tax.
Increase in purchasing power due to approx 2% price falls per month based on 300k property = 6000pcm
Monthly change of purchasing power position = 6900 - 1200 = +5700.
So not buying is a no-brainer in these circumstances.
Estimated situation of housing costs (South East) in May/June 2009 :
Rent = 1200pcm.
Interest income at 1.5% from STR fund of 300k = 225pcm after 40% tax.
Increase in purchasing power due to approx 0.5% price falls per month (possible rises as well) based on 300k property = 1500pcm
Monthly change of purchasing power position = 1725 - 1200 = +525. This figure is negative in months where prices rise like May.
OK, in theory cash holders are still just about gaining. Not by much though, and when you consider the fear factor of holding cash while Gordon is printing, plus the uncertainties of renting, it's easy to see why people with funds are buying.
It also explains why the number of mortgages are increasing but the lending totals are down.
Add a few morons who are buying with tracker mortgages and you have yourself a bounce.
Bears need normal interest rate levels. Sibley and Rinoa will be happy until we get them.
Really all depends on who is buying the bonds doesnt it. Im picking the Govt will buy a lot of its own bonds. Lets be honest, who else is going to buy them? Recent news reports have indicated this.
You tell me what happens to the BoE base rate when the govt buys its own bonds? Rates will stay at this level for at least 12 months.
-
Mate’s just been offered a Halifax 5.5x salary with a 15% deposit at 6.19%. So much for limiting the income multiples and high deposits. Okay seriously, if this is still happening coupled with ultra low interest rates and greedy f*ck bag sellers… Realized big drops no time soon.
Another mate said he won’t sell his flat for less than £300k (Streatham) Peak price £270k. He will want to upgrade to a house In the next few years. Why would he want his flat to be worth 100k more if the house he'll want to buy will be 200k more? He’s an IFA by the way…
Is this a standard product or was he offered it one off?
-
presumably buyers look at more than one house?
You really dont understand supply and demand do you?
-
Yes, you must be right...
Don't you get tired of
?You just stick to what you are good at - Posting some more news. You havent done it for 5 minutes.
-
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/19/business...ml?ref=business
The calm before the storm, or the recovery?
Im hearing stories that Hedge Funds are starting to hire again. Capital inflows during March and June and been excellent. Too early to tell but it has to bottom out somewhere. The armeggedon so many HPCers were looking forward to isnt going to happen for a few years yet.
-
Keep us posted
I'd rather stick my c0ck in blender than install realplayer
+1 - absolute jank
-
No problem.
By their very nature they are flirting with the very edge of any legal system.
Just look at the 'managers'.
Bernie Madoff? Robert Berlacher? Doug Scott.
Investor yes, professional yes, wealthy yes, but regulated...hardly...
They are a sham and the playground of the corrupt. Yes there are some genuinely good people in there, but I think you are so very very far off base. Kittens, bubble gum, hugs...this is your world, not mine.
Max Keiser has talked extensively about them and his analysis carries so much more weight that some anonymous internet poster using Maggie as their avatar.
In Scotland they have saying...wheest. It applies here.
FREEZE!! FBI....... warning people on investments! Ill tell you this for free the MINIMUM in where I work is 50million USD. Now, you dont get that rich by not being clever with money. We have the FSA in the UK and the SEC in NY constantly watching us. These are facts. The ones you just googled are stereotypes for people who know nothing about how a HF works.
Here's Why Banks Want 25% Deposit From 1st Time Buyers...
in House prices and the economy
Posted
So what about the 90 and 100% mortgages that have started to come back onto the market? You live in dreamland. This is the bottom.