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About Maximus

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  1. Hi thanks. I wanted to see an update on these charts... http://www.wenty.co.uk/reference/zak312.html
  2. This thread is useless without graphs or data on macroeconmic scale.
  3. Electronic goods do get cheaper BUT guess what? They are replaced by the newer version which is just as expensive as the old model. Also HDTVs have come down in price BUT guess what? How many people bought them at £4000. I think the arguement with electronic goods becoming cheaper and having an effect on CPI is overstated.
  4. Please could someone link me to where I can get the latest data for the Avg earnings and mortage repayments. I tried on ONS but failed, it such a crap website to search. Thanks
  5. One way could be that look at those properties that are much higher than your current budget but something you could afford when the market crashes. If you show your wife the house she may get a taste of something far better than your current option. If you used the arguement to buy the same house but cheaper to save some money that probably wont go down so well with Femonics.
  6. I know a puny 0.25% raise wouldnt do much to the typical owners repayments but the base rate forward curve shows a rough 5.75% is expected. Just look at this chart base vs the mortage rates. The higher the base rate goes the greater difference between the mortage and base rate becomes. So if we see a .50% rise soon it may mean a 1-1.5% rise on mortage rates. As shown very recently the lenders have needed to squeeze out all the credit by tightening the differential. And perhaps why the rises havent had too much of an effect. Which wont last as soon as credit tightens.
  7. I agree with you RB. The pound is so overvalued and it just a reaction to higher interest rate expectations- but IR is not the only factor for FX rates, the state of the economy is one other. The UK has to raise rates as costs are getting out of control and not because the economy is doing extremely well! I am quite happy to convert all my GBP into $. As there has been so much talk about it breaking 2:1 for so long I think we will see some panic buying of the pound perhaps upto 2.10 to 1 but then reality of the UK will then kick in.
  8. The Debt IS alot. You cant look at it as i wish i had 50k mortage. its an average! i.e it includes all those people who have paid of their mortages and have 100% equity, which is counted as negative debt in the avergae i.e wealth! How can we all be in debt? Its a zero sum game- so UK as a whole is on borrowed money. Lastly the debt is increasing, increasing more than house prices , more than wages! its also exponetial with people paying penalities for their bad repayments. Question is: If UK could borrow 10trill over a period of 500 years to pay it off, it would help keep HPI from crashing
  9. Yep the graph is Bullocks! Affordability is from a housebuyers narrow viewpoint is monthly disposale income after tax , bills everything and that versus the monthly payment on the mortage. So this will take out all hikes in cost of living and people taking out 100year mortages or whatever. There was a thread recently that showed exactly this and yes it is not at the same point as the last crash BUT it is rising and is so sensistive to any rise in interest rates, its just a matter of time as debt itself is getting bigger (look at the UK debt 1trill to 1.3trill in a year) and with that the mon
  10. Yes but its Foxtons! They have a nice website so you can add 100% on the real price. but this one looks like 300%
  11. This goes with the bulls 'demand outstrips supply' argument... if more people live togther they have more spending power but accept a lower quaility of life... So this has help prices, trouble is how long and how far... Other point is i know many 20 somethings that have bought a house with help from mom and pops. This money comes from somewhere! Pensions, MEW on there own house etc.... would like to see some facts and numbers of the money flow of this apart from the MEWing...
  12. The graph is the most conclusive evidence why we have not had a crash. Affordability on a month to month basis is still manageable... But if you look at the last 3 years or so you can see how sensistive the mortage/earnings are, there has only been a small increase in IRs roughly 1% but an increase of 15% in M/E. In the 80's IR moved up 4%ish and M/E 20% (roughly), anyway my point is that it will not take that much more to get to the 60-70% M/E level, Dec06 was at 45% M/E! and thats what it was like before with a norm of 7-8% rates. 6% IRs should be the kiss of death.
  13. I think they knew what the CPI was going to be last time and thought 'even with the fudging we can only get it to 3%!' so they knew a 0.5% would of been required. So 0.25% last time and same agian tomorrow... CPI 2.9% becasue of refudging... and BOE hopes the real one will come down to this level next month after they rise the IR.
  14. If you wanted to convert your pounds to dollars but avoid the commisions etc, you can in theory spreadbet in instead, its not a perfect hedge but you can roughly do it. Thats what I have done, gone long dollar equlivant to my some of my GBPs. I think tho it will burst 2:1 and then rally like mad... then it will crash back down becasuse fundamentally pound and dollar are both overvalued, the pound just shouldnt be very strong against the dollar- like it is now.
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