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Posts posted by Chomp

  1. Oustanding post Green Bear, glad to bump it up.

    Many of your arguments are supported anecdotally by an EA posting on an Irish forum earlier today:

    "I am an estate agent in Dublin. I can definitely see a marked change in the market. Properties are just not shifting these days. The phones have stopped ringing. The buyers are now being chased whereas 2 months ago they were just ignored because they were made to do all the chasing. There is a glut of properties on the market and we get more and more listings each day. But still the phones don't ring.

    Any offers that we get are well below the asking price. This was unheard of in the past. Sellers are being asked to drop their prices and I think this is just the start. I was selling property in Australia when their market topped after ten years of boom. Ridiculous prices but nowhere near as crazy as here."



    You rightly point out the importance of the construction sector to the overall economy in your post.

    But I think there is a slightly unexpected anomoly in this. Namely, that if construction tanked, the effects on the country would be disproportionately smaller than construction's current economic importance would suggest (something like 18% of people are employed in construction and related industries).

    This is primarily because it would lead to loads of immigrants leaving the country (hello 2012 Olympics!). This would soften the unemployment carnage that one might have expected. I think the majority of Irish people within the 18% would still find work or re-train. The immigrants leaving would be a substitute for mass unelployment.

    And a juicy side effect of all this: Fewer immigrants = fewer renters. Snowball time. Immigrants leave, FTBs sit out, IR's rise etc. etc.

    So the losers would be the govenement coffers (which are obscenely overflowing anyway), the developers, EA's, late-comers to the BTL party, over-stretched mortgage holders and immigrants.

    But the effect on the economy as a whole (especially in terms of general unelployment and the ability of a majority of people still to pay their motgages) need not be that catastrophic.

    Massive HPC + minimum damage to the rest of the economy? Now that would be HPC Heaven.

  2. Not that I need to tell people here this, but if you want to see what a HPC looks like up-close-and-personal, watch Ireland, because our HPC started sometime in the last 4 or 5 weeks. Sometime around, say, September 14th.

    September 13th: Rampant HPI Madness.

    Setember 14th: Fear.

    It has been that quick. Out of nowhere - TV, papers, radio, mates in the pub, work colleagues at watercooler - everyone has suddenly got the fear. It has been absolutely astounding to see how quickly it has happened. I honestly never, never imagined sentiment could turn this quickly.

    Ah, sentiment. Again, naively, I never fully grasped the enormity of the importance of sentiment. Now, it's clear as day that sentiment is the glue that binds the whole mess togther. In a real sense, it is all that matters.

  3. The change in sentiment in Ireland has been so fast it is just staggering.

    Being a perma-bitter pessimist, I keep a regular eye out for bad news. Left the country on business for 4 weeks, come back, and suddenly BOOM! When I left, blue skies for HPI. Suddenly, a few short weeks later, doom and gloom abound.

    In fact, not just doom and gloom, but substantive changes too - price reductions, failing auctions, falling mortgage applications, withdrawn offers, weird new-build incentives (€3,000 worth of white goods if you sign the €750,000 contact within 2 weeks! Yay!), media waking up etc. etc.


    (BTW, if we go first, I'll be very interested to see if it affects the UK market. The Irish are so heavily invested in the UK that it might well be a big deal).

  4. Thanks for posting those links Shedfish - absolutely incredible stuff.

    10x a solicitor's salary buys you a crappy terraced house in Kimmage???? LMFAO. Yeah, ok, that makes sense. Jesus.


    Back OT, I think I'm right in saying that there have been previous 3/4 month HPI slowdowns that have always ended-up turning around again. So not sure we can can with certainty that the latest figures are definitive proof of any kind of meaningful turnaround.

    Still, 100,000 new units this year. Probably c.500,000 new units overall over the last 6 or 7 years - and probably no fewer than 50,000 new units pa for each if the next 5 years at least.

    Population 4.25 million @ 2006 census.

    Go figure.

  5. I'm as bitter and unpleasant a thwarted FTB as the next man (I would sell my mother to Albanian people trafficers in return for a cool apartment) but even I had a tinge of sympathy looking at this site:


    Ok, lots of these people are probably unpleasant wannabee ballers getting due cumuppance for their arrogance and hubris.

    But there's also bound to be a whole bunch of perfectly decent, ordinary people who were simply looking to make a few quid for themselves and ended up, well, screwed.

    It's a cruel world.

  6. I cannot believe that 70% of properties failed at auction last week. Absolutely staggering and surely unprecedented in this country. Wow.

    It also shows just how long it takes for vendors to face reality...they will refuse to accept anything but top, top dollar for a very long time and thus prices (nationally) appear a lot more robust - and for a lot longer - than is actually the case.

    So one day everything is rosy, and then boom, the next day asking prices are down 10% as all vendors realise at the same time that they have overvalued their properties.

    Just shows how easy it is for the whole snowball gets rolling.

  7. Thick or not the Irish are building 80,000 new homes a year and have sufficient currently zoned land to accommodate approx another 350,000 in currently adopted development plans. In the UK a small landed cabal place an artificial limit on the release of development land for home building. If the UK was building at a similar rate you would see 900,000 new build units a year.

    Hi Duplex - where did you get that stat from? It suggests 4/5 years at curent levels, followed by, erm...a precipirtious drop to zero!?? 350,000 "units of space" will not last long. What's your take?

  8. Nobody denies that taking out a 35 year mortgage on a property bought at the top of the market is thick. Fine. We all agree. That is a pretty thick thing to do. Great.

    But that is not what the poster above said. He (I presume it's a he) TWICE said that all Irish are thick (re-read the posts). That is just plain offensive and ruins the thread.

    Anyway, it's old and I don't give a toss really. Thread ruined. Great.

  9. I think Julie Burchill summed that identity up quite succinctly when she wrote about "the Hitler-licking, altar-boy-molesting, abortion-banning Irish".

    So you think that is a "succinct" summation of Irish identity? I agree, because Hitler is indeed my personal hero and I enjoy nothing more than molesting alter-boys.

    In fact everyone I know loves Hitler - my mum especially is a BIG fan of his, although my brother and sister are more into Himmler and my dad is a Goebbles man. Gosh, we have such fun around the pot of potato stew of an evening discussing who the very bestest Nazi is. Whiles away hours I tell you!

    As for the molestation of alterboys, I recently finished a state-sponsored 2 year Diploma in it. It was fab: chat-up lines to use, manual techniques, how to hide the alterboy, what do do if he gets too lippy etc. Very, very informative and I've recommeneded it to all my friends.

    Seamaster, Julie Burchill is smart, successful and funny and can get away with this kind of comment. You, on the other hand, are none of these things so should just fucccking leave it out.

    Gotta go - I'm on the last chapter of Mein Kampf and can't wait to see how it turms out! Seig heil!

  10. Mr Issing said policy vigilance by the Irish Government is required in order to ensure that the increasing number of mortgage loans does not damage the economy.

    He has warned the Government they cannot be complacent and says it is possible for them to prevent the problem, if they tackle the issue immediately.

    I'm a little at a loss as to what Mr. Issing suggests the Irish government does. I mean surely IRs are the only meaningful way to tackle this?

  11. Good compilation Green Bear.

    That comment by Bertie Ahern is one of the most shocking and disgraceful things I have EVER heard an Irish politician say, never mind a Taoiseach.

    He couldn't contain his glee as he said it, clearly displaying utter contempt for non property buyers.

    It was a downright ******ing disgusting remark.

  12. In the interests of balance, one of the bearish commentators quoted on the homepage of HPC, Ed Stansfield, is quoted in the article saying he had overestimated the extent of falls.

    His prediction is 20% falls in next few. But he admits his 7% fall forcast for this year looks wrong, and he has now adjusted his prediction to 2-3%.

    Has he been "gotten at" too?

    So there is some food for thought I'd have thought.

  13. A Bank of Ireland report here recently said that average savings for FTB mortgage applicants (joint and single) in Ireland is €16,000 (c. Stg.£10,700).

    The same report also said that 25% had average "gifts" of €30,000 (c. Stg.£20,000), while the other 75% had no gift.

    Not sure if these kinds of figures are applicable to the UK, but I don't see much reason why it should be massively different.

    (And no, the numbers don't make a hoot of sense when you look at the big picture, but that's what they said! Pulling numbers out of their asses IMO).

  14. Ace,

    Do not, under any circumstances, give spread betting a go (say at IG) without FULLY understanding both the market you're betting on and the science of spread betting itself. By "fully", I mean at least several months and ideally several years of careful observation and paper trading. Just diving in is financial suicide.

    This is an absolutely viscious game and if your are an amateur taking a punt, you are 99.9% likely to lose.

    Also remember, you are not simply betting that "house prices will go down". No, the market has already factored falls into the price you are quoted: what you are being asked to do is to bet on the exact magnitude and timing of that fall. That is a very, very different thing than just betting up or down. It's not like betting Black/Red at the casino.

    (PS Guess what happened to me :D > :( )

  15. Hi Civil Servant - one problem with the current bubble is that it makes perfectly normal, average people like you (no offence!) feel like freaks and failures.

    I too have a very decent salary (well above average, excellent promotion prospects, excellent benefits, very much the kind of job you boast to your mother-in-law about) and frankly 3-4x my salary still looks a million billion miles away from even starting on the ladder.

    I try not to worry about it, although often I do. I try to remind myself that I am in the upper-middle third of the population (rich-middle-poor) and that pure, simple logic alone tells me that if I can't buy, then there is something wrong.

    Box, one bed apartments in not-great areas of town are just about as far as I'd be able to go (and even then we are talking above 3/4x salary + savings + gift).

    Either something's wrong, or I have a lot to learn about the laws of gravity over the next 20 years of my life.

  16. What will Sanity do if he can’t spout ******** on a regular basis. :D

    Never mind that Duplex, what will I do if I can’t spout ******** on a regular basis??

    If Jonathan D. sees this, please give your IPC a go...could be a couple of hundred interested users from Ireland and UK.

    Till then I hope HPCuk memebrs are ok with the odd Dublin/Ireland thread - we have some heavy, scary, ghoulish shit going on here, and it might lift your spirits to hear about it from time to time!

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