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Chomp

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About Chomp

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  1. Oustanding post Green Bear, glad to bump it up. Many of your arguments are supported anecdotally by an EA posting on an Irish forum earlier today: http://www.askaboutmoney.com/showthread.ph...10&page=365 ........... You rightly point out the importance of the construction sector to the overall economy in your post. But I think there is a slightly unexpected anomoly in this. Namely, that if construction tanked, the effects on the country would be disproportionately smaller than construction's current economic importance would suggest (something like 18% of people are employed in con
  2. Not that I need to tell people here this, but if you want to see what a HPC looks like up-close-and-personal, watch Ireland, because our HPC started sometime in the last 4 or 5 weeks. Sometime around, say, September 14th. September 13th: Rampant HPI Madness. Setember 14th: Fear. It has been that quick. Out of nowhere - TV, papers, radio, mates in the pub, work colleagues at watercooler - everyone has suddenly got the fear. It has been absolutely astounding to see how quickly it has happened. I honestly never, never imagined sentiment could turn this quickly. Ah, sentiment. Again, naivel
  3. The change in sentiment in Ireland has been so fast it is just staggering. Being a perma-bitter pessimist, I keep a regular eye out for bad news. Left the country on business for 4 weeks, come back, and suddenly BOOM! When I left, blue skies for HPI. Suddenly, a few short weeks later, doom and gloom abound. In fact, not just doom and gloom, but substantive changes too - price reductions, failing auctions, falling mortgage applications, withdrawn offers, weird new-build incentives (€3,000 worth of white goods if you sign the €750,000 contact within 2 weeks! Yay!), media waking up etc. etc. A
  4. Thanks for posting those links Shedfish - absolutely incredible stuff. 10x a solicitor's salary buys you a crappy terraced house in Kimmage???? LMFAO. Yeah, ok, that makes sense. Jesus. ... Back OT, I think I'm right in saying that there have been previous 3/4 month HPI slowdowns that have always ended-up turning around again. So not sure we can can with certainty that the latest figures are definitive proof of any kind of meaningful turnaround. Still, 100,000 new units this year. Probably c.500,000 new units overall over the last 6 or 7 years - and probably no fewer than 50,000 new units
  5. I'm as bitter and unpleasant a thwarted FTB as the next man (I would sell my mother to Albanian people trafficers in return for a cool apartment) but even I had a tinge of sympathy looking at this site: http://flippersintrouble.blogspot.com/ Ok, lots of these people are probably unpleasant wannabee ballers getting due cumuppance for their arrogance and hubris. But there's also bound to be a whole bunch of perfectly decent, ordinary people who were simply looking to make a few quid for themselves and ended up, well, screwed. It's a cruel world.
  6. I cannot believe that 70% of properties failed at auction last week. Absolutely staggering and surely unprecedented in this country. Wow. It also shows just how long it takes for vendors to face reality...they will refuse to accept anything but top, top dollar for a very long time and thus prices (nationally) appear a lot more robust - and for a lot longer - than is actually the case. So one day everything is rosy, and then boom, the next day asking prices are down 10% as all vendors realise at the same time that they have overvalued their properties. Just shows how easy it is for the whol
  7. Dumbass* 101: > DOW = Market in stocks and shares > Bonds = Governement bonds, with yields based on IRs > So, when the market sees IR hikes down the road, they move money out of S&S and into bonds, hence DOW falls. Correct? * = Me
  8. Hi Duplex - where did you get that stat from? It suggests 4/5 years at curent levels, followed by, erm...a precipirtious drop to zero!?? 350,000 "units of space" will not last long. What's your take?
  9. Nobody denies that taking out a 35 year mortgage on a property bought at the top of the market is thick. Fine. We all agree. That is a pretty thick thing to do. Great. But that is not what the poster above said. He (I presume it's a he) TWICE said that all Irish are thick (re-read the posts). That is just plain offensive and ruins the thread. Anyway, it's old and I don't give a toss really. Thread ruined. Great.
  10. Jesus. Are you going out of your way to be offensive? You are wll aware that lots of Irish people read this site so for crying out loud why not just leave it out.
  11. So you think that is a "succinct" summation of Irish identity? I agree, because Hitler is indeed my personal hero and I enjoy nothing more than molesting alter-boys. In fact everyone I know loves Hitler - my mum especially is a BIG fan of his, although my brother and sister are more into Himmler and my dad is a Goebbles man. Gosh, we have such fun around the pot of potato stew of an evening discussing who the very bestest Nazi is. Whiles away hours I tell you! As for the molestation of alterboys, I recently finished a state-sponsored 2 year Diploma in it. It was fab: chat-up lines to use, m
  12. Firstly, I can confirm the cancer story. Praying leads to increased levels of death. Religion is bad for you and is more lethal than a crack habit. Fact. Secondly, rates (ECB/BoE/Fed) will not rise as fast as is being touted by the people who tout.
  13. I'm a little at a loss as to what Mr. Issing suggests the Irish government does. I mean surely IRs are the only meaningful way to tackle this?
  14. Good compilation Green Bear. That comment by Bertie Ahern is one of the most shocking and disgraceful things I have EVER heard an Irish politician say, never mind a Taoiseach. He couldn't contain his glee as he said it, clearly displaying utter contempt for non property buyers. It was a downright ******ing disgusting remark.
  15. In the interests of balance, one of the bearish commentators quoted on the homepage of HPC, Ed Stansfield, is quoted in the article saying he had overestimated the extent of falls. His prediction is 20% falls in next few. But he admits his 7% fall forcast for this year looks wrong, and he has now adjusted his prediction to 2-3%. Has he been "gotten at" too? So there is some food for thought I'd have thought.
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