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Guest_FaFa!_*

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Everything posted by Guest_FaFa!_*

  1. We are about to find out who is really in charge.
  2. Yes but the people are all engaged in pumping oil and gas out the ground, much demand for which comes from Europe. No European demand no job.
  3. Sorry is Mr. It is all about to go to shit seriously arguing that China going down the toilet or a global recession will not impact oil and gas prices?
  4. I am not sure that China is playing a clever game. If China is tacitly saying that agreed territorial boundaries can be cast aside on the basis of ethnicity where does that leave Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia? Remember also the reason Mongolia is no longer part of China is due to Uncle Joe, a fact which still rankles with many Chinese. They have been caught on the hop by events and are trying not to piss either side off. This attempt at a neutral position will not work forever. If they want to be a real power it will involve taking sides and all that entails. Regarding Taiwan, an invasion is unlikely and unfeasible. In any case, it is hard to see what support Russia could meaningfully provide.
  5. Granted he looks like a genius next to that pisshead Yeltsin, but he's a thug who has used a natural resource bull market to enrich himself and his mates. It would be pretty damning if he hadn't managed to remain in power given the money flowing into Russia. Let us see how clever he is when the gas and oil prices drop. What he has done here is ensure Sevestapol remains his when no-one was suggesting it wasn't at the expense of his international standing. India and China may not have spoken out against him, but I'd struggle to construe it as whole hearted support.
  6. Russia is doomed http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/russia-is-doomed/ The article also points out the dropping population and Russia's increasingly uncompetititve weapons exports in the face of Chinese (and South Korean) competition. Putin has basically achieved a land grab with long term costs. I cannot see any upside long term at all.
  7. Respond how? Cut off the gas? That's cutting their nose off to spite their face. Their economy is totally one dimensional and they are reliant on the exports. I am curious as to why you rate the country so highly, it is utterly screwed long term.
  8. Abe's problem is that Japan consumes an insufficient amount and has excessive savings. He is attempting to deal with this by raising a consumption tax and lowering corporate taxes which will have the opposite effect. It appears he thinks this will be offset in the longer term through rising wages through a trickle down effect from rising corporate profits. He'd be better off simply lowering consumption taxes and income taxes. This has got to be one of worst threads on HPC by the way. There are many lessons to be learned from Japan but all that ever happens is IRRO posts a negative article followed by a one liner. It'd be good if there was at least a paragraph of analysis or viewpoint.
  9. They haven't devalued sterling with QE. Sterling hit bottom prior to the start of QE.
  10. I live in Japan and have not noticed any impact of the yens decline. I'll let you know if/when I feel the squeeze.
  11. You said almost the exact same thing in another thread. Other posters disagreed and politely pointed out factual errors in your posts. Here is your response Why are you posting here?
  12. We have been here before - not including bonuses in calculations is highly misleading as they can comprise several months of salary. I am not sure if salaries plus bonuses are going up however - I suspect not at the moment.
  13. The quote is from Jan 2013 http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/economic-intelligence/2012/01/26/federal-reserve-abandons-core-consumer-price-index Core CPI doesn't have energy or food - looks like they changed to one that does. It was comfortably above 2% before QE too You are totally ignoring QE's role in propping up the banks, but ok. Really? True. And for the record - you'll note the US almost never runs a surplus
  14. Basically I agree with what you have written but I'd argue the primary purpose of QE was to save the elites and keep the system intact. That has been broadly successful, and only now are they realizing they may have to throw more of a bone to the little people as they are not going to get the growth they need with QE alone as it only boosts one part of the money supply.
  15. NS&I? Isn't that state run? Adding to the public debt mountain are we? Hope you're proud of yourself.
  16. I lived in China and have Chinese friends. Mandarins a bit rusty these days though. They want everything their parents didn't have. I want everything my parents had. Minor problem - not getting the wages to make it happen. On the bright side they have things their parents never had - poisoned land, polluted rivers and air quality to rival Mordor so they are catching up in that respect. In order for our friends to get the level of living they aspire to there will need to be a major shift to a consumption based economy. Not much evidence of that happening as yet.
  17. That's great. Let me know when they get the wage rises to buy those things. Beijing house prices are, IIRC, something like 20 times salary. Ain't nothing going on but the rent in China and it looks like it maybe coming to a head
  18. To my mind a Chinese crash and commodity spike is unlikely as China IS commodity demand. That plus a strengthening USD, I'd be surprised
  19. I am as bearish on gold as you like but I am surprised there hasn't been a more significant bounce
  20. Yeah you've been saying that all the way down. I suspect I could come back in 2 years and you'll be saying the same thing.
  21. No I dont think so - it is an integral part of any decision making to make a reasonable grasp of the alternatives. Just saying XYZ is bad is meaningless if there was no alternative Smart money? You mean the savers? They would have been wiped out as their smart savings are what is being defaulted on.
  22. Ok I guess you don't. But I feel it is disingenuous to argue that QE is bad in a vacuum without consideration of the fall out from the likely alternatives.
  23. The problem is the US didn't redistribute so much either and I suspect that the reducing debt and recovery will be deemed by the Republicans to be die to their hack and slash. They are making it hard for the US military to operate which is not good for global trade and stability.
  24. Well exactly. If you need proof QE doesn't cause general inflation look at Japan - massive stimulus, printing the same as the US with a population one third the size, 25% drop in the yen and what have they got? 1% inflation. I live in Japan - haven't even noticed. Outgoings look about the same since I arrived over 2 years ago.
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