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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Guest_FaFa!_*

  1. Your savings are someone's liability. That is how it works. You cannot simultaneously argue that debt is bad and savings are good. Monetary savings are debt. If you want to reduce the debt in Japan, you need to reduce the savings. Or perhaps you can suggest an alternative?
  2. Ok How would you define a sustainable trajectory? In what way is the country not open to FDI and how would to assist in the situation? I agree partially, but the main thing is that the debt get spent down. Given that much of the debt is the savings of private sector and the household, were they to spend their savings this should reduce both the level of bonds and increase tax intake, reliving the situation on two fronts. There is no market risk of default, you know this. I agree, but I don't think they need eye watering stagflation
  3. If you say so, however from your comments on MMT I don't think you have done much reading on it.
  4. My point is that public debt can, to a point, be seen as a function of private savings. Therefore looking at the debt without referring to the system as a whole is pretty pointless. The Asian savings glut theory may not be agreed with by many on this forum but it is certainly something they should be aware of.You appear to imply you think my family are landlords, I don't mind confirming this is not the case. The rest of the selectively chosen comments on my personal position are not pertinent to the argument. Please play the ball not the man.
  5. Yes I am familiar as I used to think that way too. The truth is well hidden.A better analogy to my mind would to compare the national debt to savings at a bank as ultimately if the private sector wants to save in the aggregate they either need to place it abroad or in government bonds. Thus the large public debt in places such as Japan et al can be seen as excess private sector savings caused by excess profits and an unwillingness by the private sector to invest. One way of dealing with the excess would be for private sector to invest or to redistribute the money via wage rises. This would lead to an increased tax bill and lower the deficit. But they prefer to do anything but that, reasons are fairly obvious.
  6. For someone who has been on this site as long as you have, I find your ignorance pretty shocking. You don't appear to be aware of or understand the arguments on the other side of the spectrum let alone any meaningful ability to engage with them. Same goes for Mr. Daily Mail/Zero Hedge spam merchant IRRO
  7. Indeed.I also love the way that they talk of the national debt as if it is some sort of personal loan which needs repaying in its entirety. National debt will never be paid back and it need not be.
  8. I am not sure MMT is fully Keynesian and I would not describe either a zero interest policy as necessarily MMT or current policies pursued by the major economies as MMT. I'd be interested in reading anything by MMT proponents stating they believe zero interest rates should be a policy aim at all times or arguing that they support current policies. Here's Bill Mitchell on Japan for instance:http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=29506 For the avoidance of doubt the article is called "Japan returns to 1997 idiocy rules!" There has always been a tendency to throw around terminology on HPC without fully understanding the underlying ideas (TBH I have fallen into the trap at times) to the detriment of real understanding and debate.
  9. How far do you think it needs to fall? If you strip out the sales tax increase it is at 1%. I live here so I am afraid you cannot ******** me about the amount of pain involved When and by what process? The ideas behind Abenomics are publicly available and it is a stated aim to raise wages which they have not managed in real terms as yet. If the opposition has better ideas let them speak. Yes, agreeing to the tax which was not a part of his original plan when in opposition to get the agreement of the then PM to call an election was not a good move in retrospect. Another Asian Financial Crisis is a possibility. Certainly rebalancing will be tricky and the attempts to move Japan to an economy more based on consumption will not be easy. Nevertheless Japan, like every other country, will pursue what it considers the best way forward for it. Germany and China are not in a position to complain given their own antics. We shall see.
  10. They will as it is unlikely the main opposition party will be able to find sufficient candidates to stand in all the constituencies.Abe is changing a part of his platform and is going to the people. Perhaps you'd prefer the UK style where they break promises willy nilly and ignore the consequences? My bet is the effects have worked their way through and that the Japanese economy will be growing again soon. Whether they can hit the nominal 5% they need remains to be seen. I'd be surprised if the yen gets anywhere near 200 - it must be getting to the point of looking cheap. I am thinking of bringing my GBP over now it has hit my target of 180 to the pound.
  11. They'll have a pension as their income same as the UK. Govt pension plus their own arrangements. The old has all the wealth in Japan, much like the UK. It needs transferring to the young. How would you do it?
  12. I'd also be interested in the figures divided by age groups. However unlike you I would suspect that the reason for the decline is due to 20% of the population being over 65. This being the case it is natural the percentage of household income being saved is falling as pensioners will spend their income not save it. As the society has aged the percentage of income being saved has fallen as would be expected. Indeed Japanese imbalances should be seen as a function of the aging society. Abenomics appears to be aiming to move wealth from the old to the young (to some extent) but is seeing mixed results thus far.
  13. The UK is considerably larger than those countries and boasts globally famous universities, one of the worlds most effective military forces (permanent UNSC member) and has one of the worlds largest economies. Its cultural impact is also massive. It is sometimes hard to notice - when I am in Bangkok, the capital of a country with a similar population to the UK and see a massive Man U poster draped down the side of a skyscraper it is easy to think that is normal, but it is actually remarkable given our size. UK has problems but people still flock to this country.
  14. From the Japanese public? They want to see some of those wage rises. The opposition is a shambles in Japan - amongst the opposition, it is likely only the communists will be able to field candidates in every seat in the snap election.
  15. Or perhaps they don't want money from someone who thinks the homeless smell like shit amongst other hilarious gags? The man sounds like a grade a bellend.
  16. I recently had a debate with a fellow Brit concerning immigration who initially assumed I'd be in favour of it due to being married to Asian and having a background of doing voluntary work and low paid work in the so called "third sector". When I told him that I felt immigration policy of the UK was a disaster he seemed flabbergasted and mentioned the whole net contribution thing. My response was that this was neither here nor there. I observed that if we genuinely cared about the poorer countries of the world we should not suck out all of the talent in order to paper over the cracks in our education system. They can remit all the money they like but if they can't get a decent plumber in Poland or a good doctor in India cos they are all in the UK/the West all it is doing is circulating an increased amount of money amongst low quality goods and services and I couldn't see how that is doing them a tremendous favor in the longer term (though the immigrants individually presumably benefit otherwise they wouldn't come). This guy seemed surprised and said he had never heard it put like that before or an anti-immigration pov from the left. I said I don't see myself as left or right, and am not anti-immigration but concerns regarding it seemed entirely reasonable in my book and it needs properly controlling and managing.
  17. That's not universal though is it? I'd imagine it is a matter of management, extra woolly jumpers etc Either you mean it is the EU which would bring in sanctions cutting the gas, or poor old Russia is "forced" to cut the supply. If it is the latter cannot say that I have much sympathy with Putin, the handling of this situation has been hot headed to say the least.
  18. Gas isn't our only source of power so your maths doesn't add up. Yes, there'd be some pain but I suspect Russia would blink first. Cutting off your customers is not a good idea when you are export dependent.
  19. Seems unclear how much the UK imports but maximum is apparently 15%. East Europe much more vulnerable but is Putin willing to alienate those he wishes to dominate?http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn25949-as-sanctions-deepen-just-how-crucial-is-russian-gas.html#.VF3VKidhic0 Naturally a drop in supply would cause a spike but if Putin does that then the motive not to completely destroy his economy disappears. He's a man who could not get decent growth with oil at USD100 indicating he has never dealt with underlying problems - just rode a commodities boom. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out, a long slow squeeze I suspect.
  20. Ok, so what you are saying is that you are posting invariably negative things that you don't understand (otherwise you'd be able to explain why the above is a problem) for information. Is that correct?
  21. I love you too Why do you feel that 8% inflation is a problem? Are you saying you think hyperinflation in India and China is likely?
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