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Guest_FaFa!_*

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Posts posted by Guest_FaFa!_*

  1. Anyways, I was at work last week and there's a fella who owns 3 BTLs, I asked him what he thought of the budget and he replied he hadn't even looked. I went on to tell him about the changes to tax laws within BTL and he replied, don't care I don't declare anyway. He then came out with the usual spiv type rubbish you'd expect from a greedy self serving landlord.

    You may enjoy the link below

    https://online.hmrc.gov.uk/shortforms/form/TEH_IRF?dept-name=TEH&sub-dept-name=&location=39&origin=http://www.hmrc.gov.uk

    Welcome to HPC

  2. Opportunity cost , is a phrase left out of the Keynesian lexicon. The seen and unseen consequences of unilateral govt action distorting the economy , a corollery of a parable as described by bastiat in the Broken Window.

    Just because govt provides something , you cannot say private enterprise would or would not not have provided it. It exists already by fiat, the opportunity cost is unquantifiable so to make definitive statements about what might have been is folly. Keynesians enjoy folly as a justification.

    http://economics.about.com/od/output-income-prices/a/The-Broken-Window-Fallacy.htm

    Since moving to Japan I have become less impressed by these assertions of the Almighty Private Sector. I routinely visit SE Asian countries as part of my work and see the magic of the private sector in action when the govt has little power. The private sector does not, in my experience, automatically step in to solve problems. Take for example a city in SE Asia where septic tanks are poorly constructured/non-existent and are leaking raw sewage into the water table. At what point do we say the private sector is not providing and do something? Before or after everyone has cholera?
  3. public infrastructure is provided as a sop to voters to win elections, or as part of a command economy...not many of those last long.

    China is a good current example...terrible pollution, and while the stimulus of cheap production keeps the global firms there

    That's not really correct anymore, Chinese wages are not really competitive compared to SE Asia. What keeps production there (currently) is that their infrastructure is far superior to SE Asia where it is largely non existent. What you lose in wages you make up for in being able to ship goods in and out quickly and cheaply. At the moment that is.
  4. If they made any sense, the private sector would be doing them. So Keynes was claiming that government should be spending money on things that make no sense to keep people employed for the sake of employing them.

    In that case I presume you would argue that having effective solid waste management, clean water, waste water management or public transport in developing countries makes no sense as if it did the private sector would have supplied it already.

    Japan has been trying that for around thirty years. All they have to show for it is a lot more debt, and a lot more 'infrastructure' that no-one actually wanted

    How do you measure demand for public infrastructure?
  5. Define this "real economy" nirvana of which you speak.

    Spending wasn't high prior to the crash. 2.5% budget deficit? Compared to what today? 5.5%? So after 5 years Osborne has managed to run a budget deficit more than twice that prior to the crash and apparently that is the definition of "competence".

    What is this obsession with wilfully causing a massive GDP collapse? Who do you wish to "help" by doing so?

    How did the loss of output in 2008/9 "help" the economy? Or the debt/gdp ratio? or the lower paid? Or anyone in fact. It's a very puzzling argument frequently made but without any reference to anything apart from Zombie films or some other arbitrary nonsense. Very odd indeed.

    Why do you continue posting? You have been proven correct repeatedly over the past half decade and yet the same old gang pump out the same tired cliches. Genuinely curious.

    As someone who has read Keynes I don't recognize the characterisation of his thought on this thread. It is all a bit tiring to read let alone spend time trying to contribute.

  6. Couldn't agree more. My choice would be Alan Johnson as he appears 'normal' but might be a bit too old Labour for 'middle england' and their faux capitalism. Not unsurprisingly Johnson isn't interested (who can blame him?).

    My fear is they will pick Ummuna or worse Tristram Hunt.

    Indeed. The issue is Labour is now the party of Primrose Hill metrosexuals. Jarvis would look serious and as ex-military would be able to do the whole iron bar wrapped in cotton wool routine. He'd also be able to argue that he's actually had a real job making life or death decisions in high stress situations.
  7. I think the squeeze on family finances and fear of the SNP produced this result, a lot of people who have good jobs and good salaries are struggling to pay their bills.

    They can't afford to care about the NHS or benefits.

    Plus of course Milliband was very unconvincing

    Whilst I don't disagree with your points what caused this result is the fundamentally undemocratic system whereby parties receiving millions of votes get handfuls of MPs. The country can never have a real debate when vast numbers of people are effectively silenced. You have to be winning Thatcher/Blair style landslides to have any hope of describing yourself as speaking for the majority of the country and even those two maxed out at around 45% of the popular vote. Cameron's totals are risible by comparison.
  8. Hello Fafa.....

    Maybe you can comment on my post No 978. Any shop price and food price rises in Japan?

    Btw, there`s an interesting video on Money week with Tim Price who talks about the world economy and has good things to say about japan.

    No kyle Bass him.

    Basically I am willing to believe there have been rises if the official stats say so, but haven't felt the pinch or really noticed myself. Bills look about the same as they always did. I think train fares went up a bit, thats the only one I noticed. Saving about the same each month.

    Thanks for the video tip - will check it out.

  9. Kyle Bass bets on full-blown Japan crisis - FT headline

    Kyle Bass hopes he is wrong, and so may everyone else, as the danger predicted by the founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital is nothing less than a full blown financial crisis in the worlds third-largest economy, Japan.

    Here's a quote from the beginning of the thread, almost 2 years ago, when the usual suspects were promoting their usual doom and gloom. Waiting for Japan to collapse is like waiting for Godot.

    In answer to the assertions above, if the numbers say the prices are rising then I am willing to accept that is the truth, however I am feeling no squeeze on my living standards here and I haven't heard complaints from colleagues. I think the average middle class is doing ok.

    The problem is probably for people working in a 7-11 or equivalent for JPY850 an hour. That said I am seeing a lot of adverts for staff (thats how I know the rate) so wages may need to go up. Having said that, most 7-11 and the like are chronically overstaffed (a queue longer than 3 people is rare) so they can probably survive without them.

    I continue to believe that the transfer of wealth to the rich is on-going and sustainable over generational time frames.

  10. Hello Fafa...

    Of course, many people find out that they can pay a token amount of their mortgage only by chance (from the nice lady at the government office for example), many would prefer to borrow from parents or commit suicide.

    Thank god that people have an alternative these days,

    MY WIFE? She`s still spending her days at the NHS.

    Oh I see, your wife's friend got advice at the local government office. I thought you were saying she worked for the local government. Anyway good luck to her. Japan (and Asia in general) can be a harsh place if you slip through the gaps. I often wonder how much some of the libertarians on this forum would enjoy the experience. Presumably they think it wouldn't happen to them.

    Perhaps there was a misunderstanding, all I meant to say was I hope your wife enjoyed the holiday despite the miserable Japanese winter and lack of central heating. I hate the winters out here.

    Anyway, hope you are both doing well. Hope not too early to wish you both all the best for the New Year!

  11. For the first time since records were collected in 1955, Japan's population is drawing down its savings and the savings rate, calculated as savings divided by disposable income plus pension payments, was negative 1.3%.

    It's a dramatic change from when the Japanese saved nearly a quarter of their income (23.1%) when the savings rate peaked in 1975.

    more at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30603313

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/25/markets-japan-jgb-idUST9N0MW05I20141225

    The dropping savings rate is good news but will need to be matched by increasing real wages PDQ.
  12. My wife has just come back from Japan yesterday.

    She says that her friend is now unable to pay her mortgage and so is just paying a token amount of £5 a month. Apparently millions are in the same situation (she works for local government)

    It seems that the banks are more than happy with this situation, I imagine it`s all backed by the Japanese government.

    The future for the UK is already writ?

    Sorry to hear about your wife's friend's difficulty. Is her friend single? Assuming she is roughly your age I am surprised that working for the local government she cannot service the debt given the wages they offer and lifetime employment etc.

    Also given that Japan does not have a high NPL rate

    http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS

    I would be surprised if there are a large number of people in a similar situation but not surprised by the bank's leniency.

    Hope your wife enjoyed herself, it is the worst time of year to come.

  13. The UK national debt is roughly £1,470 billion, and increasing by about £44 bn per year - the annual budget deficit.

    However, building a house costs about £50k, and they sell for £200k.

    So if the government simply got into the business of house-building, it could build about ten million (total cost: £500 bn), and could sell them for about 2,000 bn, making enough money to pay off the entire national debt.

    And, as a bonus, an end to the housing crisis.

    Problem solved.

    No need to pay off the national debt. Deficits barely matter. Housing should be less than 200k average. Your 50k doesn't include land costs.

    Other than that, it's a winner

  14. I don't really understand Japanese politics, although I'm relatively envious of what they make of their lot.

    The second article was more about the link to: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/12/04/2059371/did-japan-actually-lose-any-decades/ putting the demographics in context.

    Another excellent article, cheers. There's only one party in Japan - TV just gave a poll showing most people think Abenomics will fail, yet they just voted for it.
  15. Thanks for that, both excellent articles especially the first.

    Results coming in now, Abe's coalition on track for 330 out 475 seats. Abe doesn't really need the coalition partner as he is on track for 295 seats.

  16. The above is also riddled with false, misleading and 'easy' premises. The liability side needs to get itself in order, or turn over its position to creditors. Savings are good for me... debt is bad for those who take on too much of it. Debtors pay interest to savers, or at least they used to. Who is arguing debt is bad. Excess debt is bad. Reform your position debtors, or turn over assets to creditors.

    The issue in Japan is that there is excessive public sector debt. Private sector debt is not much of an issue. Please describe therefore the process whereby the public sector hands over its assets to its debtors.
  17. This much I do know; asset holders snubbing offers of 3/4 of a million pound for their house they bought 20 years ago at a much lower price, and campaigning for savers to have their savings taken, seeking wage inflation, whilst looking for the workers they're trying to help as renting-monkeys (often time) .

    I have my savings, other people want me to spend them, whilst often time they treat value of their own homes at £750,000 house as value locked in, 'just what is it', 'pay what it is worth' - whilst worrying about debtors on the margin, where market values are set.

    I have only been in Japan 3 years so am bot fully up to speed but I have never heard a Japanese person talk like that. Property does not hold value in Japan like in the UK. People, when they buy, purchase land and do a self build. Any old housing tends to get levelled. I think the renting rate is around half to two thirds.

    If you could keep your comments relevant to the thread that would be helpful.

    The point I am trying to make is that in Japan the main debtor in the aggregate is the government. The public debt is basically private savings. People hold their savings in cash in the bank. Not property, not stocks. Cash. It is not going to be possible to reduce the government debt in Japan without reducing savings.

  18. I don't understand Japan - the economy is apparently in a mess but when you see footage of Japan it looks modern, clean and the people very well-dressed. They seem to have lots of money for gadgets and cars. They seemingly can afford high house prices.

    Am I missing something?

    GDP indicates the amount of goods and services being produced. If the economy isn't growing it simply means the amount being produced is the same as previous years. If you are producing a large amount of goods and services then you can flat line for years without lowering the standard of living.
  19. Solutions? How about creditors will prevail over debtors. All asset-classes of value, will be selectively repudiated by default - with fresh lending on lower asset values to new entrants/younger generations at lower prices, not obliterated by inflation/wage inflation/ forcing savers to spend on overvalued stuff... mainly to keep older VI smug and happy at the top.. older homeowners, older VI wealth and financial elites. Only fresh volumes of sustainable debt issuance, on assets prices right, in volume, can rebalance debt.

    Ok, which assets would you like defaulted on? How does defaulting help creditors? Before the default they have a yield and potential repayment, after default they have nothing

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