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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Guest_FaFa!_*

  1. You may enjoy the link belowhttps://online.hmrc.gov.uk/shortforms/form/TEH_IRF?dept-name=TEH&sub-dept-name=&location=39&origin=http://www.hmrc.gov.uk Welcome to HPC
  2. Since moving to Japan I have become less impressed by these assertions of the Almighty Private Sector. I routinely visit SE Asian countries as part of my work and see the magic of the private sector in action when the govt has little power. The private sector does not, in my experience, automatically step in to solve problems. Take for example a city in SE Asia where septic tanks are poorly constructured/non-existent and are leaking raw sewage into the water table. At what point do we say the private sector is not providing and do something? Before or after everyone has cholera?
  3. That's not really correct anymore, Chinese wages are not really competitive compared to SE Asia. What keeps production there (currently) is that their infrastructure is far superior to SE Asia where it is largely non existent. What you lose in wages you make up for in being able to ship goods in and out quickly and cheaply. At the moment that is.
  4. In that case I presume you would argue that having effective solid waste management, clean water, waste water management or public transport in developing countries makes no sense as if it did the private sector would have supplied it already. How do you measure demand for public infrastructure?
  5. Why do you continue posting? You have been proven correct repeatedly over the past half decade and yet the same old gang pump out the same tired cliches. Genuinely curious.As someone who has read Keynes I don't recognize the characterisation of his thought on this thread. It is all a bit tiring to read let alone spend time trying to contribute.
  6. Indeed. The issue is Labour is now the party of Primrose Hill metrosexuals. Jarvis would look serious and as ex-military would be able to do the whole iron bar wrapped in cotton wool routine. He'd also be able to argue that he's actually had a real job making life or death decisions in high stress situations.
  7. Whilst I don't disagree with your points what caused this result is the fundamentally undemocratic system whereby parties receiving millions of votes get handfuls of MPs. The country can never have a real debate when vast numbers of people are effectively silenced. You have to be winning Thatcher/Blair style landslides to have any hope of describing yourself as speaking for the majority of the country and even those two maxed out at around 45% of the popular vote. Cameron's totals are risible by comparison.
  8. Basically I am willing to believe there have been rises if the official stats say so, but haven't felt the pinch or really noticed myself. Bills look about the same as they always did. I think train fares went up a bit, thats the only one I noticed. Saving about the same each month.Thanks for the video tip - will check it out.
  9. Here's a quote from the beginning of the thread, almost 2 years ago, when the usual suspects were promoting their usual doom and gloom. Waiting for Japan to collapse is like waiting for Godot.In answer to the assertions above, if the numbers say the prices are rising then I am willing to accept that is the truth, however I am feeling no squeeze on my living standards here and I haven't heard complaints from colleagues. I think the average middle class is doing ok. The problem is probably for people working in a 7-11 or equivalent for JPY850 an hour. That said I am seeing a lot of adverts for staff (thats how I know the rate) so wages may need to go up. Having said that, most 7-11 and the like are chronically overstaffed (a queue longer than 3 people is rare) so they can probably survive without them. I continue to believe that the transfer of wealth to the rich is on-going and sustainable over generational time frames.
  10. Oh I see, your wife's friend got advice at the local government office. I thought you were saying she worked for the local government. Anyway good luck to her. Japan (and Asia in general) can be a harsh place if you slip through the gaps. I often wonder how much some of the libertarians on this forum would enjoy the experience. Presumably they think it wouldn't happen to them.Perhaps there was a misunderstanding, all I meant to say was I hope your wife enjoyed the holiday despite the miserable Japanese winter and lack of central heating. I hate the winters out here. Anyway, hope you are both doing well. Hope not too early to wish you both all the best for the New Year!
  11. Havent really thought it through but potentially Asian Financial Crisis focused mainly on China and SE Asia with knock on effects in Europe. US, Korea and Japan come through relatively unscathed.
  12. The dropping savings rate is good news but will need to be matched by increasing real wages PDQ.
  13. Sorry to hear about your wife's friend's difficulty. Is her friend single? Assuming she is roughly your age I am surprised that working for the local government she cannot service the debt given the wages they offer and lifetime employment etc. Also given that Japan does not have a high NPL rate http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FB.AST.NPER.ZS I would be surprised if there are a large number of people in a similar situation but not surprised by the bank's leniency. Hope your wife enjoyed herself, it is the worst time of year to come.
  14. No need to pay off the national debt. Deficits barely matter. Housing should be less than 200k average. Your 50k doesn't include land costs. Other than that, it's a winner
  15. Another excellent article, cheers. There's only one party in Japan - TV just gave a poll showing most people think Abenomics will fail, yet they just voted for it.
  16. Thanks for that, both excellent articles especially the first.Results coming in now, Abe's coalition on track for 330 out 475 seats. Abe doesn't really need the coalition partner as he is on track for 295 seats.
  17. Yes, in fact if they cannot get the other sectors to leverage accordingly they will have a recession. If Osbourne gets his way and can implement this following May then it will probably be a good point to exit the pound.
  18. Thanks for the Bloomberg quote, it is basically what I was trying to say
  19. The issue in Japan is that there is excessive public sector debt. Private sector debt is not much of an issue. Please describe therefore the process whereby the public sector hands over its assets to its debtors.
  20. Are you familiar with the three arrows of Abenomics and the aims?
  21. I have only been in Japan 3 years so am bot fully up to speed but I have never heard a Japanese person talk like that. Property does not hold value in Japan like in the UK. People, when they buy, purchase land and do a self build. Any old housing tends to get levelled. I think the renting rate is around half to two thirds.If you could keep your comments relevant to the thread that would be helpful. The point I am trying to make is that in Japan the main debtor in the aggregate is the government. The public debt is basically private savings. People hold their savings in cash in the bank. Not property, not stocks. Cash. It is not going to be possible to reduce the government debt in Japan without reducing savings.
  22. GDP indicates the amount of goods and services being produced. If the economy isn't growing it simply means the amount being produced is the same as previous years. If you are producing a large amount of goods and services then you can flat line for years without lowering the standard of living.
  23. Ok, which assets would you like defaulted on? How does defaulting help creditors? Before the default they have a yield and potential repayment, after default they have nothing
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