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tuckster

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About tuckster

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    HPC Newbie
  1. tuckster

    Whats Happened

    :-) There is a reason why you buy and hold with gold. I would not expect new highs in USD for another 4-6 weeks, but you never know when something will happen. And when you are in the UK, the pound price of gold is what you pay. Basing the top in gold on the dollar price can be expensive. In my experience, the dollar price leads and the pound gains lag. Then the pound gains continues whilst USD price consolidates. Of course - it would be just as easy to see the pound price lead and dollar price lag followed by dollar increases when pound price is consolidating. It all depends on your start point. If housing is a derivative based on interest rates, then gold is a derivative based on the stupidity of governments. Logic says to me that there is only one side of that trade at the moment. The other side is a bit too crowded by the governments of the world and all of the crack addicts selling the booty of their weekends work for 50% of its value to a man in a high st stand..........
  2. tuckster

    Gold Dropping Fast

    Nothing to do with the fact that it has been totally over sold and at the bottom of its trading range,......
  3. tuckster

    Gold Dropping Fast

    isnt it the third wednesday in every month when options expire. Typically an event which would see any possible 'manipulation' occur. and of course it is inbetween the morning and afternoon fix which is when the alleged manipulations happen (statistically alleged due to gold actually falling in price over the past 10 years if you look at the price moves from am fix to pm fix only)..........
  4. Exactly. Every email, Phone conversation not private....... Of course skype causes them some issues but not for much longer. IP Addresses are not exactly unknown either...... Not saying any more. The last time i noticed someone 'joining' my phone call and i commented to the person that i was on the phone to that we were no longer alone, i received an ear piercing noise on my mobile. I guess that will teach me to try and be clever...... My issue with it is not someone reading a mail or jumping onto a call, but rather the retention of my calls and mails...........
  5. tuckster

    My Pension Lost A Third Of Its Value In A Year

    Pensions are an emotional thing. In the current cycle, pensions are looking like really bad investments because of the stage of the cycle that we are in. Asset prices have deflated. This hits them. They will deflate more. This hits them again. Interest rates and therefore annuities could not be worse than now. Ouch. But in a few years time, people looking at pensions will feel quite differently. We dont have a crystal ball and cannot call market bottoms, but it is reasonable to assume that it will bottom in equities and property at some point in the next 6 years or so. And once it hits bottom, then there is a reasonable chance that the next peak or top will not be for 10 years or so. This is likely to see quite a few years with moderate returns and some years with some great returns. So i guess that in 15 years from now we will be looking at pensions and thinking that they were a pretty good idea. The balance of probabilities is also that after the great deflation we will experience is over, that the economy will start to grow a bit. people will start to build their wealth and the rising markets will create an amount of affluence that will start to raise the demand for non essential goods again. That means that interest rates are likely to be higher and so annuities will be returning decent amounts again...... This is the point with defined contributions pensions. They are not a bad investment. But they become one if the investment matures when markets are low and annuities bad. They are not a great investment, but they become one when they mature when the market is hot and annuities are great. So they are the same as any other investment. They are an investment and not a sure thing....... Sure things. Those Final Salary Schemes. Trends in private sector schemes are to freeze them. Benefits earned up to point x are retained by the employees. They have been earned. Future contributions will be to defined contribution pensions. This is fair since you have worked and earned the x% of your salary as a pension through y years of service. However you have not earned the future years accumulation of % of your salary and therefore if this is changed to defined contribution this becomes fair. This is how the government should treat civil service pensions. This may be an effective pay cut for those in civil service since they get less pension. But then - paycuts are all around us. Ask the people in Car Industry on reduced working. Ask BA staff who have to sacrifice 1 months pay spread over 6 months. Thats a pay cut. Most people in private sector have had pay freezes which are pay cuts. Thats my thoughts
  6. tuckster

    Anyone Else Worried About Their Pension?

    Normally this site is full of good posts. Better than i can post. So i just watch them and never post. But this is one thread that is important to an awful lot of people and yet there is little in the way of good advice being suggested. Pension planning is a really big issue and very important. To simply say that there is no point in having a pension is a pretty ignorant thing to say for the following reasons: 1) If we get old before we die we will not be able to rely on work for money in our old age. 2) We cannot rely on relatives to support us. 3) We cannot rely on the government to support us because the level of support the government gives will change for the worse in the coming years. So what is the right answer? Balance. I have never understood why someone with a work scheme would choose not to pay into it. Lets think this through. You pay in 1k. But it is before tax. So you pay in 780 or 600. Your company generally will match or will pay in at a higher multiple. Lets assume match for ease of example. So they put in 1k. You now have a pension pot of 2k that cost you between 780 or 600....... Now unless you are pretty amazing at investment returns, that is already a return of 200% (+/- depending on tax rate). A lot of company schemes will also allow you to decide the investment strategy. I have 3 work pensions (thanks to previous jobs). One is crap and is done by post. Two are good and are online. You can log in and switch where your money is invested. Yes - they are all funds run by crooks, but you decide which fund you pay into. So you can decide whether its emerging markets, us, uk, bonds, cash, japan etc. As to how much to pay in? Well i would seriously look to pay in the maximum that would attract a company contribution. What else is there? AVC's / Personal Pensions. I pay tax at 40% - therefore i pay more in because i am in profit immediately. What about Property? Well i have a house. I have a small mortgage but when i bought the house i decided to pay off mortgage asap. Will i sell it - only to move. It is an asset. Will i buy another house to rent. Not at todays level. They are 40% over priced. If 40%over priced - why not sell? Because i live in it and it is an asset that is part of a balanced basket of wealth. It may take 15 years to reduce 40% and it could be in nominal terms. Why 40%? Because where i live the annual rental yield on a house is still 5% of the houses value. ie house is 20 times yield. This has to fall to 12 or under. It is a matter of time. And as yields are more likely to fall than rise, then expect 40% to be conservative. So what else is there for a pension? Gold and Silver. Not in accounts or options but coins. But 1 or 2 when you can. Put them in a safe place and forget about them. They are not an investment for cashing in to spend. They are there in case you get old and cannot buy food. Gold and silver will buy you food. If all else fails this will always be the case. Isnt it a waste? Putting gold and silver in a safe place? No. People who say it is a waste are people who have not learnt what life is about. Once you have wife and kids all that matters is making sure that they always have what they need. I am not talking about buying trainers or crap - but more about making sure that if i was to die tomorrow and armagedden happened, then my kids would be able to eat. This is done by the gold and silver that you leave them. Now back to the pension part of it. Do not be a buy and hold person in shares. It will not work over the next 5 or 6 years. Put the money into equities. Once you have profit on it, remove it and put it into short term cash. But new money goes into equities. Once you have some profit in it - again add it to cash. You do not need to make big profits, but you need to make a profit. Do this and you will do well. If the market tanks - you have cash to pile in....... But save the buy and hold in equities until the long term trend is upwards rather than down.
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