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adarmo

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Everything posted by adarmo

  1. Wouldn't go that far but we all should have some self worth. My motive is really to discuss the economics and politics of the mess sms how to resolve it. What's yours?
  2. Agreed- those Bose noise cancelling headphones make a big difference too.
  3. Or an 11 minute train journey calling at Winnersh Winnersh triangle Earley And..... Reading True you might have to wait 5 minutes for the fast train (23 minutes to Paddington is my record). Paddington is no great shakes though because you then have to use the hell like cattle trolleys Londoners call 'the tube' Just get the slow train to Waterloo from Wokingham and be done
  4. Prudential are in the centre. Then there's Oracle, Microsoft, PepsiCo. Imho Reading is overpriced but under rated. I moved to Caversham about three year's ago and actually liked it much more than i thought i would. There's tonnes of accounting jobs, IT is big and plenty of start-ups about since they don't like the overheads of London. Heathrow is 30 minutes away which helps a lot.
  5. Not really. I'd take a doubling of my salary any day. Tell me, is wage inflation part of the BoE's remit? Interest rates would rise if the 2 year outlook for inflation was higher than 3% Dont care what happens to prices tbh but maybe i got bored of waiting for a crash that was never coming while my savings were eroded. Sorry for the late reply, we were at B&Q arguing over what colour to paint the dressing room. FYI they've a paint sale on ending tomorrow so now have a 25 litres of their premium paint lol.
  6. http://www.mortgagesolutions.co.uk/news/2017/06/01/house-prices-slide-downward-market-correction-continues/ So.... ratio goes from 3.0 to a peak of 6.5 under Labour. Again, as with so many of our problems they'd be easier to fix of they hadn't been created in the first place. What do you think the Tories should have done? Somehow unravelled the balance sheet problems of the state and the banks while simultaneously getting prices down to 3.0 times earnings?
  7. I'll take wages doubling if that's on offer. I'm surprised housing benefit is that far entrenched.
  8. Never said they didn't borrow more. I said it's the wrong metric. It's the metric Labour churn out which is odd because it's the consequence of the structural deficit that they left. All yourself why Labour was borrowing so much during the longest period of uninterrupted economic growth in the country's history.
  9. I don't disagree with anything you've written other than housing getting hammered. It might happen but would need a sudden shock, IRs suddenly going up by a few %, unemployment rising, an exodus of population (for all the bluster around Brexit the population is still increasing). By hammering what sort of % fall are you thinking?
  10. What about housing benefit under Labour? That's an expense and not a balance sheet account (unlike help to buy). I'm 35 this year so without prices going crazy I'd have been a first time buyer 15 years ago. I'm not removing blame from the Tories, they should have allowed prices to correct and I've made no secret of my surprise when they didn't. But prices getting up to this level happened under Labour and the utter hypocrisy of this momentum movement makes me more than a little annoyed.
  11. There's no harm in asking. But to be clear there's a difference between what i think will happen having been so disappointed for the last ten years, and what I've been hoping will happen for that amount of time. I would love to see prices become more affordable and I'd be over the moon if they never went up again even as someone who is about to buy his first house mainly because at some point I'd like to move and i don't want to have to spend even more than i already would at today's prices. I've hoped for prices halving for years and if the gfc couldn't do it i don't know what will.
  12. Read up on structural deficit. You blame the Tories for borrowing more, but actually they've reduced the deficit by more than any government in memory. Government budgets happen with a lagged effect, you couldn't go and strip out £100bn in 12 months could you? To put that number in context the NHS budget for 2017/18 is £124bn. Imagine if they had, what do you think the impact on the wider economy would have been? You can answer that question yourself, I manage to back up my points with figures. I'm not lazy though. So go on enlighten us all. I'm still at a loss as to what you think the total borrowed over the last seven years has to do with funding Tory ideology (or even what that ideology is), or why you think that the amount borrowed is the useful metric. Take it from an accountant it's the deficit, and direction of growth, that matters.
  13. I'd go with lawyer, chartered accountant, chartered surveyor etc. People with real 'old school' professions could expect to be earning a reasonable amount once they are a few years post qualified. I agree there might be some impact during a deep recession but I got my training contract in 2010 which was probably the hardest time in living memory to get a firm to commit to training you and paying for your exams for three years. Point is they were still hiring and there was still a lot of work. Audits are required, tax returns, closing the books, approving spend etc. If companies start going to the wall then insolvency picks up while other areas fall a bit quieter so there's some mitigation. Sales on the other hand would have been a blood bath I think. Certainly some estate agents in London might have been pulling in £40k or £50k in 2006 and 2007 and then found themselves on their basic or unemployed come 2008.
  14. I guess it depends on what people do to earn that money. If you are in a stable profession then more likely you stay up there. If you're a shoot-the-lights-out sales boy then your earnings will be far more volatile. I do think they do an awful lot of due diligence around this these days. I was surprised by the change I saw when getting my mortgage approved a couple of months ago. Personally I think that the multiples should be much lower and that would have a positive impact (bring prices down). Don't know if that will ever happen. At least we aren't in a position where they're dishing out self certs again. The number of people in my office who are only 10 years older than me all openly admit (and quite fondly at that) how they lied on their mortgage applications back in the day and now live in super expensive houses, or have paid off the mortgage in full and are looking at a second home with their endowment payout. Even if they keep pushing with MMR I think that it'll take years for the effects of the past to flush out.
  15. We were looking at the end of last year for a mortgage and were told we could borrow 5 times earnings if our joint income (excluding bonuses etc) was over £80k. This end of the market is rationed and I understand that the MMR fixes the ratio of >4.5x earnings at 15% of their loan book. It's not ideal I grant you, but it seems at least more sensible to have that end of earners borrowing larger sums than the other end. Of course if rates increase or we get a recession then that would make for some sleepless nights on their part.
  16. Agreed anything over 5% would be terrible. If a company was doing that it'd be curtains for the Board. Yet, there are some who bang on about the total amount borrowed and fail to grasp the concept of a structural deficit and eroded tax base.
  17. What is their ideology? I thought Tories were pro small government and small government spending? If that's the ideology you're talking about they've borrowed loads and loads of money to shrink the size of the state? Talk me through that. If not what is do you mean by 'their ideology'?
  18. This is interesting. By Jan 2007 around 15 to 25% of the £1trn of outstanding mortgages had been securitised. My understanding was that when things started going south the securitsation market seized up and this stopped banks being able to lend as much as they had been since they lost a huge chunk of their cash source. Everyone then got nervous about what was in the stuff they'd bought (you'd think they'd do this before investing) and the bottom fell out of the bond market. I remember being talked out of investing in the NewStar High Yield bond fund when it fell by 60%. If I had trusted my head and not the financial advisors in my office I'd have made £12k in a year! Anyway, I agree that the financial impact of things this side would have been OK but it is highly likely we'd have felt the fallout from a US going into a deep recession, but nothing as bad as we saw.
  19. If you think a reduction in the deficit of nearly 75% from 2010 to 217 is small then what do you consider to be successful? In 2010 the deficit was 9.9% of GDP, in 2016 it was 2.6%. Wrestling that back under control is what should be considered, not the area under that curve (borrowing, but you know that right?). Out of interest why are you so focused on the total amount borrowed? What do you think could have been done better? Do you think HTB (which set all this chain off) contributed to it?
  20. I agree with your sentiment here. The liar loans and 125% mortgages were only one side of the coin. It was the collatorisation of these mortgages into CDOs that enabled a constant source of funding to the banks. These were those risk free 10% yielding investments ? Really it was a catalogue of regulatory, ratings agency and investor behaviour.
  21. What's your put exactly? The deficit has fallen. Any deficit will add to the debt. A large deficit was inherited but has sharply been reduced. Do you understand yet? Are you a Labour supporter? Is maths tricky?
  22. I remember a friend's brother and his now wife being super smug about dropping 500k on an apartment in Hackney. At least they'll have something else to talk about at the next dinner party.
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