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House Price Crash Forum

adarmo

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Everything posted by adarmo

  1. Or is this the first time where unemployment wasn't caused by a falling housing market?
  2. Haha, exactly! Maybe you convert them to Tesla shares and give him those?
  3. I think the road to recovery won't be as long as most think and there's limited appetite for further lockdown. Travel industry is a mess for next couple of years though until the plague is under control in other places. Against that you've got the end of sdlt holiday which has poured petrol on the market last year. I think broadly unchanged this year.
  4. I felt like you for a long time. Many university friends bought from 2009 onwards. It caused me a lot of angst tbh. But, i kept working, got professional qualifications and kept saving. 2016 the referendum vote went Leave and took the wind out of the sales of the property market. I bought a little over a year later with a 15% deposit. Admittedly the house needed a lot of work (still does tbh) but it was in a market town in the south east, detached and with an ooen fire, huge garden, parking etc. For me it ticked the boxes. I do believe the sdlt holiday ending will go in your favour. As an FTB you are sdlt free anyway so you're loading nothing by holding back a month or two (hopefully you're still able to save a bit more during this time). I don't believe interest rates are going to increase by any meaningful amount any time soon. BoE has said it will allow an overshoot of inflation to allow a catch up for the below inflation period we've had. We could even see negative base rates this year. Don't panic, keep saving and wait for that little dip when people aren't buying because of [insert issue]. As for what to buy it should be something you're happy with but prioritise the location whatever you do. Personally I'd avoid new build like a Covid ward and go for something 1950s to 1980s ideally in a non estate location. These are not getting built anymore and tend to be better located and with bigger plots than the Xerox housing puked up all over these modern estates (not to mention you won't have a social housing element close by). Which area are you looking in?
  5. Over what period are you looking? The dollar had been weakening of late. Gbp is up 20% from its 2020 low.
  6. You do come up with great one liners that confirm to yourself you've won an argument on a technicality. Have house prices risen in Scotland without everyone in England moving there?
  7. Lol. Ok then, so if everyone from England moves to Scotland prices won't move because there's an unconstrained land supply? It'll take a long time to build 20 million houses, in the meantime though....
  8. Well it'll cause prices to jump so.... in that sense...
  9. Yep. Think Labour in the late 90s. Give BoE independence to manage inflation but not how to measure inflation. Switching from RPI to CPI removed housing costs so the huge increase in prices remained outside of the BoE's scope.
  10. All good points, but China can be bigger than the USA with only a third USA GDP per capita. China has tricks up its sleeve too, giving a welfare cushion would stimulate domestic demand and reduce the savings ratio boosting consumption. You're right though, it's a well trodden path from farming to industrialisation to post industrialisation and easy to emulate but growth will slow as they converge.
  11. Russia, invading and occupying several territories without physical opposition. Also has arguably the strongest army in the world. China will become the biggest economy within a year or two. Even if the UK joined the USA China would overtake that in about 4 or 5 years. India is a mess because it's an enormous democracy. This is China's strength. Totalitarianism gets stuff done and quickly.
  12. 2500 a year? That's exceedingly good. I've had quotes from outsourcing firms four ten times that, in fact the price is so high that we ended up hiring locally globally rarer than central in India.
  13. Why do you need to when you can demonstrate that broader inflation is down? If 'something must be done' what about financial support to those 'hardworking familes' (and everyone else)? More money in other words.
  14. Why would you need to raise interest rates when the new measure of inflation is negative?
  15. Simple, you adjust the measure of inflation to include those asset prices. Back to RPI in other words.
  16. Good friend of mine is very early thirties. Owns a lovely 4 bed semi in a really nice part of the South East. He's done really well for himself (he and his wife both chartered accountants and have two kids). They're mortgage free in a couple of years. They keep looking at plots for their forever home but i think the closer they get to clearing their mortgage the less compelling it is to move. Another Friend lives in a mid terrace on the edge of Basingstoke and is finally trading up to a large detached house in Farnham.... quite a leap. I think for almost everyone a 3 bed semi is ample and for almost everyone in that position the increase in expense of buying a larger detached place is a big consideration. I often think about going the other way (selling a detached in Berkshire and moving either further west or into something smaller).
  17. More importantly, when to sell them
  18. Worth a look, watch they don't rob your bank deposits again though. They've got form.
  19. Pretty sure shelter ranks high on the hierarchy of needs? The knock on economic impacts of moving house are pretty large, new furniture, decorating, trades people employed etc. To protect the nhs you need to protect tax revenue to an extent and that requires an economy. I also suspect that people need to move now more than ever. People in abusive relationships, people in horrible relationships dragging down their mental health. Etc etc.
  20. Those shares have intrinsic value though. They can be valued using a variety of methods. Bitcoin is a beautiful pyramid scheme.
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