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mattyfc

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Everything posted by mattyfc

  1. Construction orders in Q4 were revised up by 26%, makes me think these figures may not be really reliable. Surely Q1 should have been bumper yet output fell 4%, apparently? The ONS clearly don’t have a clue what they are doing with construction figures. Just yesterday the construction PMI showed the industry growing reasonably. RICS and the CPA have both questioned the output figures and think they are nonsense. They ONS construction output figures are clearly garbage. No surprise those desperate to keep IR down and HPI up are delighted with the data being put out.
  2. It makes no sense to buy a house now. Most seem to have realised buying a house is no longer a cash machine. The price will fall; you have maintenance, no flexibility and become a slave to the bank. Rates can only go up and push prices down further. Spending your 30k savings and taking on massive debt is madness for most. Mortgage approvals are collapsing, the only way to get transactions going is for prices to fall to a more reasonable multiple of income. There has to be some incentive for FTB to bother taking on the massive disadvantage that is home ownership. The VI propaganda from the Express etc will not be enough anymore.
  3. Yawn, more self justifying rhetoric from the BOE. IR will not rise because of the effect on house prices. It is very simple, the BOE will not admit this as they are meant to fight inflation not support house prices. Instead we end up with BS like this from Dale which is nothing but propaganda to support IR decisions made over the last year. They are taking a massive risk as the same insane pre crisis behaviour begins to take hold, massive mortgages are taken out without anyone considering the risk of IR rising in the future. The whole thing becomes self fulfilling as more debt piles up, it becomes even harder to ever raise IR.
  4. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8540405/UK-consumers-confidence-jumps-in-sunny-May.html Interest rate rise in August here we come?
  5. 0.3%. Not sure why anyone is surprised. Transaction volumes are collapsing, vendors refuse to lower prices. Until IR start rising y/y falls will be glacial.
  6. This article is ludicrously out of date. It has been obvious since 2008 that the UK economic model was completely stuffed. HPI, Consumption, Debt and public spending made the crisis inevitable. Pretty clear things have to change and this will involve some economic pain. Other solutions please? What is remarkable is how well the UK has been doing considering the massive problems faced.
  7. Who is going to buy the Properties then? The headline is oxymoronic; if a whole generation is priced out prices will fall until they are priced in. This is happening already mortgage approvals are plummeting because prices are too high. Vendors will crack eventually and prices will fall. Just give market forces some time to work, IR moving up would also help speed things up.
  8. Very unpredictable so I would not bother to try to guess if I were you. Take the current rate and be happy with it. Take a look at the movements from the last year or two it is a rollercoaster. FX is basically a speculative crapshoot no accurate way of predicting what will happen. If you can predict, good luck go and make some serious cash.
  9. Will be interesting to see how the population takes the announcement of new cuts if and when it happens. With the protests could be pretty ugly. Also how the population takes this seemingly much harder line you are seeing from the Banks. How much pressure will the mortgage debt for life law come under? Can’t see a good conclusion to the Spanish story. May take months or years, unless the crisis is managed to a degree that seems to have escaped politicians so far thing could get messy.
  10. http://www.forexpros.com/news/economic-indicators/britain%27s-cbi-realized-sales-fall-less-than-expected-215656 Retail sales are being supported by 0.5% IR. Disposable income is not being affected by inflation because of this. Pushing house prices down when IR rise to keep housing costs the same % of income is the key to a sustained recovery.
  11. What cuts? Did anyone even read the budget? The m/m borrowing figures are crazy volatile and are not really useful alone. Last year’s figures were revised to show total borrowing of £139bn which was a fair bit better than budgeted. Overall slightly worse picture than expected.
  12. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/public-borrowing-figure-blow-for-government-2288307.html ONS release: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/psf0511.pdf The figure for last year / month was revised down £2bn~.
  13. If the IMF does turn up what are they going to do? More austerity is never going to fly; it is politically unacceptable, deflationary policies will not solve anything only cause more demonstrations, riots and misery. Government overthrow and forced default are the eventual outcome. It is just a matter of time if it takes 1 month or 5 years. A positive solution that involves putting the people back to work and offering hope is the only way out of such a crisis. The IMF, EU and the Eurozone etc will have to come up with such a solution or face destruction. We have been here before, when an economic crisis leads to mass unemployment and misery people look for an alternative that gives them hope. In the 1920’s & 30’s it was Hitler, Mussolini, Lenin etc. I hope the authorities can act before such regimes are able to take control of troubled states and history repeats itself.
  14. The potential hidden debt is the small end of the problems in Spain. The national accounts, housing market and unemployment are what you really want to worry about. With the Q1 GDP breakdown out some serious questions will start to emerge. The data simply does not fit and there is clearly a serious problem lurking. The housing market / banking system is in real trouble. A real house price crash is possible if interest rates keep rising, prices could easily fall off 50-80% (If they haven't already). Rising interest rates and 21% unemployment is not where you want to be after a giant housing bubble. http://www.ftadviser.com/FTAdviser/Regulation/News/article/20110518/f111632c-8155-11e0-8195-00144f2af8e8/Spains-cracks-are-starting-to-show-warns-thinktank.jsp Unemployment and potential issues with political stability will start come a real concern if the ranks of youth unemployed continue to rise. Jobless claims are sitting 150-200k above last year and there seems to be very little signs of improvement. If more huge cuts are announced things could get ugly. The whole pack of cards could collapse unless the Spanish government and the EU are very careful and start offering these people some real hope, jobs and a way out of this nightmare.
  15. You can see the full year SA figures in the graph in the second link which I have put below. The pattern so far is almost identical to 2010 except with a start that is 150k higher. No doubt the claims figures will come down in the summer but the 150K + Gap looks like being maintained so far. http://www.rankia.com/blog/upload/images/blogs/tasa-paro/paro2011.png
  16. You mean the government propaganda put out. The April jobless claims figure was heavily affected by the timing of Easter this year. Luckily the Spanish government are kind enough to seasonally adjust the figures. Which then show a rise of 7110. https://www.redtrabaja.es/es/portaltrabaja/resources/contenidos/estadisticas/datos_avance/datos/datos_2011/AV_SISPE_1104.pdf http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.rankia.com%2Fforos%2Feconomia-politica%2Ftemas%2F753272-abril-2011-paro-baja-64-309-personas&act=url
  17. http://www.ftadviser.com/FTAdviser/Regulation/News/article/20110518/f111632c-8155-11e0-8195-00144f2af8e8/Spains-cracks-are-starting-to-show-warns-thinktank.jsp Household spending unchanged in Q1, despite record falls in retail sales and 250k extra unemployed? Really? 1.4% Rise in government spending whilst reducing the deficit from 11% to 6%? One of these has to be wrong. Exports to the rescue? http://www.mt5.com/de/forex_news/quickview/1144588 The trade deficit actually got worse y/y by 3.3% and q/q there was a miniscule improvement. Assuming you actually believe the trade figures released. As long as the oil price stays high can’t see this improving much. The GDP breakdown really makes no sense at all and does not fit with other data released. I will be interested to see how long this charade can be kept going before the inevitable plunge in to the abyss?
  18. Had not looked up Pets.com before: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pets.com This has to be one of the worst business plans in history. So ridiculous, what kind of mega bubble mentality made people think this business could ever work?
  19. Yes we clearly have, this is madness. Markets are apparently very stupid and have very short memories. After the last few years though, this news should surprise no one.
  20. So embarrassing, pretty much sums up most journalism in this country. Zoe Williams should be sacked on the spot. When did journalism become so intellectually bankrupt? Has anyone bothered to actually read the budget? Our deficit reduction program relies mainly on growth, there is very little actual cutting of expenditure. It is in fact rising about £40bn nominal over the parliament.
  21. http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-05/uk-cbi-industrial-order-expectations-improve-in-may.aspx?storyid=76653 Honestly not sure why this would suprise anyone, prehaps the royal wedding is responsible? Interest rate rise in August please..
  22. I would like to point out that all the shops were empty on the wedding day and half the country was on holiday during the bank holiday / royal wedding period. How does this boost retail sales exactly? There is a clear media narrative that UK data is poor and as a result IR should not rise. This is nothing but VI propaganda to support the housing market. If you look at the employment data, 416k extra jobs have been created y/y. The March 3m/3m were monster with 170k jobs created, in April the numbers employed increased by a further 10k. The claimant count figures blew out due to a change is who is counted in them (single parents). Retail sales rose 0.3% in March despite the consensus being -0.5% and have now risen 1.1% in April. Results from Next, M&S, Sainsbury’s, John Lewis etc all support the view that consumer spending is subdued but is growing. Negative data is confined to our “GDP” figures. These have clearly been distorted by the construction numbers and the mining and quarrying part of Industrial production. The released figures are clearly nonsense. Every piece of data released is spun in a negative way (deliberately?) to give the BOE ammunition to hold rates. The only possible motivation for this is to prevent further declines in house prices becoming entrenched. Halifax , Natiowide and the land registry are trending down and an IR increase or two will give them the push needed for sustained falls.
  23. http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=256 With the solid employment numbers yesterday & this the BOE will start running of excuses to hold rates soon.
  24. I would have thought 90%+ LTV mortgages were self disqualifying. The mere fact the a person applied for one should make them fail the credit scoring requirements.
  25. Not much new here. Printy Printy is clearly the least painful and by far the easiest solution. Without Germany in the EZ I am pretty sure this would have been done already. After the Weimar experience Germany is not keen to wheel out the printing presses, not surprisingly. Someone is going to have to pay the debt, Greece does not have the economic capacity to pay it, which leaves other EZ tax payers or the printing press. Lending more money is obviously storing more problems up for later. The EZ have plenty of problems but absolutely no solutions at present.
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