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House Price Crash Forum

Boon

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Everything posted by Boon

  1. A combination of both? Really hard to tell. Area could have gone to shit, next door could be a big construction site, COVID, decor is outdated, etc etc. Another anecdotal evidence. I was renting in the Canary Wharf area about 2016 to 2017. My rent was £1800pcm for a one bedroom flat in quite a nice building. I remember checking when I left, and similar flats (they're all the same layout and size throughout the building) had gone up to £2000pcm. I checked in May 2020, when COVID hit, they were down to £1600pcm. Then in August 2020, some were asking for only £1400pcm. Now, in October 2020, the asking is back to around £1700pcm. So looks like COVID did squeeze the rents downwards, but they're now creeping back up. I'm surprised, as it was a 45sqm one bedroom, not really suited for a couple to both WFH.
  2. This forum is so dead! I used to remember, back in 2009 when I was looking to buy my first property, that this forum was a heaving hive of activity. Anyways, as a long time contributor to this forum, and also because this forum gave me so much when I was a first time buyer, I've decided to start giving back and helping other first time buyers. Do check out my website - First Time Buyer Help - and if there are any topics that I haven't covered yet, drop me a message as I'm always on the lookout for more guides to add!
  3. And don't forget Fernlea Road! Soon though there might be a bit of a glut. I hear 91 new apartments on Boundaries Road? That's going to take some time to shift, even in this buoyant market.
  4. Weir Road is an anomaly in Balham. Most house buyers come to Balham to buy a home in a residential, quiet area. Weir is industrial. Certainly if I had kids I would think twice before buying on Weir vs other streets. And if I was a young professional with out kids, its slightly far from the station to get to work. So maybe that's why prices there are quite lower than other roads.
  5. Maybe it was sold as a 1 bedroom in the past, and the owner has now converted it into two bedrooms? Kitchen and bathroom look like they can be quite new, suggesting the works. To be honest it's barely a 1.5 bedroom. I'd struggle to think how it might be worth more than £290k. Surprised you're even considering going to view it given the high asking price.
  6. The area does seem to have gotten more popular... which doesn't help, especially since London prices as a whole has also gone up over past 2 years. May I suggest Streatham Hill?
  7. What about this one on Emmanuel road, 2 bedroom maisonette, leasehold, ground floor. Asking for £550k!!! Just put on by Jacksons. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-41374325.html
  8. Definitely not an early 30s couple. Average age of first house-buyer these days = 35-40. Average age of first baby, around the same too. Especially when looking at professional, urban couples both in full time employment. And a couple with only one kid doesn't need 3 bedrooms. But one with two kids do. And they really only need the 3 bedrooms once the kids are about 3-4 years old, so you're really looking at the couple in their early 40s. £150k joint salary at 4.5x will mean mortgage of £675k, and with a 20% deposit, that's a 3-bedroom flat/house price of £845k. Welcome to the new normal in London.
  9. Well, it's I the nightingale triangle, but I'm sure the estate agents have been telling you that already! I would presume that street would be popular with families, although a small 2 bed ex-council flat is probably more suitable for sharers. Is the flat leasehold or freehold? If leasehold, you might face long delays in getting council to approve the conversion if they are the freeholder.
  10. Indeed. Definitely no HPC in Balham. If anything, it looks like its more than 10% higher than this time last year!
  11. No 2 bed maisonettes have sold for 500k, but a large circa 90sqm 2 bed well renovated should fetch £400k-ish. Look at 2 bed on sale atm just round the corner on Tenham. Add a loft conversion and share of freehold and you get probably 450-480, and if lucky 500k?
  12. £630k for that is ridiculous. A good 15-20 minute walk from Balham station, and the road itself isn't the most pretty. Not particularly close to any primary school so will struggle to get a spot in the good ones. First floor two-beds, which is what this is minus the loft conversion, goes for approx £400k in the immediate area. So add the extra loft conversion, some nice interiors (have to admit wooden floor is nice), and the share of freehold and it really shouldn't be selling for more than £500k tops. I would bet that the true value is closer to £480k. Lets revisit this property in a few months time, which I'm sure will still be on the market
  13. Unbelievable - £600k? For that? And both bedrooms are basement? My My. Aaron: Thanks for the compliment - I haven't had time to update with day 2 (when the structural engineer came!) and day 3 (dealing with neighbours for party wall notices), but I'll be getting those posts up this weekend as I've just been swamped this week so far.
  14. True True... barely a day passes without some new statistic that central London prices are "booming", and that 9 out of 10 buyers are foreign. Obviously someone overseas buying a property in London for their "London pad" will mean that whichever Londoner was staying there before now has to find new housing (whether renting or buying). So apart from rich overseas buyers making central London and parts of SW unaffordable to working Londoners, there's also a reduction in stock available further increasing demand in "fringe" nice areas in zones 2-3. Like Clapham. Overspilling into Balham. The solution? Better transport links to areas further out from London, to make them more attractive to commuters. Or building new housing. But while this squeeze happens, rents and prices are going to be supported, however perverse it may be.
  15. I saw all those properties going from SSTC to Available too on my Property Bee. But on closer inspection, all the properties that did go from SSTC to Available are from Andrews. Because they all flipped status at the same time and from the same EA, I think its more of a case of some fat finger somewhere in the office. Often the Rightmove listings are integrated into the backend of the EA's systems, and if someone makes a mistake there it propagates to the RightMove listings as well. In terms of rent - I think its just unbelievable how much rents in London have gone up over the past 2 years. I'm paying £270pw for my current place, signed two years ago. if I were to move to a similar flat in the same block, I'm looking at like £310pw. But the flats are still renting. So you can't blame the landlords for asking for more if there's so much demand. I blame the government for so much red tape that its so hard to get new residential buildings off the ground to alleviate the shortage of housing stock. More stock, will mean cheaper prices and cheaper rent. Simple.
  16. I suspect that if Streatham High Street becomes more vibrant, it will make a good case for the Telford area, as currently its really stretching it a bit to consider it close to Balham High Street. Certainly its going that way - with planning granted to convert the old theatre/casino(?) on the Streatham High Street into smart new apartments and shops below. The Criffel Avenue one at £430k on Andrews.... layout seems a bit strange to me with the ktichen/diner in the middle of the house in like a "hallway". But I can see why its at that price as they've managed to get the layout to fit 3 bedrooms. Maisonettes on the nearby Tenham Avenue, around 90sqm as well, but only able to accomodate 2 bedrooms and selling for approx £380k already. What do you think the Criffel Avenue one will sell for?
  17. I don't think Aaron meant that.... the way I read in his comments was that the prices in that area are not that much cheaper than the Balham "proper" area - but as Balham prices remains high, naturally people will start to look for cheaper options in the surrounding areas and that will keep the prices buoyant. The Land Registry might show a fall of 0.5% in one month, but it seems like its going up and going down by small amounts every month and treading water at the moment. I don't see a sustained rise, and I don't see a sustained fall in London prices over the last few months. Of course Balham isn't superprime. But if you asked me to choose a grade between A to E, with A being superprime and E being the absolute dumps (Canning Town?), then I might choose somewhere between B and C, like B-. Balham's a better than average area, but perhaps not a B or B+ and definitely not A.
  18. I read in the Evening Standard yesterday that ING Direct are now upping their maximum loan to salary to 4.5x from 4x
  19. The problem is that prices won't crash unless buying demand AND rental demand are both low. The reason goes back to the free markets theory - if rents are rising because of lack of supply, there will come a point when the rental yields of the property approaches high enough that investors will start buying those properties and converting them into rentals. So unless supply in the rental market eases up and rents start to fall as well, it will keep supporting property prices at some level. Rents in London have gone up about 10% over the past year or so, and judging by the lack of rentals on the market and increase in letting agents around, it seems like rents might keep increasing - thereby making property a more attractive proposition to BTL investors.
  20. There's not alot going for the Woolwich Arsenal area - end of the DLR, and apart from several new-build developments, not a very nice area surrounding. On the other hand its cheap. £180k for a 2 bedroom new-build good-standard apartment? You won't be able to find it anywhere else in the UK. If you don't mind the long journey into central London, and if you work like in Canary Wharf or somewhere along the DLR, then for the money you're paying you won't get a bigger, newer property in London. On the other hand, selling it later might prove difficult. How much demand is there for apartments in Woolwich Arsenal? And with so many apartments there - there's alot of choice for buyers. You might also want to explore options - I suspect that quite a number of apartments in the area are likely to come up to auction at some point, and you might be able to get more of a bargain than through an EA.
  21. Central London probably can't even be considered British anymore, seeing how the market is dominated by bankers and the global rich. Its more like a super-rich tourist Disneyland. Other parts of London - I can see dropping. But rental demand is currently quite high in London. Rents have increased over the last two years (e.g. I'm paying £270pw since August 2009 and similar apartments in my building are now going for £310pw). Fundamentally, there's still a huge shortage of housing in London - due to a combination of zombie housebuilders who can't raise money to build, lack of land, NIMBYism, and long-winded planning process. Rents in London are now reaching 5-6% yield on average (up from about 3-4% in the boom), and if they rise any further into the 7-8% region, many professional BTL investors will be tempted to get into the market. I don't see there being a big risk of house prices in London declinging 15%+. But I don't see it rising either - nothing to stoke more demand. Probably will stagnate for the next 5-10 years is my view, which will be a loss once you take inflation into account.
  22. Yes, I'm waiting for that affect too. All the areas I have been looking at to purchase has rents above the LHA cap - so naturally one expects that as those rental demand dries up, rents drop, and property values drop too. Could be quite a slow process though unfortunately.... and BTL homes are usually Grade B (as renters are less fussy than homeowners). Fundamentally, at least in London, there is just isn't enough housing overall, so there's always going to be huge demand, whether home owning or renting - which is keep prices up high. Its the classic supply and demand. Even if mortgages are scarce, professional investors will swoop in to BTL, as yields will be high due to lack of homes. The government really just needs to get over NIMBYISM and build many more new homes.
  23. It is very odd that one segment of the market (Grade A) is extremely robust, while another segment (Grade is just languishing. One reason I can see is that "aspirational" homeowners, those with little deposit who in the past managed to get 10% LTV to just about afford a Grade B property are now shut out of the market. Whereas more affluent aspiring homeowning, those with Double Income No Kids, or £100k+ combined salaries, and substantial deposits from relatives/inheritance/etc are picky and therefore only considering Grade A properties, and therefore there's a feeding frenzy as they bid against one another. Current Grade A homeowners see less pressure to sell as well. More likely to be private sector employed, bigger deposits (hence easier to get a cheap remortgage deal), and because Grade A properties are generally bigger, able to squeeze the family in it for a bit longer before having to sell to move to a bigger place. Hence the shortage in supply.
  24. I agree that lots of stock are piling up on EA's books, many of them overpriced. But those tend to be the B grade stock - with a major flaw. Like lower-ground, or extremely tiny bedrooms, or some other problem. The A grade stock, usually a good road and no major flaws, are flying off the EA's windows at ever record-high prices.
  25. Unfortunately it looks like anything in the price range of £350k - £700k (and more?) is in hot demand at the moment, regardless of where in London. A combination of the existing middle-class home owners having cheap mortgages and jobs, and other middle-class professionals who have saved up over the past 3 years wading in to secure cheap fixed rates. But if you look at areas such as East London, especially around the Excel area, prices are still very low for new-build apartments. The area is crap, only convenient for Canary Wharf, and too many identical apartments means lots of supply available. But that's only if you find them attractive - and they're not to the majority of people in London. Even bad schools are now in demand. A huge shortage in primary school places this and last year means most schools are oversubscribed. You should try to find a property this summer that is just outside the extremely tight catchment area of a good school for this year. And a few years later, when this squeeze on places relaxes, your property should then be hopefully in the enlarged catchment area, allowing you to make a bit of profit.
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