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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by CokeSnortingTory

  1. Gold was an excellent investment in the last 300 years of the Roman Empire, when the various Emperors kept the wheels on the cart by progressively reducing the silver content of the denarii. Of course in those days there wasn't a paper market in gold futures, so you can't extrapolate then to now.
  2. The only thing that you can truly say is that when all the dust has settled it will be completely obvious that what happened was always going to happen and that you should have been in stocks/metals/currencies/property etc. Just as it was completely obvious that all along that Inter Milan were going to win the Champions League etc.
  3. The herd spot some tasty bracken leaves at the top of the hill. They trot up the hill towards them. The herd hear the cracking noise of a twig being broken. The herd panic and rush back down to the bottom of the hill.
  4. Well, I'm not sure that stockmarkets can crash like the good old days, due to the various levels of intervention that there are nowadays. And when they do actually crash, it seems to be provoked by HFT algorithms going awol, rather than fundamentals or even rumour.
  5. Well I only skim-read your original post as it struck me as a bit boring and verbiage-heavy.
  6. I have this kind of attitude to horses that are trained in France, tbh.
  7. What I find revealing is that all the market commentators who aren't British (Steve Keen, Mish etc.) think that UK house prices are in a bubble that is long overdue a burst.
  8. Putting my Gurdjieff hat on here, a lot of the replies on this thread illustrate my basic problem with gold, in that a lot of people emotionally identify themselves with it. It's almost quasi-religious - come the Day Of Revelation (fiat currencies collapsing) only the chosen ones (goldbugs) will inherit the Earth.
  9. No it won't, no matter how much the elites would like it this way. Expect a phase change. Little countries, all hating each other. Just like God intended.
  10. Royal Mail has been in state ownership since 1516 - it wasn't some private industry that Nye Bevin chose to nationalise in a fit of socialistic fervour in the 1950's. For 500 years, Kings and Governments have thought it better to be in state hands. Why does Vince Cable think better now? Any privatisation is based on a series of short-term assumptions that I don't think will necessarily play out over the longer term - that neighbouring European nations will always be friendly, that electronic communications will continue to spread, that private companies will always be able to raise appropriate capital etc. The first time we are threatened by a foreign power, it will be nationalised. Don't assume that time will be too far away.
  11. It's a long answer really, but I think globalisation is essentially an artificial state that needs constant credit-fuelled growth, because all the nations involved in the process have to keep the majority of their populations happily employed (or on a decent level of welfare if they aren't). The issues therefore are firstly production capacity and available resources. We have an almost grotesque level of productive overcapacity around the globe, and increasingly limited resources. And no more credit to pull in future demand. Triggers will be trade demand dropping, diminishing oil resources, resource-protectionism (i.e China re: precious metals), debt default, existing ethnic tensions (I guarantee the Serbs will go back into Kosovo, for example), breakdown of civil order in industrial nations. Those are just the known unknowns, of course.
  12. It's the cart driving the horse though, surely? i.e. it's only the belief that CHF is a safe haven that makes it a potential safe haven. btw, I underestimated the level of exposure: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/11/greece-debt-france-switzerland Also huge exposure to accession countries, so I believe.
  13. I like the way that all these people looking for a "safe haven" don't know the Swiss banks are loaded up with EUR 65 billion of Greek debt. You'd think they'd do some basic research.
  14. Royal Mail turned a decent profit last year, so this is obviously not being driven for efficiency reasons: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8049808.stm It's selling off assets to pay our creditors, with the RM itself no doubt also ending up in foreign ownership. Obviously Cable has to try to get this done before the austerity riots hit, otherwise this becomes a focus of attention for the general sell-out of the UK by the political class. Whatever, once globalisation has definitely broken down, it will be re-nationalised by force. I'll give it 15 years.
  15. The problem with gold (as with oil) is the price is distorted by all the paper ETF's - even if you buy the real stuff you can bite. You can't escape the Ponzimonster. People only think they can.
  16. Well the figures don't seem to add up because if the extended fund is €60bn and our contribution is €10bn we must be paying a hugely disproportionate amount into it. There would therefore appear to be two rumours - one that we are somehow to contribute €10bn in loans, and another that we are to support this existing fund. As I said, it's all very vague.
  17. He's talking his book. Some people will win by that, some will lose. Property investors could have made similar boasts in 2007. Investment is always gambling. The trick is not to become identified with what you're investing in.
  18. Well, yeah, but it's still a bit vague as to how Darling is "supporting" this. Depending on your paranoia, he could be offering the bare minimum that he can decently get away with, or pledging dangerous amounts of UK revenue to support it. At the moment, the details are far too sketchy to tell.
  19. It says the €60bn is an extension of an existing fund, not a loan.
  20. That doesn't suggest that Darling is going to offer anything more than verbal encouragement. Perhaps while waving a stripey scarf.
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