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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by CokeSnortingTory

  1. I like Kunstler. Like anyone who attempts to predict the future, he's never going to be 100% correct, but his vision is pretty sweeping, and he does consider possibilities that most people don't - e.g. if car use declines below a certain level, then road maintenance starts to become non-cost-effective, and therefore the car-centred society declines much quicker than anticipated etc. He obviously enjoys watching the bubble economy collapse, but even if you disagree with him, I'd find it hard to believe that you can't find him funny. The "Cheez Doodle" meme always cracks me up.
  2. I think we're seeing yet more short-termism here. I suspect one day, maybe not too far away, we'll be re-opening the rail-lines that Beeching cut, re-opening the coal-mines that Maggie sealed, and re-plumbing the Nuclear plants that Blair wound down. I'm not even sure that the conversion to e-mail is going to be that long-term. As credit fails, unemployment rises, Sterling falls etc., how many people will be able to buy computers like they have done over the last 10 years? Also, as I said earlier, how many private couriers are funded by high levels of debt leverage? Royal Mail may not make much business sense right now, but then "right now" is an unusual, historically aberrant set of circumstances. It was not created to be just another business. As other posters have said, it might be just one more thing that we happily cast aside for the sake of a fleeting ideology during a fleeting moment of history, but is this yet more infrastructure that we can ill-afford to lose in the long term?
  3. 'twil be interesting to see how the couriers' (all no doubt highly leveraged) business models work when oil prices start their inevitable rise again. I suspect that in the upcoming decades a re-nationalised rail service and compatible mail service will be inevitable. I think our current economic arrangements are an aberration.
  4. Hmmmm......I don't know. We've needed it for 350 years, and now suddenly we don't. It's like a lot of things that the neophytes tell us we no longer need - sustainable agriculture, coal and steel industries, horses, effective armed forces. Are these things really obsolete? Or do they just appear obsolete during a small envelope of time when we've been awash with cheap credit and energy?
  5. The aviation industry, in the words of Jim Kunstler, is toast. BAA's debt servicing will be interesting to observe over the next 12 months or so.....
  6. Those really are disgusting looking buildings. The only reason I could think of buying in docklands is because sooner or later those building will have to be knocked down and turned into docks again. Why? Well, when oil starts hitting $150+ per barrel again, how viable is the container industry? Think of any land in that area as compulsory-purchase central.
  7. I'm expecting 95% price falls in Dubai. For the more viable properties, that is.
  8. Would you be allowed to knock these places down and turn them into allotments?
  9. From Mish: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com...depression.html
  10. No, no, no. They're trying to keep the big banks alive for long enough that they're management cliques can extract as much capital as possible. Giving these banks more bailouts is the route to Japanese-style zombification. They need to be nationalised, have their assets valued mark-to-market, and then broken up into smaller viable institutions.
  11. The tea parties are a harbinger. We'll see tax strikes, both overt (by demonstrations) and covert (by people trading via barter etc.) Then possible attempts at seccession by individual states. Then it will start to get ugly.....
  12. @dissidentjunk But isn't alcohol taxed on alcohol % already? In real-ale pubs, strong beer is noticeably more expensive than weaker beers.
  13. Obviously booze is a release for millions of Britons who would otherwise be throwing themselves under trains, diving off Beachy Head etc. This is why British people tend to end up in hospital after boozing sessions, whereas French, Spanish people don't. With regard to tax, I'm amazed the brewing companies haven't just banded together and refused to pay the tax - after all the Government is actively trying to put them out of business.
  14. This is pretty much the last gasp of the social engineers. It's the sort of thing that you can only afford to do when you've got a booming economy with a large surplus - employ people for the sake of employing them, regardless of economic utility. That said, I don't see the Tories repealing this, as they usually go along with this kind of social liberalism to avoid looking "nasty". It'll die by being increasingly ignored as this kind of thing becomes less and less affordable. That's the irony of all this - the socialists have needed boom-capitalism to extend their "equality" agenda. When all the fluff jobs disappear and we're back to basic productive work - farming, mining, manufacturing etc. then the traditional gender roles will become reinforced again. "Equality" is just another side-effect of the 20th century oil boom.
  15. Big problem with shares at the moment is that in volatile times like now they're often subject to "pump and dump" market-manipulation operations. Maybe worth it as a hedge against hyperinflation if you believe that's going to happen (I don't, btw).
  16. Indeed this is the problem with the wealthy, they tend to hoard or transfer wealth rather than recycle it in spending. If you wanted to increase demand to stimulate the economy you would reduce tax on low earners. They also tend to inflate other assets as wealth stores (second homes, property portfolios, moorings etc.) which again diverts capital away from productive usage. They're parasitical sh*ts, basically.
  17. Well this is the problem with the terminologically incorrect term "crash" - it isn't a crash, just a readjustment to a reality-based (sanity-based) economy. The surplus countries don't want to encourage a boom in domestic demand, as they are as structurally crippled as we are. They're saving their cash to put out their own fires.
  18. Yes but average joe pays less for houses and other inflated assets so the economic effect is negligible. Probably. Besides, there's more to life than money....
  19. Because the Bundesbank thought anymore would be a strain on German industry.
  20. God this is terrible news. We're going to lapse back into a country that makes things and earns its way in the world. And assets will have to trade at fair prices. And business and trade will be based on honesty, respect and trust. And people will discover that each others' worth isn't based on wealth and how much they earn. I tell you it's a f**king nightmare.
  21. Beh. Pretty much every "advanced" country has deep structural problems - all this crisis is doing is cruelly exposing them piece by piece. It's much too early to call who's going to hit the bottom first and hardest. But, if you twisted my arm, I'd say the yen is the real ginger-haired child with a well-gay christian name who can't throw things properly.
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