Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

CokeSnortingTory

Members
  • Posts

    2,667
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by CokeSnortingTory

  1. Interesting blog from Charles Hugh-Smith with some photos of 1950's London, showing how a large, advanced capital city can function effectively (probably more effectively than it does now) without vast amounts of petrol-driven transport: http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay10/1950s-London05-10.html It reminds me that even in my childhood I used to see rag-and-bone men (horse driven) up until the late '70's. I expect to see a return of these gentlemen very soon. Anyone seen any yet?
  2. I love him too (really), but he neglected to mention that these technologies are only ever used by one side (the losing side with the big debts).
  3. Sorry Cogs - I was attempting to back you up (may have come across differently) As an aside, there are huge issues with trying to rationalise the huge sweep of human behaviour within the narrow rationalisations that are allowable in modern Western thought, but that's a topic for another time.
  4. tbh, I think there's perennial human behaviour, and then there's the spin that we put on it to slot it in with our contemporary ideas. i.e. women will always have babies, and a certain proportion of men will always go awol. We just construct the explanatory story in retrospect.
  5. It's simply a brilliant example of the mechanicalness of humanity, regardless of which sex you sympathise with. Certain socio-political arrangements suit men. Other socio-political arrangements suit women. Only a fool would believe that whatever socio-political arrangements we are currently experiencing now are due to "choice" or "progress" rather than happenstance. As Gurdjieff presciently said, man cannot "do", he can only experience what happens.
  6. That would only be the case if they were only speculating in UK markets, wouldn't it? My thoughts at the moment are that we are having an inflation (in CPI) wrapped inside a deflation (of M4) wrapped inside an inflation (of money available for speculation) wrapped inside a deflation (of a credit bubble bursting). But that's just off the top of my head.
  7. I'd love to see a chart of rare postage stamps vs. fiat, and also rare postage stamps vs. gold. Money supply charts will show a contraction of broad money, because as I said earlier, all the QE/ZIRP money is going into the speculative markets, and not the "real" economy.
  8. Nah. Best technique is to openly boast when you "predict" the market correctly, and keep schtum when you don't. Do this until you have encouraged other people to give you their money to "invest" with, leaving your own money safe from harm.
  9. They'll only be in foreign ownership for a short while, until the foreigners themselves go bust (hello Ferrovial). They'll find out that holding decrepit UK assets is a liability for them just a bit too late. After that they'll be owned by whatever quasi-dictatorial entity replaces the neoliberal ruling elite.
  10. Yeah - I expect to see continued contraction of the money supply with extreme price volatility. There'll probably be times when flat-screen TV's are cheaper than tomatoes.
  11. http://www.edp24.co.uk/content/edp24/news/story.aspx?brand=EDPOnline&category=News&tBrand=EDPOnline&tCategory=xDefault&itemid=NOED15%20Sep%202009%2017:54:47:397
  12. Mish discusses definitions of inflation/deflation here: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/12/humpty-dumpty-on-inflation.html His basic position (which I agree with) is that as price inflation can be so variable dependent upon what you put in the basket of goods that you measure it with, money supply + credit is a much more stable measure. My point about having CPI inflation with the money supply shrinking is e.g. if the commodities from which the CPI goods are manufactured are having their price increased by speculation then by the time they come on the market here they will be at a higher price regardless of how much money we have in the economy. Exchange rates will also have a large impact. Basically the inflation is occurring prior to goods entering the UK marketplace.
  13. Yeah - it's almost the opposite of your standard hyperinflation in which you drop money from the proverbial helicopter in order to maintain demand. This form of price inflation is killing demand - it's sacrificing the economy to save the banks.
  14. No I meant what I said. There are many definitions of what deflation is, but I stick to the classical definition that deflation is a contraction of the money supply, regardless of what happens to prices (which can be affected by other factors, such as exchange rates etc.)
  15. QE doesn't reach the man in the street - it is used by the banks to either directly fill their black holes or to speculate in assets/the markets to raise more money to fill the (ever-expanding) black holes. This creates asset price/commodity inflation regardless of consumer demand, but does not inflate the money supply. Doubtless where possible the QE is also carry-traded, which may increase liquidity elsewhere. Hence we have equity/asset bubbles and CPI inflation, but deflation of the money supply.
  16. The third runway is necessary to in order to provide a simulacrum of growth in order to fool investors into rolling over BAA's debts. Other than that, commercial aviation is toast.
  17. This kind of analogy doesn't really work because an engine is an enclosed system with two basic controllable inputs (air and fuel) so you can work your calculations back from there. If you had a computer with a randomisation programme for the fuel inlet valve and carburettor/turbo, you'd get something a bit closer to the climate.
  18. Well, I think you can presume most major ports will be operational, the rail network will probably exist and may even have some moribund lines reactivated (this is going on quietly now), much of the canal system will be back in operation (again, British Waterways have been quietly repairing quite a lot of this system). I would expect major roads to be kept in a useable condition, although to the minimum standard possible (which will still be expensive). I would expect many minor roads to be turned into gravel roads (which is 10% of the maintenance cost of a smooth surface.). Fuel supply priority will be given to agriculture and the military. Urban centres will often have trams and trolleybuses, though much more basic than the over-engineered Siemens stuff that gets bought now. Sources of power may be unreliable. I think towns and cities that grew up from some kind of meaningful relationship with the land or sea will survive reasonably well, but "planned" towns such as Milton Keynes etc. may struggle, as will towns or cities that experienced hypertrophic growth due to single industries. I think garden suburbs will really become garden suburbs. The level of trade will be based far less on consumer credit - what we can import will have to be balanced on what we can export. I would expect our imports to be far more focused on staples such as wheat, cotton, tea, coffee, fruit, meat, timber etc. that we can't supply ourselves. I can't foresee our exports being particularly impressive in terms of quantity but there may be some quality items or particularly innovative products that may bring in revenue. That said, I think trade will become increasingly informal, especially at the local level so talking about "nodes" and "supply chains" and even "competition" seems a bit redundant to me. People will essentially think differently and access to certain products will depend upon who you know. There will probably be plenty of Arthur Daley/Del Trotter types who will make a living on their wits. Following that, I think there'll be a bigger black market, and this will blend seamlessly into the official market. As with the 40's/50's I wouldn't be surprised to see a greater emphasis on overt morality (more people going to church) with a corresponding greater level of personal corruption in the conduct of daily life.
  19. I thought your original GulagTesco concept was quite sexy in a Doctor Who-ish kind of way, but this idea seems to relegate them to the position of supplier of exotics. My feeling is that as soon as you take away their volume, and thus their ability to bully suppliers, they somewhat diminish. They might survive as a distribution network, in the way that Woolworths did long after they became moribund, but I really can't see them being a vital force in the future I'm afraid.
  20. Dunno really. One of the problems Tesco's will have in the future is if the balance of power shifts between themselves and their suppliers. There are a lot of pissed off farmers who will take a deep joy in having the upper hand over the supermarkets if the balance of the relationship changes. And if Tesco can no longer strong-arm suppliers, where is their advantage?
  21. Yeah, well, souls had to be saved, which is why none of these places had ale houses. I think the point remains that religion was a big factor in their founding - of course there may have been a due level of hypocrisy in practice, but I can't think of any kind of organisation of this type which was agnostic.
  22. tbh, I think all this kind of debate about denialists/envirofascists is peripheral nonsense anyway. Simply, you either believe humanity is competent enough to make accurately predictive models of the climate, which is a complex system in which various essentially chaotic subsystems interact, or you don't. You do, I don't.
  23. As with Injin, I don't really understand this scenario. The only organisation that I can think of that was historically like this was the Co-operative Society, which was supported by the public as much for ideological reasons as any. It wasn't (isn't) a corporate entity of the type we know now, and its role in the supply chain only went as far back as the dairy and bakery, and not the farm or the workers' cottages. The main problem with this scenario for me is that the missing element is paternalism - what created Bournville, Saltaire, Port Sunlight etc. as well as the Co-op was as much Quakerish/Methodist ideas of moral improvement as capital. I can't see an essentially amoral corporate entity like Tesco or equivalent adopting this kind of holistic role. That said, I expect a renewed interest in religion to accompany the fragmentation following peak oil, so any corporate entity that has a religious aspect to its governance may have an advantage.
  24. So it's neutral then? So being a holocaust denier is a perfectly viable position, except in the technical sense of the rhetorical style they tend to employ? Interestingly the guy who wrote the NS article, Michael Shermer, used to meditate inside a pyramid in order to improve his athletic performance. When the pyramid failed, he became a rampant atheist and sceptic in everything except climate change.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.