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Everything posted by CokeSnortingTory

  1. He's talking about birth rates and not population levels. An increase in birth rates does not necessarily mean an increase in population level.
  2. In India they tried to lower the birthrate among the lower castes by giving rural villages free televisions. As population decline appears to be linked to lifestyle distractions, feminism and entitlements into old age, I expect birth rates to start rising very soon after the end of industrial capitalism, which will see disappearance of all these fads (sorry, I mean results of progress).
  3. This is the fallacy of certification-obsessed "education". Concorde was mostly designed and engineered by people who at most had HND's from their local technical college. You'll be surprised at what people can do if you give them a chance.
  4. All projections are ********. You can tell this because they are always without fail upward.
  5. One day, not too far into the future, all these dockyards will be required to be once again used as dockyards. Even if these buildings are worthless, the land they are built on is potentially very valuable.
  6. It's like the phrase "negative growth". Our culture has a taboo against the word "decline".
  7. Where are the corporate savings held though? Not overnight, surely? I would have thought most megacorps would have teams of people who do nothing more than shift money around the world to get the best value.
  8. Actually, I think the immigration aspect of this story is a bit of a red herring really. What is interesting is that the UK Government, in trying to persuade a foreign country to loosen trade restrictions against our goods and services, is not doing what any normal self-respecting country would do and threatening to restrict the access of their goods and services, but is consulting them on how to frame our domestic policy so that they might just consider loosening their restrictions at some indeterminate time in the future (maybe). I'm not sure whether this is because a) our entire ruling class is so committed to the shibboleths of "free trade" that they can't entertain the possibility of resorting to protectionism under any circumstances whatsoever, or b.) our economy is so forked that we'll gladly prostrate ourselves before anybody to make a few extra quid no matter what the humiliation, or c) both.
  9. Members of the Indian ruling caste want to be able to live in the lower Thames Valley alongside the Russian Oligarchs, Lebanese arms dealers, Greek shipping magnates etc. The resulting affect on Joe Bloggs or Joe Patel is not relevant to them.
  10. As far as I'm aware the longer term bonds are what the banks have been using to re-capitalise due to the net interest margin. Something, somewhere, has to be paying a high rate of interest for the banks to make money.
  11. Low interest rates now affecting banks' profitability: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-26/gift-from-fed-stops-as-profits-shrink-at-banks-led-by-jpmorgan.html
  12. The basic problem with Keynesians is that they believe that economic growth is ontological, i.e. that growth is what economies "do". Therefore any decline is a natural abberation to them, no matter whether it is caused by malinvestment, resource constrictions, ageing populations, a new Ice Age, alien invasion etc. etc. Thus to them drastic changes in environmental, social or diplomatic conditions can always be fixed via tweaks in monetary policy. It's plainly a batshit insane way of looking at the world, but these are the times we live in. As for Japan, their economic problems have their root in plain, simple corruption, as detailed here: http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/fl20090421zg.html
  13. As an occasional film-maker I'm glad to see the back of them. Hope the regional film agencies go to. They really are utterly hopeless if you need any help or advice.
  14. It just supports my long-held assertion that all "investment" is simply gambling on outcomes that no-one can predict. I stayed in Sterling purely because I couldn't be arsed to change, and have come out as a (just about) winner. Of course, it would have been more fun if I'd peppered my opinions with pictures of atomic explosions, links to hedge fund twats on Bloomberg who think that "Sterling only goes up in a crash" etc. etc. but I couldn't be arsed to do even that, sadly.
  15. Could you find us a reputable article that explains how the Japanese banking crash was related to demographic changes? esp. with reference to social security or pension costs, reduced labour force etc. I agree Japan does have demographic issues, but I believe these to be the source of future problems and not the current ones.
  16. Correlation is not causation. Japan had a catastrophic fall in birth rate from 1945 to 1957, then a rise from 1961 to 1973, then another drastic fall from 1973 to 1990, then a levelling off to the present day. All during that time, the population rose, at an ever decreasing rate, up until 2006, after which it has declined slightly. In 1989 the population was still rising. This is all fascinating stuff if you're looking for an Asian bride in your age range, but doesn't tell us why the Japanese banking system chose to collapse in 1989. Population is simply a red herring.
  17. I'm not really convinced about Japan's problems being population-driven. It's birthrate has been declining since 1945, which pre-dates its "economic miracle", and its population actually peaked in 2006, and is still by historical standards extremely high. You would have to follow the trend for another 50 years (in the unlikely event that a predicted trend actually proves correct) in order to see a real population impact. I think the real source of Japan's economic ills is the banking collapse of the 1990's, which was in itself derived from an unsustainable growth model, misallocated capital, Government bailouts etc. etc. Sometimes the obvious culprit is the correct one.
  18. Could be money to be made from this as tarmac can be melted down and re-used for roofing, bonding etc. Might be opportune for you to get to know some burly construction workers. If road haulage becomes non-viable due to oil prices, why would long distance trade continue at the same scale it is now? And if long distance trade contracts, why would you need to talk to people thousands of miles away? Also, you must be assuming that computers will be made out of wood. Or reconstituted tarmac.
  19. Not sure how this addresses the point I was making, tbh. Excellent spelling and grammar, though.
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