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CokeSnortingTory

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Everything posted by CokeSnortingTory

  1. Well, the strategy of HM Gov./BoE will be to draw down debt levels via currency devaluation/inflation, which they will attempt to do at a controlled level of 5% p.a., and will reduce debt by 50% over 12 years in real terms. They're pretty much in the sweet spot right now, which is why IR's won't be going up for the forseeable future. If this strategy continues, it's worth staying in cash if you can get a return of 5%+. If the economy gets really, really unstable however, they will let inflation rip in a 70's stylee, at about 10-15%. In which case it's useful hedging with PM's, land, vintage wines, long-odds horseracing bets etc.
  2. It's far worse than a mere systemic financial crisis, though. It's a Spenglerian civilisational decline woven into a limits-to-growth resources crisis. The financial crisis is only the most visible aspect of the predicament, and even then Our Glorious Leaders are only dimly aware of this aspect.
  3. You're right that religion will never disappear, but it has nothing to with belief. Religion is how human society creates ideal abstract models of itself, in order to model behaviour in respect to that ideal.
  4. Nice use of the smiley there. Famines tend to be the result of destabilising violence, and not vice-versa. Also, I know of no well known serial-killing famine victims.
  5. As far as I'm aware, the German army didn't use capital punishment in WWI, although they did in WW2, funnily enough. Unless they would have just shot him in the ankle, or something.
  6. I don't think you can extrapolate the behaviour of the whole of humanity from a sample size of one, tbh.
  7. Labour and the Tories essentially operate a good cop/bad cop routine on behalf of their corporate backers in order to delude the public that they have a "choice". Historically, what tends to happen in these situations is that the public, after suffering a certain level of abuse, start to prefer a nationalistic dictatorship instead. This is what is known as "Caesarism". Don't say you haven't been warned.
  8. All investment is gambling. All charts, trends and models are symbolic magical props intended to provide psychological support to gambling activities. All crowing about successful investment strategies is an attempt to attain shaman status by claiming the successful magical manipulation of symbols. I'll see you all in another two years.
  9. You have to remember this is Obama, so any eventual decision will be based on the following principles: Politics > Economics Short-term > Long-term
  10. Nay, I predict the end of the obesity/diabetes crisis and increased longevity. As long as people don't start taking up smoking Woodbines again.
  11. Another aspect people ignore is that the CPI basket of goods (a nominal typical shopping basket) is always being revised. This is why I don't see the rising cost of imports having as much impact as people expect - when we can no longer afford non-essential imported goods, we will stop buying them, and they will be removed from the CPI.
  12. It's always a strange sensation when somebody aggressively agrees with you.
  13. They'll try to control it within the 4-5% range that will halve the debt in 12-15 years without giving the sensation of things spinning out of control. Any comments they make that they are trying to bring it down should be dismissed as hand-waving/kabuki theatre. I said try, of course, because despite their flying start, I'm not totally convinced they can continue to stoke inflation within the context of a deflating broad money supply. They're still benefitting from the tailwind of the consumer-monkey behaviour that has been engrained in the UK public over the last decade or two. If attitudes to debt and consuming change, as they have done in Japan, and are starting to do in the USA, their strategy is forked no matter what they try.
  14. Children were pretty much invented by the Victorians though. Before that from the age of 7 you were classed as young man (and why not, you'd probably already lived a quarter of your life) and either sent to the fields, or if you were lucky given an apprenticeship in a guild. I'm always amazed how people cast current values retrospectively into the past and use them to condemn people whose values have to be incompatible. I bet if we could send coalition forces back into history to launch air strikes against the Tudors for their regressive values we would do.
  15. It'll probably go down again in a few weeks. Then up again. Then down again. Then up again. People will think there are deep, fundamental reasons for this happening. They will be wrong.
  16. Yeah, I was thinking more about the general idea of deficits being used to control the overnight rate, as outlined here: http://pragcap.com/the-message-is-getting-out-uncle-sam-isnt-going-broke/comment-page-1#comment-22155 Which I believe is part of MMT. Therefore I'm just trying to think of a future situation in which inflation may be caused by non-monetary issues such as resource shortages, and gilt issues having to be severely restricted in order to raise attractive enough yields for them to find buyers. The potential problem with Government borrowing contributing to the liquid money supply is that that money supply may at times be needed to be restricted when the Government itself needs to maintain or extend its borrowing.
  17. I think the interesting point for me is the relationship between gilts and the base rate, which seems to be subtler than generally acknowledged, in that the relationship is two-way. If gilts are being arbitraged to zero, then the UK Government is not going to be able to raise base rates even if it wants to. Which kind of removes Government's one lever for controlling the economy.
  18. I think you're buying into the myth here that markets have anything to do with fundamentals. If the last two or three years have told us anything, it's that they don't.
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