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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by CokeSnortingTory

  1. Well this did happen in the Seventies - e.g. the famous 17% pay rise at Ford. Less likely this time around of course, but it won't stop the BoE inflating.
  2. If you're cutting services at the same time, the costs may go up nominally, but not in real terms. Inflation isn't there to fix the economy - it's there to dampen the pain of the inevitable and irreversible decline. Well, it's boiling a frog isn't it? The economy is already pretty much finished - the purpose is to string out the dawning of this realisation for as long as possible.
  3. Is there not a tech college near you where you can learn plumbing, carpentry, electrical installation, bricklaying etc.? Not wanting to sound alarmist, but I think anyone who doesn't have a useful trade in the near future will only have the option of farm work.
  4. But the debt doesn't start at 0. The existing debt shrinks in real terms. If, as you appear to believe, debts can't be inflated away, why does everybody do it?
  5. What you need to realise is that you are not replacing humans with machines. You are replacing them with fossil-fuel derived energy. The machines are merely the tools that the energy uses. And the sources of that fossil fuel energy are subject to depletion. Scarily so. An old favourite: http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2010/04/twilight-of-machine.html
  6. Pretty much expected. As I've long said the strategy is 5% inflation/devaluation over 12 years to halve the debt in real terms. If the debt starts to grow despite this, they'll just up the level of inflation/devaluation to 10-20% p.a. It's exactly what they did in the Seventies. We are going to get poorer because all the economic "growth" we've experienced since 1979 has been based on ever more dubious "innovations" in credit. It'll be worse than the 70's though, because we're further into the resource depletion that we just started to hit in that decade (whose problems pretty much begain when U.S. oil extraction peaked). Industrial Western civilisation is a dying beast. Our privilege is to bear witness to it.
  7. Yes - I can also see things like internet usage declining precipitously as well. All the social networking utilities are really boom-froth rather than the portals to the future their advocates make them out to be. It'll be interesting to see how long they last once the trivialists abandon them. That said, I think alcohol will eventually return to its pre-emininent position as the reality-annihilator par-excellence.
  8. Briefly: Tesco is ponzi scheme in that it's debt-driven expansion requires an ever-expanding economy to provide the turnover to convince its lenders to continuously roll over its debts. Western economies are already in the early stages of an epic, decades-long (perhaps centuries-long) contraction. This contraction is due a financial crisis in which resource-limits to expansion (esp. the gradual depletion of cheap oil) were papered-over for three decades with various "innovations" in the financial system. The contraction is going to take us back to a less technologically complex society which is more biased towards agriculture. Tesco have an extensive land bank that will become a great asset in a future agrarian society, if they can survive as an organisation during the troubles inbetween then and now (doubtful, imho).
  9. Well, I suppose we'll see all sorts of strange things happen. I personally think Tesco is a ponzi scheme/disaster waiting to happen, but if it can hang on to its land bank, then I guess it could become a de facto lord of the manor.
  10. Could you point to where you think I'm factually wrong, then.... Edit: ah, just realised you were referring to my username, and not my post. In answer to your question, I don't think so - he was a real gent was Rab.
  11. Interestingly, of all the civilisations that have existed in the entirety of human history, only one, Western civilisation, has felt the need to invent any economic theory. The underlying purpose of all of them is not to explain what is going on, or to provide an ideal template, but simply to fool us into ignoring our dependence on Nature.
  12. One of my outside bets in regard to this crisis, and the general disenchantment with democracy, is a gradual re-emergence of monarchs/royalty as power-players. It's very easy to imagine this happening in Japan, for instance, especially as the American influence starts to decline.
  13. In the cycles of history, the spread of the University is a sure sign of decadence and incipient decline. Within 20 years, I expect at least 50% of UK universities will have closed. They were as much a sign of our delusions as the housing bubble and the Range Rover Vogue.
  14. Another point is that the SNP have become enamoured with Norway's Sovereign Wealth Fund as a means of guaranteeing income long after North Sea Oil depletes (i.e. income in perpetuity), whereas the reality is that the Norway SWF has had to invest in all sorts of dubious stuff in order to guarantee a return (e.g. Greek bonds, Dubai property etc): http://www.zerohedge.com/article/following-major-losses-norway-sovereign-wealth-fund-hits-infinity-pares-exposure-greek-debt I think Norway's SWF will be worthless shortly after its oil runs out, because it is investing in an obsolete global economy that by necessity will have to contract.
  15. No it isn't clear at all. I've read some long and tediously detailed articles about where the responsibility for RBS lies, and as far as I can tell it is headquartered both in Edinburgh and London, with each HQ being responsible for various parts of RBS's business. And, being a bank, there's a certain degree of opaqueness as to which part of the business is responsible to the other parts. Obviously, almost everybody who frequents this site likes binary, blame-apportioning arguments (because they're not particularly bright), but in the real world RBS and HBoS are a real mess that everyone will try to avoid taking responsibility for.
  16. There'll be no clean, clear break between the UK and a nominally independent Scotland in divvying up responsibility for either of these monsters. I suspect it's part of the reason why Alex Salmond is moving toward fiscal independence in the short-to-medium term rather than full independence.
  17. Obviously, I have less experience in keeping battery hens than you have in being a twit.
  18. IIRC in one of the Maritime acts, the "sea border" between England and Scotland is 50 deg. N. I think almost all the oil fields lie within the Scottish sector. That said, I strongly suspect that the new Clair field is being hyped - it's probably got as much to do with BP's share price and the UK's AAA rating as any putative energy self-sufficiency. Salmond will play along with Westminster, just as he did during the Al-Megrahi affair. He's far less of a boat-rocker than he likes to portray himself to be.
  19. You can buy an ex-battery hen for £3: http://www.bhwt.org.uk/cms/re-home-some-hens/ Then you can get your eggs for chickenfeed.
  20. Perception is everything. Get hold of that book Injin, while there's still some left - honestly, you'll love it.
  21. True, but then so do tribal chiefs, band matriarchs, witchdoctors etc. "Legitimate" hierarchy does not begin with the state.
  22. If you read that book, you'll know more than The Archdruid - don't be put off by the fact it's obscure, most really important knowledge is. I don't often agree with you scepticus, but I do respect your willingness to learn, and consider new ideas.
  23. This is simply untrue. From a purely anthropological point of view, the pattern is: Band > Phratry > Tribe > "People" or "Race" > Civilisation (in certain rare instances) The band (an extended family of 12-20 people) is the basic unit of humanity (note: not "individuals"), followed by the phratry, which is a number of bands related by lineage where there is a surplus to support them, followed by the tribe, which is a number of phratries etc. Please also note that bands and phratries are matriarchal, whereas the first of appearance of the patriarchy is at the tribal stage (neolithic at the earliest), so if anyone tells you that men have always oppressed women, it is complete nonsense. Anyway, if anyone is going to discuss what is "natural" for humans I recommend this book: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Stolen-Lightning-Social-Theory-Magic/dp/0826400590/ref=sr_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1318535779&sr=1-2 which is one of the best books ever written about anything, and will save no end of ********. Plus we all like a bit of magic don't we?
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