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da77enj

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  1. Many thanks all for taking the time to reply. Much appreciated and you certainly know your stuff about the local housing market. As both lolacarrascal and Shotoflight have alluded to, it certainly appears to me that the market has corrected (is correcting) "from the bottom up" and that semi-detached and detached houses have some way to go to reach the bottom in BT8 (this may well be influenced by some wishful thinking on my part). I've been looking at houses and reviewing house price reports etc for the last four years and have to say that i'm no closer to moving now than i was four years ago. The gap between my terraced house and semi-detached / detached houses in the area seems to have increased. It would be very hard to justify trebling my mortgage to add a garage and (possibly) an extra bedroom. Much better to sit tight and use the money to pay off capital rather than interest.... House does look great though, right enough Vespasian. Thanks again Darren
  2. Hi, Am seeking some advice / opinions. I am looking to move on from my 3 bed terrace in BT8 to something just a little larger. 4 beds and a garage would be nice. As wife doesn't drive and we have primary school age kids, we are pretty much tied to BT8 at the moment. I note that throughout NI as a whole house prices, having fallen by 50% from peak, tend to be at or around (and in many cases below) RV. Have been looking (waiting) for quite a while and although prices have fallen significantly in this post code area, they don't seem to be close to RV yet (at least asking prices aren't). Was wondering if you feel tht RV is a realistic target purchase price in this area for this type of property? DJ
  3. Have also been waiting on BoI / UoU Q2 report. Would have expected this a couple of weeks ago, but site is still showing Q1. Wonder if MoD houses sold in Ballykelly will be in Q2 figures? Will be interesting to see how this impacts figures and what commentary will be put against it.
  4. Currently 1.8 x joint salary. Would be prepared to go to 3.75.
  5. Stumbled across this article on a New Zealand website. Interesting new angle on house price cycles (at least new to me) discussing a possible link to the baby boom. He calls it the "pig in the python" effect. Quite wordy but worth a read. It sounds very feasible. The article discusses New Zealand property but I guess the same phenomenon could apply in UK. Source: www.babyboomersguide.co.nz The House Price Crash of 2010 A thought-provoking article by Graeme Kennerley A million dollar house sold for $450,000... sounds unbelievable? Then read on.... I want to put on public record the reasons why I predict that the upper part of the New Zealand residential property market will loose as much as 60% of its value starting around the year 2010. It's all about demographics and, in particular, the generation of people known as the Baby Boomers. These are defined as the people born in the years following World War Two, (between the years 1946 and 1964). This generation was delivered at a birthrate four times higher than at any other time known in history. Over one million babies were born at a rate of one hundred thousand per year, when New Zealand's population was just 2.5 million. This 'Pig In The Python' effect has moved through society and has had a very significant impact at every stage. Today the 'boomers generation makes up one quarter of New Zealand's population and the bulge has not leveled out despite natural population movement and a planned immigration policy over the last fifty years. However, there is a second part of the “Pig In The Python" problem and that is the rapid drop off in birth rate that immediately followed the baby boomer generation. Once all the families that could have babies had completed their procreation, there was a large dip in the baby- making cycle that lasted another ten or so years. In other words, anyone that could have children all had them during the 1950's. What then followed was a 'vacuum' effect with very few babies being born over the next ten years. Contributing to this vacuum was the fact that very few children were born during the uncertainty of the preceding war period. These young people arrived at their reproductive age about 1960 and their low numbers further compounded the 'vacuum'. This trailing dip in the graph, this ten year vacuum, this whiplash that followed the bulge has been the cause of as much readjustment in society as the rising wave that preceded it yet this effect has gone largely unnoticed. I call this the ‘Post Baby Boomer Vacuum Phenomena’. No other commentators have dwelt on this part of the effect but it is very significant. Social chaos followed in the wake of the baby boomer generation as it moved through all its various stages. In the beginning maternity wards couldn't cope with the large numbers of babies being born but then went quiet from 1960 onwards. The same thing happened with Primary Schools bursting at the seams with huge rolls and teachers burdened with 40 kids per class. But then overflowing classrooms suddenly emptied and teachers were in oversupply as the wave moved on. Organizations like Boy Scouts that up till then had flourished, faced difficulties recruiting numbers and became a shadow of their former self in the wake of much lower numbers. During the 1980's I belonged to a young men's service club called Round Table New Zealand. Things went along well until the organization faced severe membership problems around 1990, the year that the average baby boomer turned 40 years old which was also the age at which all Round Tablers' faced mandatory retirement from the club. Young men were required to retire but no new members were taking their place. In a last ditch effort to keep the organization alive, the retirement age was increased to 45 years. But that only delayed the inevitable and exactly 5 years later the organization became extinct. Round Table New Zealand folded completely, a victim of the Post Baby Boomer Vacuum Phenomena as no new members could be found to sustain the club. Now we arrive at the present time: Babyboomers have completed their own family cycle with the expensive years of bringing up children behind them and they are mostly at the peak of their earning years often with both partners still working. But unlike their own parents, this group has lashed out lavishly on personal consumption. Not for them the discipline of saving and going without as a run up to their own retirement. No sir, these people have done the exact opposite and have built huge new homes for themselves, have purchased other holiday property, lifestyle blocks or timeshare apartments and have filled their garages with all sorts of toys like 4x4 trucks, boats, Harley Davidsons and classic cars to name just a few. Predictably, as the 'boomers built or bought their dream homes, these properties skyrocketed in value. With a million 'boomers all buying property at roughly the same time, it was no wonder that prices escalated. My most recent property development in Christchurch was an 18 lot high quality, hillside sub-division pitched entirely at this market. With no schools nearby and a need to have two cars per household, in every case bar none these empty nesters built five bedroom, two and a half bathroom homes with treble garages. That means there are 90 bedrooms, 45 bathrooms and 54 garages for 18 couples. Think about that - there are 18 bedrooms occupied yet 90 bedrooms built! And there are tens of thousands of this type of home now being built up and down the country. Real estate statistics now show that 2005 was the peak of the recent property price boom and that it has plateaued since. This is exactly in alignment with the last of the 'boomers buying into this phase of their housing needs. There is now a lull that will last until the first of these folk start to sell out and move into their next stage of life - downsizing, rationalizing, flushing out equity for their retirement and the like. But the trouble is there are very few 'families' coming along behind them as this ten year gap in the population still exists. In fact the last three consensus figures show that only 18% of New Zealand's population now live in a 'nuclear family unit' with Mum & Dad and their children living under the same roof. Society has changed dramatically. The next generation (Gen-X born 1964 - 1980, essentially the children of the baby Boomers) and their much smaller families are not only significantly smaller in number but they have a completely different criteria for their housing needs. This group is burdened with large student loans and a much later entry into their childrearing days, bought about by much longer training and qualifying periods before they are even able to enter the job market. They will also be looking for much more efficient cost/quality housing solutions close to schools, jobs and malls. They have no use for an olive grove in Ohoka, a vineyard in Marlborough, a large home in Taupo or a home stay on the Coromandel. And as for the extensively refurbished family homes within the desirable high school zones that the 'boomers have been sitting on for years, chances are the Gen-X'ers don't need all those bedrooms and won't want to commit that much money to their housing anyway. In other words, the retiring Baby Boomers will become a victim of the Post Baby Boomer Vacuum Phenomena. So I believe there is a crunch time coming and it's in the wake of the 'boomers moving on around year 2010 when the first wave will turn 65. As they find themselves alone without a spouse or incapacitated by a stroke or breast cancer or whatever, then the appeal of their mini-mansions overlooking the grape vines or in a leafy suburb will quickly fade. Once the architecturally-designed summer house in the Bay of Islands has not been used for a year or two; once they finally realize that their married daughter living in London or Sydney actually won't be moving back to the family home, then they will start to sell their assets. As 100,000 'boomers every year for the next ten years reach this stage it will severely soften the market. A stable market requires a balance between prudent buyers and willing sellers. But the difference between over supply and under supply is not a thousand, not a hundred, or fifty, or twenty or even ten. The difference between over supply and under supply is one. Just one. Only one makes a difference. This is where I differ from most other commentators who have failed to pick up on this critical point. Let me explain…….. If ten buyers are chasing ten properties in the market then a sense of balance persists and it comes down to a matter of choice between prudent buyer and willing seller. If there are eleven people chasing ten properties then the feeling is one of under supply of property. This causes price escalation in the market. The first one to commit gets the house and this encourages other buyers to act quickly and not to barter too much - a condition that 'boomers have become used to all their lives But when there are only nine people looking at ten properties, then there is a feeling of oversupply in the market and buyers will become very bargain conscious. They will start making low offers which at some point a motivated vendor will accept. This is the start of the fall in the market as one low sale in the street sets the new value for all the others. And the same will happen in the Stock Market. Same principle; it only takes one more seller than there is a buyer to create a falling market. And 'boomers have experienced this situation before - remember the October 1987 share market crash when billions of dollars were written off the boards within days. This is why many 'boomers never returned to the stock market preferring instead to keep all their financial eggs in one real estate basket. Of course in the beginning most 'boomers will hold off and not sell to bargain hunters. Some will even transfer their homes to their children via the very popular Family Trust arrangements at a very low attributed value. Neither of these situations is a true sale and they haven't got their cash out either. Sooner or later someone will have to sell and this will be the crack in the dam, the thin edge of the wedge. More and more 'boomers will need to quit their properties as they need to substantially down size or move into retirement homes and there simply is not the volume in the market to buy these poorly located behemoths at the prices expected by the vendors. This is when the million dollar homes will be worth little more than a modest home in an average city because that is the competition for the buyer's dollar. Added to this, as the value drops, unfortunately the debt does not and, like a pyramid buried in the desert, as the winds of the market blow away the sands of equity, the rock solid pile of debt remains exposed. Even if they don't sell and continue to rattle around in their huge homes, there will be a feeling of poverty set in that they haven't known since their student days as they come to terms with their financial predicament. This is likely to become a 'boomers legacy as they struggle to maintain the equity that will be required to take them into the next phase of their lives, the retirement villages that will already be bursting at the seams with other 'boomers ahead of them. And the cycle will go round one last time as the 'boomers enter the rest homes against a wave of lifting values, rising costs and competition from their own as has been the case all their lives. Graeme Kennerley graeme@grkennerley.com
  6. Fair point. This was of course a key finding of the report, but in all honesty, i didn't mention price rise as i was working on the assumption that everyone on forum was already aware of this from previous reports such as that from Nationwide. I wasn't being biased (at least not intentionally) ;-)
  7. I think it is an excellent report as always. Not sure which part you thought i was disagreeing with? I said I thought that the data was "difficult to interpret". I think this in tune with the mood of the document. I said that I thought transaction volumes were an important indicator. Don't think this condradicts anything in the report? I said that I thought prices had a little further to fall. This is of course only my opinion but again I wouldn't say it contradicts the general feeling of the report. To quote from Alan Bridle's summary: - "An initial reading of the latest results may also prove a little puzzling - the average price of a local property has risen for the second consecutive quarter (to £164k) implying that at a regional level the price recession could be over. This would be surprising and, quite possibly, a premature conclusion..." and regarding prospects "In my view, it will also not be surprising if we see much greater variability in the average price in the coming quarters. With the price adjustment in the “new build” segment probably complete, any significant increase in developer sales could, as a consequence, drag the overall average price back towards the £150,000 mark..." I make no secret of the fact that i'd like to see prices fall further. The report doesn't say that this will happen but it certainly doesn't say that it won't.
  8. BoI / UoU Q3 report now available. Very difficult to interpret data again. For me, the key indicator is continuing low transaction levels. For my money, more modest falls to come, say another 10 - 15%, bottoming out in late 2010. Bit worried though that Belfast detached and semi's seem to be stubbornly holding their value. Will be interested to hear how the folks on here interpret this report. http://www.bankofireland.co.uk/bank-of-ireland-group/financial-news/boi-house-price-index/
  9. Found this interesting and wondered to what extent you think RoI price drops will impact on NI market... Average House Prices Are Now Back at January 2004 Levels - Report Tuesday, September 29, 2009 2:07 AM (Source: Irish Times) By DOMINIC COYLE AVERAGE HOUSE prices in Ireland are now back at the level seen in January 2004, according to the latest ESRI/Permanent TSB house price index . Prices fell by 1.5 per cent in August, according to the data released yesterday, bringing the decline in the past year to 13 per cent. According to the survey, house prices have now been falling for two full years and are 24.4 per cent lower than at their peak in February 2007. Niall O'Grady, general manager of business strategy at Permanent TSB, said the rate of decline had been more dramatic during the summer due to the low levels of activity in the market and a lack of confidence in any recovery this year. "Recently, prices have started to fall faster in the Dublin region due to the high level of surplus stock available," he said. House prices in Dublin have fallen by 18 per cent over the past year, compared with a 12 per cent decline for property outside the capital, the survey found. The average price for a house in Dublin is now [euro]306,795 compared to [euro]351,096 at the turn of the year. Away from Dublin, the average price is now [euro]204,524. At the end of 2008, the average was [euro]223,984. The survey is likely to show further falls in coming months as the index is a three-month moving average and is based on agreed sale prices, but only calculated when mortgages are actually drawn down. The time lag between a price being agreed and a deal closed means that the influence of the lacklustre summer market will be felt for some time yet. The lack of activity in the market is illustrated by the dearth of detail in the Permanent TSB survey. Traditionally, the survey provided data on the prices being paid by first-time buyers compared to people trading up. However, the lack of business in the market has led the Economic and Social Research Institute to determine that there is not a sufficient sample size to produce meaningful data. The same is true for figures on the difference between new and existing properties and for the performance of homes in the commuter counties. On the basis of the survey, however, it is likely that most people who acquired their home in the past five years are now experiencing some degree of negative equity. Originally published by DOMINIC COYLE. © 2009 Irish Times. Provided by ProQuest LLC. All rights Reserved.
  10. Anyone know when Q2, 2009 University of Ulster / Bank of Ireland survey results are due to be released? Think Q1 report came out in mid May so am guessing mid August?
  11. Dohhh! Forgot to post the link, and guess post didn't make much sense without it. Thanks Ride On for pointing this out and adding on my behalf. Yes, I was being a little light hearted. Of course £145K would be outrageously over the odds for a house like this (but the man was a legend). Suppose I still wouldn't pay £65K over RV for it though.
  12. Never thought these words would escape my lips, but shouldn't this house be worth more!
  13. Thanks for feedback. Was sure those houses were well over priced. Not just me then. Have been looking in Four Winds but think he prices are still quite high there too. Could get a 3 bed semi for £175K but would probably need some work. Was hoping that being a new development the Bracken Hill houses would be priced competitively to sell quickly i.e. would beat resale homes in Four Winds to the bottom. Seems not. Rosetta is an interesting idea. Hadn't really thought of that. Need something near a good primary school. Had never heard of Rosetta PS but it sounds ok. Think i'll have to wait it out for a year or so. Thanks again DJ
  14. Hi all, Have been a regular (daily) visitor over the last year or two but this is my first post. Have been waiting patiently for Bracken Hill development to be released. Looking to move from my terrace house to a three bed semi or four bed if I could get at a reasonable price. Houses look ok but have to say that i was a little disappointed when I saw prices (3 bed starting at £235K and 4 bed starting at £300K. Would be interested in hearing what everyone thinks would be reasonable prices for these houses? http://www.templetonrobinson.co.uk/develop..._info&d=155
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