house123

INVESTORS. Housing is a market place and it has existed for the last 20 years to make people money. We will just become a nation of renters

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Who said the tories are getting in? Remember the same people who think unsustainable house price rises are a good thing (The many), can also see a recovery underway, whether it be real or not.

This is a very common situation and in my opinion is a major contributor to why prices rose in 2009, as affordability returned for a few. In short, there is not enough of the right kind of housing in the right locations and this was a major contributor to the rise in prices from the mid nineties onwards. Supply of the right kind of properties is and has been the problem for the last 25 years and begun with the sell off and non existance of the building of suitable council houses. This meant that future lower classes would be in the market for buying houses, the banks made mortgages more available with lower LTV's and greater multiples and boom. The housing market may come down a little more, but only until it reaches the top of the current unaffordable group. The long and short of it is we must temporarily close our borders and then sacrifice green field sites and build enough houses for us all, whatever our incomes. The country side is beautiful, but I would give some up for a happier population with more available cash in their pockets. At the end of the day, what’s a nice view when most of the population are so fecking miserable. Just imagine if everyone could buy a property and service the mortgage with 25% of their income. This would mean that the wealth of this country would be more evenly spread through all levels of society and would have major benefits for the whole economy and society as a whole. Anyone who says the years leading up to 2007 was a credit bubble is talking rubbish. If there had of been enough property in this country, credit would have never been an issue. Finally and controversially anyone who thinks that the supply of new housing has not been controlled is naïve, this is modern capitalist tool at creating ever greater wealth from nothing, but of course this only works for so long as people can afford to join the pyramid at the bottom. The sad thing is the general population are the only people who can end this, they must demand, a lessening of building restrictions on green belt, a new council house infrastructure where needed and new builds of the right type and in the right locations. About 3 million people marching through London about six weeks before the general election should do it. Who’s with me? OK, Sorry, rant over.

I have tried to buy a house a couple of times this year and both times the purchase has fallen through. This has been obviously very frustrating and of course financially detrimental as the process as broken down, on both occasions very close to exchange. I have a deposit of about £25,000 but have lost about £2000 because of these two failures. I have my deposit in a couple of savings accounts paying about 3% and as you can imagine this is not really giving me any real return. Equally I am not contributing anything to my deposit at the moment either. Therefore has anyone got any sensible advice on how to get a better return... i.e. shares, currency, gold etc?

You have to ask yourself why so many INVESTORS and people with LARGE CASH DEPOSITS bought houses this year.

The supply thing worries me. I see a lot of bears saying when supply arrives, house prices drops will recommence. However, only repossessions can offer a massive serge of supply over demand. In my opinion supply will enter the market fairly steadily as sellers become more confident in the wider economy. After all, the majority of people selling will be buying and will likely require a bigger mortgage. Therefore they will need to feel comfortable that they can service that increase in debt.

I think for sentiment to really change we must see negative numbers creep into March, April and May. Figures from Nov to Feb can always be dismissed as seasonal. If an EA gave this as a reason for price drops during this period, I would probably agree that it was an honest assumption. However, it may encourage me to wait until the spring and see what happens and I think the wider public would come to the same conclusion. Therefore March and April are in my opinion the trigger months. Who blinks first? If we see investors piling in as we did earlier this year and this buoy’s the market, then I would speculate that this may well be seen as the end of this HPC. It is my opinion that measuring this crash against any other, is flawed. I am afraid QE has completely muddied the waters for all economists. Rightly or wrongly, what ever happens, this world-wide recession will be the marker for all future downturns.

It’s a step in a direction of course, but only one step. If the man in the street hears 2 ups against one down then he will side with the ups, a minority can be explained away. There must be more downs then ups for sentiment to change.

Bulls and Bears who take anything from a monthly figure should always do so with caution. Yes, it's a negative, but the bulls will easily explain this away as the time of year and to be fair this would be a logical explanation for anybody to presume.

With all due respect the house builder shares have been on the up since Dr Bubb declared the end of the spring bounce. Also the data from Persimmon today is going to stick a rocket up house builder shares. Persimmon’s only note of caution was mortgage availability and that does seem to be improving, even their debts are decreasing. I am normally pretty bearish about most things however if I had money to invest I would be putting a medium term lump sum in the house builders. It’s only my opinion but unless they are going out of business, which in all probability would have happened by now, house builders share prices can not go much lower.

I agree. Remember Rightmove was down 2.2% in August. On a monthly basis this index generally makes little sense.

I am guessing it’s a good job there is not one tree per person then............. numb nut

This is a question for the STR’s or anyone saving a deposit. How have you invested your money, to give you a good return which allows you to jump if the right property comes along? Is a 3% instant access savings account the only option?

Never under estimate the power of sentiment. The truth only hurts if you know the truth.

I have been keeping a close eye on a particular area of Suffolk since January. The area has consistently about 300 properties on right move and as you would expect, that’s a mixture of ‘for sales’ and ‘solds’, now with the latter being majority. What I have found interesting is the activity in this small market has generally been aligned with the turn in house price indexes, the positive surveys, and reports coming from all corners telling us that the housing market has found the bottom However, in the last few weeks I have noticed activity seems a little different. I am seeing less houses being sold for starters, I am also seeing a few more properties coming on to the market. I have also noticed that there are an increasing number of properties becoming available again, after being sold. Also, I can honestly say I am seeing the greatest number of price reductions I have seen at anytime (Property Bee). I also have a few EA friends (they really are friends!), who have said August is looking tough, with lots of sales falling through because people REALLY can not get a mortgage. Now, this could just be an odd two weeks in a generally upward trend. But has anyone else spotted this potential shift back down again?

Yessss. OK then............. have a nice night.

Then that answers my question. House prices will continue to rise, because from my experience that’s the kind of people that have been buying houses recently and let’s face it for the last 5 or 6 years. The VI’s have the media and the government on their side; it cannot fail with friends like that.

You seem to like my posts. You have done something similar to a few before.

Look. This is what the sheeple, as some of you call them on here, understand. X House costs £150,000 I have a £25,000 Deposit I need to get a mortgage for £125,000 Now these sheeple who have been buying believe that X house is now going up in value. So next month it will be worth £151,000 and so on. Now is X house going to go up or down in value over the coming months.

I will never understand the FTSE. The worst UK GDP figures in half a century and the index stays static. However, some poor consumer data from the US and the thing sinks 1%. What is the point of the FTSE if it just clones US data, would it not be better just to have a global stock market?

The one I will pay when I buy.

It would appear that on this site you either have to be a full on bull or bear. However, most will agree that the forecast for house prices is probably somewhere in the middle of the arguments. So.. The question to all is… can house price growth continue from this point onwards? And do try and be as honest as possible, even the EA’s. It would actually be good to have a post that might actually help people make the right decision about buying.

LOL.. you know its stealth Quantitive Easing

I know sible, renie and mash, or whatever, will pick at this statement. But, I was thinking something similar in that the rampers may become the boy who cried wolf. Let’s say prices go down for a couple of months more. It may, be very counter product for the rampers, especially as the general public are very switched on with s**t coming from VI's in suits at the minute, what with the MP’s expenses etc.