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Posts posted by leicestersq

  1. To be realistic with the German people he should be open that the bailout period needed for Greece to get real growth and to enable it to stand on its own feet economically is likely to be an order of magnitude longer than the 8 years currently being presented to the German people.

    Even 50 years of bailouts likely won't be enough but it's far more realistic if they want the bailouts "to lead to success".

    If Germany gives Greece a bailout big enough for it to make Greece solvent, even for a minute, Germany wont be.

  2. incorrect, need to adjust for inflation, since long term real interest rates don't change much (I realise they do short term) then long term IRs do not affect house prices, rents and house prices should follow a similar ratio long term therefore

    I am not so sure that you really have disagreed with me. You say that if long term interest rates dont change, then the ratio of house prices to rents dont change. That doesnt contradict my position.

    Long term interest rates do change though. Isnt the rate over 600% in Greece?

    Rates in the UK are very low, and you would expect all asset prices to increase as a result. It is simple arbitrage. If the cost of borrowing is 4%, and you calculate that the return on buying a house is 10% from rental income, then someone somewhere will buy, and bid up the price of that property, until the yield from rental falls to the same sort of percentage as leaving your money in the bank.

  3. Foreign money is absolutely still coming in to certain areas of London. Friends of mine just gazumped by Russian cash buyers for a family house in Ealing.

    The UK is putting its own working population at a disadvantage as it lets money flow in to buy property. It's the same in the job market. For instance, I know people coming in from countries where they have compulsory military service applying for security jobs. The security companies like the idea that someone has been in the military, yet I know several people who got out of doing service but have put on their CVs that they did - yet this wasn't checked up. Much easier to generally falsify past degrees and experience when they have been gained abroad.

    People are also flowing in at the bottom end which puts pressure on rents in London and keeps the buy to let landlord busy. I was in Stratford shopping centre last week (not Westfield, the old one across the road), if you took out everyone from there who was a first generation immigrant, you would have removed at least 70% of the clientèle I'd say. Many of these people will settle and will bring in ageing relatives, might marry someone from home etc. etc. I've said it before I know but I really don't think you can appreciate the massive inflows of people to London until you've spent time on buses and trains in the outer zones of London and hung out at a few bars in Mayfair for the other end of the picture.

    A great anecdotal TB.

    There is the reason for the housing crisis in one.

  4. that's interesting

    still doesn't explain why rents and house prices are disconnected

    but essentially if they lose in real terms 50% they are not bothered, from the sounds of things, still doesn't mean they won't lose this

    Rents and house prices are disconnected?

    I thought that there was a very strong link. Use the interest rate and you can turn a capital value into an equivalent income stream. A rent will be near the value of that income stream, taking into account the costs of renting including repairs and voids and stuff.

  5. I was just wondering when we started talking about 50% house price falls in the old Northern Ireland thread.

    This is the first post where I mention it - http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=37941&view=findpost&p=730207 14th August 2007.

    Though it was mentioned before that.

    For the record, I was wrong. It took 4 years :unsure::lol:

    Here's some more posts around that time...

    JoeDevola - "50% drops are needed to bring houses in NI anywhere near affordable levels. Although I do find it hard to believe that house prices will ever fall 50% :("

    tara747 - "Why? If they can double in value, they can halve in value."

    Sour Mash - "Of course they can - they rose massively in a speculative bubble. Once the speculation stops they'll be forced back into line with what is 'affordable' to the market of people actually looking to buy a house to live in."

    Belfast Boy - "Even I find it hard to believe. However, my research into housing bubbles leads me think that those percentage drops are correct."

    That old thread is fun to read sometimes.

    Those who called similar drops on mainland Britain have been spectacularly wrong. Maybe those in the north of the UK might have seen some drops, down south though, nary a price weakness to be seen.

  6. I suspect the number that own properties and keep them empty is very small in relative terms, again would be happy to discuss this

    those who simply rent pout their property instead are not contributing to demand, their tennants are, and rrperesnt the same demand that would be there if said tennants bought the place instead, except for a net subsidy to the UK housing market FROM India, which should drop rents and therefore benefit us

    There has been a huge problem before the recent housing boom, with rich people buying second homes in places like Wales and Devon and Cornwall, with locals being unable to buy.

    I bet the problem in the UK from internationals is smaller, but it is clearly growing fast. Given that we have a serious housing crisis in the UK, or perhaps a 'land' crisis might be a better term, any second home owners from abroad is a worry. I dont see any high rates of tax being levied against such properties to alleviate the injustice of this upon the UK population.

  7. here in which case they are covered by the immigration numbers which we saw do are fully accomodated by current building levels

    I think that this is unlikely. Most would say immigration is under-reported by a huge amount. People aint building sheds in gardens because building levels are high enough to keep the average population per dwelling figure stable on its own.

    those that do not live here, no matter how rich, can only speculate, they are physically incapable of 'demanding' UK property since they do not live here

    There are many that dont live here that own property here, and that number is growing. Each absent owner bounces a UK person or family out of a home.

  8. You are right I missed that, I am guilty of being so used to the U K's shambolic immigration controls I didn't even think to include it.

    The government has no plan to do anything about immigration. It wont change or get any better on its own, that is for sure.

    The first step would be either to leave the EU, or change the treaty with the EU to end free movement of persons into the UK from the EU.

    The other vital step is to set up a citizen's database, so we know who are the UK citizens, and by elimination, who are not.

    Then you can put some proper controls in place, and tax foreigners at a penal rate for owning residential land in the UK.

    It is time someone put UK citizens first. At the current rate of displacement, we are going to soon end up without further land to concrete over and have huge numbers of our citizens living in tent cities, whilst the rich from other nations enjoy our housing stock at reduced council tax on account of them being second homes.

  9. An Island state with limited resources and space to live, with no real plan to expand population centers, in fact to positively legislate to avoid doing so to accommodate that increasing population and with no tax or mechanism to prevent the purchase of it's resources by foreign agencies, at the detriment to its already over stretched inhabitants and to enrich a minority elite, is doomed to self destruction sooner rather than later.

    How can this not be obvious? :blink:

    Yes, but how come you didnt mention the absence of immigration controls?

    We desperately need a progressive land value tax, with non UK citizens taxed at a penal rate.

  10. Very amusing.

    I dont know if there is anything wrong with this though is there? All a bit of fun.

    If this lady on Ebay wants to publicity seek as an end in itself, I am not sure I have much of a problem with that either. There is a place for it, a lot of people enjoy reading about publicity seekers, and some are able to earn a living through perpetual publicity. Such is the marketplace.

  11. The very big cash cow for certain clubs, sorry franchises will be when a very small number break away and retain their own tv rights. This will make a few clubs very very rich (for example Uniteds £20m pa domestic TV share could easily reach £100m pa or so if they sold individually), it will also completely kill most of the clubs now in the premiership as they wont even have access to the crumbs off the table.

    Ironically, if that happens, it will be debt free clubs like FC United of Manchester who will survive and most likely abosrb an awful lot of disenfranchised and angry fans so the monster will be feeding its own biggest enemy (still, thats the plan :))

    I am not sure that they can do that.

    There was a case in Rugby Union a few years back, when England wanted to keep the money for TV rights at home, as it would have meant they took the lions share of the TV money. The other nations said no, the money should be equally shared amongst all the clubs in the competition. They argued it was the competition that was worth the money, not the team. England refused.

    So the other teams in the six nations decided to play without England. England had to back down.

    It would be interesting to see what would happen if the top clubs tried to pull the same stunt in football. They got away with it when the formed the premier league, garnering all the wealth for a few to the detriment of competition in football generally. Not sure that they will get away with it again. They would need to take enough teams into such a breakaway to make the competition worth following, but I cant see how they could do that. If Man Utd wanted all the money for the TV rights for their home games, would Sky or anyone else be willing to pay for those rights? Would the other clubs stand for it if Man Utd set up their own internet subscription channel? Would you want to be in a league with Man Utd if they took all the money and could buy your players if you got a team up together that could challenge them? Would it be worth watching?

    I think it unlikely. There have been attempts to form a European super league in the past. They were scuppered when one team, Liverpool, broke ranks and said they wanted nothing to do with it, in effect saying that they would rather be in a domestic league without the big English clubs than a European league with them. If Man Utd went into such a league, they may find that they have backed the wrong horse and I cant see league rules allowing them back into the football league at anywhere other than right at the bottom. Entering a European super league is just too risky.

    So I see plans to appropriate exclusive TV rights as a non-starter for Man Utd. I just cant see how individual clubs can keep all the tv rights and throw two fingers up to their competitors. It is the competition that is important, not the individual club, and anyone putting this to the test risks ruin.

  12. We shall see if the cracks have been papered over come the Greek elections in April. If the Greeks have elections, then a default IMHO will almost be a certainty. If a default happens soon after the elections and from what certain Greek politicians are saying the original deal stuck on Monday would not have any validity, thus would that trigger a CDS apocalypse for the banks?

    Mr Miyagi,

    the article you quoted suggested the apocalypse would come not from Greece via the CDS route, but from falling bond values for the other PIIGS, which are assets on the European banks balance sheets. Once Greece is allowed to go as a precedent, then the other countries will as well, and the banks dont have enough assets to cover their liabilities.

    Whether or not the CDS thing on its own is enough, well who knows, I dont know what the banks have on their books in any detail. My guess though is that the CDS thing is a big deal, and I reckon that some of the American Investment banks are nervously worried about having to pay out on them.

  13. It seemed likely,judging from the Newsnight piece, that 70% haircuts and a "Sorry chum" (or is that Chump) is probably not going to go down well?

    I dont know the exact figure, but I cant see how Greece can repay a penny of its debt given it still has a massive deficit.

    200 billion plus of losses to be shared out. No way that sort of loss can go down well.

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