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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by leicestersq

  1. If Germany gives Greece a bailout big enough for it to make Greece solvent, even for a minute, Germany wont be.
  2. I am not so sure that you really have disagreed with me. You say that if long term interest rates dont change, then the ratio of house prices to rents dont change. That doesnt contradict my position. Long term interest rates do change though. Isnt the rate over 600% in Greece? Rates in the UK are very low, and you would expect all asset prices to increase as a result. It is simple arbitrage. If the cost of borrowing is 4%, and you calculate that the return on buying a house is 10% from rental income, then someone somewhere will buy, and bid up the price of that property, until the yield from rental falls to the same sort of percentage as leaving your money in the bank.
  3. A great anecdotal TB. There is the reason for the housing crisis in one.
  4. Rents and house prices are disconnected? I thought that there was a very strong link. Use the interest rate and you can turn a capital value into an equivalent income stream. A rent will be near the value of that income stream, taking into account the costs of renting including repairs and voids and stuff.
  5. Those who called similar drops on mainland Britain have been spectacularly wrong. Maybe those in the north of the UK might have seen some drops, down south though, nary a price weakness to be seen.
  6. There has been a huge problem before the recent housing boom, with rich people buying second homes in places like Wales and Devon and Cornwall, with locals being unable to buy. I bet the problem in the UK from internationals is smaller, but it is clearly growing fast. Given that we have a serious housing crisis in the UK, or perhaps a 'land' crisis might be a better term, any second home owners from abroad is a worry. I dont see any high rates of tax being levied against such properties to alleviate the injustice of this upon the UK population.
  7. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2012/feb/22/greece-debt-relief-animation-video
  8. But did he say that he cant rule out more bailouts during this period?
  9. I think that this is unlikely. Most would say immigration is under-reported by a huge amount. People aint building sheds in gardens because building levels are high enough to keep the average population per dwelling figure stable on its own. There are many that dont live here that own property here, and that number is growing. Each absent owner bounces a UK person or family out of a home.
  10. The government has no plan to do anything about immigration. It wont change or get any better on its own, that is for sure. The first step would be either to leave the EU, or change the treaty with the EU to end free movement of persons into the UK from the EU. The other vital step is to set up a citizen's database, so we know who are the UK citizens, and by elimination, who are not. Then you can put some proper controls in place, and tax foreigners at a penal rate for owning residential land in the UK. It is time someone put UK citizens first. At the current rate of displacement, we are going to soon end up without further land to concrete over and have huge numbers of our citizens living in tent cities, whilst the rich from other nations enjoy our housing stock at reduced council tax on account of them being second homes.
  11. Yes, but how come you didnt mention the absence of immigration controls? We desperately need a progressive land value tax, with non UK citizens taxed at a penal rate.
  12. How? India is growing quite naturally, I dont see a bubble there.
  13. Lower level workers taking all the pain. Those retired people and those at the top are snaffling all the tax. Pensions and top salaries need pruning. I have a lot of sympathy with those who receive low wages from councils, many work hard and deserve a fairer wage.
  14. Is citizens advice, the CAB? If so why are they funding this, they always complain that they have no cash themselves?
  15. With our benefits system, some people are effectively paying to work.
  16. Very amusing. I dont know if there is anything wrong with this though is there? All a bit of fun. If this lady on Ebay wants to publicity seek as an end in itself, I am not sure I have much of a problem with that either. There is a place for it, a lot of people enjoy reading about publicity seekers, and some are able to earn a living through perpetual publicity. Such is the marketplace.
  17. I am not sure that they can do that. There was a case in Rugby Union a few years back, when England wanted to keep the money for TV rights at home, as it would have meant they took the lions share of the TV money. The other nations said no, the money should be equally shared amongst all the clubs in the competition. They argued it was the competition that was worth the money, not the team. England refused. So the other teams in the six nations decided to play without England. England had to back down. It would be interesting to see what would happen if the top clubs tried to pull the same stunt in football. They got away with it when the formed the premier league, garnering all the wealth for a few to the detriment of competition in football generally. Not sure that they will get away with it again. They would need to take enough teams into such a breakaway to make the competition worth following, but I cant see how they could do that. If Man Utd wanted all the money for the TV rights for their home games, would Sky or anyone else be willing to pay for those rights? Would the other clubs stand for it if Man Utd set up their own internet subscription channel? Would you want to be in a league with Man Utd if they took all the money and could buy your players if you got a team up together that could challenge them? Would it be worth watching? I think it unlikely. There have been attempts to form a European super league in the past. They were scuppered when one team, Liverpool, broke ranks and said they wanted nothing to do with it, in effect saying that they would rather be in a domestic league without the big English clubs than a European league with them. If Man Utd went into such a league, they may find that they have backed the wrong horse and I cant see league rules allowing them back into the football league at anywhere other than right at the bottom. Entering a European super league is just too risky. So I see plans to appropriate exclusive TV rights as a non-starter for Man Utd. I just cant see how individual clubs can keep all the tv rights and throw two fingers up to their competitors. It is the competition that is important, not the individual club, and anyone putting this to the test risks ruin.
  18. Havent Standard and Poors come out and said the same thing? I cant see how the ISDA could have the temerity to judge a haircut as anything other than a default event, they would just look like idiots at best. So it is all unravelling very very quickly.
  19. Where has the money gone? How did all the assets on the balance sheet get written down so much in value? The only explanation is that they were never worth that much in the first place. So why arent there any investigations into this? Can anything other than fraud explain this?
  20. Mr Miyagi, the article you quoted suggested the apocalypse would come not from Greece via the CDS route, but from falling bond values for the other PIIGS, which are assets on the European banks balance sheets. Once Greece is allowed to go as a precedent, then the other countries will as well, and the banks dont have enough assets to cover their liabilities. Whether or not the CDS thing on its own is enough, well who knows, I dont know what the banks have on their books in any detail. My guess though is that the CDS thing is a big deal, and I reckon that some of the American Investment banks are nervously worried about having to pay out on them.
  21. I dont know the exact figure, but I cant see how Greece can repay a penny of its debt given it still has a massive deficit. 200 billion plus of losses to be shared out. No way that sort of loss can go down well.
  22. No need to qualify it. The risk for the bankers has now melted away, the asset looks to be much larger than the debt outstanding. That is a good place for a banker to be.
  23. Sometimes people are criticised for not working. Well I guess you should only criticise people if they dont try and make their situation better. You cannot make that accusation here. Well done for trying I say, and good luck to her.
  24. Banks make money by lending, accepting the risk that goes with it. They have all been repaid so far and it has been a good deal for them.
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