Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum


New Members
  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Alaktronics

  • Rank
    HPC Newbie
  1. Im recleaning the barby today as yesterdays efforts were rejected by she who must be obeyed. Im sure the first cook of the season burns off all the germs and adds flavour...she is not convinced. It causes cancer 'obey' and live to see the recession unfold.
  2. I am totally in agreement that it will take a decade before you will see any kind of turn around in this market. That is what history seems to be telling us. However there is a way out for those willing to price sensibly. At any rate the guys who said fresh coffee, lick of paint are right. If you want to move out of the mess for a while you are late, but maybe not too late and the 200k maybe what you can salvage, but act fast, stop replying to these blogs and get the EA round. Drink fresh coffee for the rest of your life and you will have gained something. and I don't need a lecture about your body being a temple or some such nonsense, it is just a thousand times better than instant if you are in the habit of poisoning yourself! emoticon emiticon emiticon
  3. The part of my point you refer to is not the logic part of the argument but merely speculation on the reasons for what is observable in the market ( the dead cat bounce). I know people who have been saving to get on the ladder as you will read hear there are plenty of people who even think they will lose a foot on the ladder if they get out now. If there weren't I would not have exchanged today on the sale of my flat. People on both sides of the coin have to exist for there to be any remnants of a market. (it ain’t broke yet just heading in that direction) Anyone know the onomatopoeia for a dead cat bouncing? Presumably it is somwhere between splat and boing.
  4. As far as i understand it, the dead cat bounce is an interruption to the price of something falling off a cliff and is only such if the cat continues to fall subsequently. ie it is a rebound if the fall does not continue. Hitting a ledge on the way down depends on the market and is evidently triggered by many things. I would suggest that in the market we are referring too it is the amount of first time buyers who are saying: I don't care what I am going to lose, I have been saving for this moment for 5 years and I can finally afford to get in to the property market and a few investors with cash who are looking at the same prices or taking a long term view And why not they have to live and invest in something. However as has been written before: A few bulls a market for bull ... does not make.
  5. Try what you need too. Your situation is not desperate yet either way as articulated above. The dead cat bounced for my family (twice) There are suckers out there! (The Daily Express for a start the voice of the Nation) One auction Mews property I looked at in N. London was on for 100,000 starting price. It required complete renovation including stripping floors and roof. ie everything except the walls, which under current regs would mean insulating walls etc as well. No garden and was about ten metres wide and 3 metres deep. To make anything of it would require real architectural skill. In addition there was a problem of a possible resident established downstairs - 50K to solve that with a build not less than 150K? I just found out it went for 365,000 (I would have said in todays market that was 200,000 plus over the odds. The Express and other propaganda are your dead cat bounce.
  6. Property is not primarily an investment. That attitude is what makes buying a home such a precarious business, has landed us in crap and made people think they are rich before their time. See Europe where rental is used for flexibility and equates to interest payments (not losses) and prices do not fluctuate in the same way. ie I buy a house for the stability of my family, if I need to move for any reason I sell it and buy another. It is only speculation that drives all the rest of the market flim flam.
  7. By all means listen to FAs and anybody else, but remember they are paid for selling you products that to a large degree are responsible for this mess. The unentanglement of which is still yet to be truly felt. All markets are in a bear period and therefore hedging and selling short is the only way to make money while they are on the way down. This requires more skill than most have and is therefore results are largely smoke and mirrors. If the UK job and housing market goes the same way as Americas', which is likely, it will also have a major affect on markets and most investments.
  8. Don't worry about the stick you are getting. Everybody has there own issues. I too finally understood what a dead cat bounce is after reading this blog. I am currently selling my own flat exchanged today - fingers crossed - and have been assisting my mother selling her property. We have both seen about 25% knocked off the value from a couple of years ago. The dead cat bounce that we have experienced seems to be the market temporarily stabilising around what this website calls on its graphs the 'Trend line' which is the value of property if it increased by 2.9% per year. If you look back over time there appears to be a fluctuation on this line every time the market passes it. Carrying on that analysis there is no doubt that prices will drop significantly further for several years to come. Slowly less and less every year until it starts to turn around (anywhere from 5 to 10 years by most estimates) I understand that according to some papers in the UK prices have risen in the last couple of months, but I would ask against what values are they measuring against? The one thing nobody has been able to do is value property over that period (free fall is the expression) and there have been next to no sales. We sold ours by undercutting the esate agents valuation and now two months on (the time it takes for exchange) the market is about where we set the values (Zoopla). I am currently in South Africa - why did I not sell earlier? I blinked and missed the window. I therefore do not need to rent, but my mother who is bemoaning the fact that there is still nothing for sale does. Time and renting is the way forward, there will be a lot more for sale by the end of next year. The prices are probably over five years going to drop by what they already have done. (extrapolated from previous falls) The worst damage will be done in the next few years though and your real calculation of when to come back into the market will be how much you will lose in capital depreciation against the cost of renting during that period. With all this additional money around quantative easing you need an investment that will safeguard the value of your equity against the possibility of inflation over the medium term(1 -3 years) and I would argue that some commodity based investment (such as gold) could be part of the answer. Good luck and there is no harm in trying late or not, but you must look at realistic values if you decide you want to sell. There is plenty of information on this website to help you with that. Listening to Quest on CNN last night, he reminded the audience that if anyone tells you that interest rates are not going to go way up and there won't be inflation they are telling porkies. What you have already lost may not be as important to you as what you could lose in the future. These are all your choices.
  9. As per the previous message and specifically: the middle classes (basically all of us) will pay for this, as always. Love ‘em or hate ‘em (mostly) that is what we were invented for. Institutions can’t fail when we all go bankrupt with negative equity, no no, so there is no choice but to devalue money, let the mass pay for the elite, effectively micro payment our way out of the hole. Meanwhile someone has been eating all the pies: unprecedented profits and salaries over the last few years, and it was not our ‘poor’ pension funds by the look of their lacklustre performance. We cannot afford to sell our main asset and protect our savings, but the Forbes billionaires who have lost 18 billion don't give a monkeys, in fact they love this, that 18 bil was only on paper in the first place, just like the value of your house. Now all they can see is how cheap the world is beginning to look in comparison to the 36 billion they have left. Before hedge funds at least, this is where billionaires really made it. Why Hedge in the first place? As far as I can see it is a way of making money in a bear market. What bear market? The stock market has been in decline since 2000, the spike up to 2008 was.. well bull, if you know what I mean, long term investments in stocks and housing can not be made for some years to come. True bear market to arrive in about 7 years. Don’t believe the hype. Revision to previous post. Property markets show volatility over time and form parts of trends which have much greater certainty than stocks. Adios, payments to make, bankers to subsidise etc etc.
  10. The property market is here to stay! Which probably as you rightly point out is what we are all doing here in the first place. The quesion however is not whether to invest, but when and in what. Looking at any of the graphs on this website will inform you that, since 1975 at least, no market has dropped to the level of the 'trend' value and remained there. Which is where we are at the moment. If former fluctuations are to be considered there will be significant drops over the next two years the rate of those drops will diminish over the following 3 years, but will continue to fall. A return to the bull market is unlikely to therefore be the case for several years to come. All your investments therefore need to factor that in before suggesting anyone is going to miss any boat soon. Property is not the stock market and property markets show very little volatility. There is a stabilisation of the market which appears to occur around the 'trend' line (up and down) but this is a ledge on the slope and has not lasted long in previous drops. Turning to purchases, you have to factor in how much money you will spend on renting if you do not buy and what you might do with your equity to protect it against things like inflation if it is not tucked into a house. The planned world spending, it seems to me, is a way of devaluing both money and by inference debt. ie the pound may not devalue against the dollar and house prices may be stabilised by inflation, but your pound will be worth less tomato's. (more traditionally referred to as commodities). All this money being pumped in is therefore a slight of hand. Your house is still worth the same amount of money – if your lucky, but it is the money that is worth less. The conclusion is that for those who have to sit tight world governments are doing what they can to ensure you do not go bankrupt in an avalanche of ‘negative equity’ or unsecured debt, but it will mean that your house will be worth less bags of shopping over the longer term. Inflation will mask the devaluation of your house. Look on the bright side, it will devalue your debt too!
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.