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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by loginandtonic

  1. you mean the belief that recessions yield bargains for purchasers of commercial or res property? those who voted bullrun belief, this is not meant to be a criticism or insult if thats your belief too, but i have to admit i really dont understand even 1 % how anyone can possibly think the coming years are going to be anything other than severe belt tightening for everyone. i dont know about nominal terms but surely in real terms everything will have to be cheaper because people just wont have the money. although this is usually not a good month to sell a car, i have been astounded by both the real world used car forecourts (i visited 15+ today) and ebay sellers who are failing to achieve the prices they want for their vehicles yet 9/10 are not cutting the windscreen prices. i definitely recognised today the same old land rovers, micras, primeras, carisma, tinos, range rovers + others that have been hanging around at the same screen price for 6 to 8 weeks this is not a healthy economy, this is a delusional stalemate, one side is deluded, being this time of year its easy to say it is the sellers - but just looking at the £1.5 trillion plus the country needs to pay off surely it cannot be anything other than prozac-induced optimism to think asset values can truly appreciate in that climate unless it is a panic buyers' boom
  2. I travelled a lot of residential streets today in Essex. Almost three quarters of streets have a sprinkling of Sold boards and very few or no For Sale boards. additionally the shops i have been watching in various counties under £100K (mostly freeholds) - 30-50% sold in 2-3 weeks. some of these yielding (if the tenant stayed solvent) 6 to 9% gross. some of you will remember poster Daddybear's purchase of a house in Q2 for himself, with a claimed immediate profit of what sounded like £50K or more. but he refused to sell when i suggested that was not a profit to be taken lightly. if prices continued to rise in the past few months then he was correct. his official reasons for not selling/flipping were not to upheaval himself + his belief we were or are entering a crack-up boom or dash for assets. is that what we are now witnessing - either a crack up boom or people fearing one is coming along + buying up property or businesses/empty shops etc? please cast your vote anonymously and / or post nb i voted dont know
  3. (snipped by stillthinking) http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/5623228/the-markets-verdict-on-the-pbr.thtml Thursday, 10th December 2009 The markets' verdict on the PBR Mark Bathgate 12:30pm The press didn’t like Darling’s budget – and neither do the markets. What Darling didn’t say yesterday is that the Treasury is looking to borrow £243 billion from the City by the end of the financial year – this info was slipped out by the debt management office ( http://www.dmo.gov.uk/documentview.aspx?docName=/remit/sa091209.pdf ). Brother, can you spare a quarter of a trillion quid? The markets are not sure they can. Gilts are being hammered today - biggest single day sell off for some time - 13bps so far this morning on 10yr gilts. They now stand at 63bps above German bunds, the widest since the crisis started. .... edit hyperlink typo
  4. who's down, here you go http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091210-704796.html LONDON (Dow Jones)--Gilts sold off sharply Thursday as sovereign credit concerns weighed on the market following a Pre-Budget Report that analysts said had failed to address the growing U.K. budget deficit. Although gilts rallied initially after the Report, as a smaller than expected rise in gilt issuance was met with relief, the move has since been reversed as sovereign credit concerns have come to the fore. The 10-year gilt/bund yield spread widened to its highest level for a year, with the gilt yielding 60.5 basis points more than bunds. "The consensus is that 10-year yields should rise, but the market was fairly neutral going into the Pre-Budget Report," said Mohit Kumar, Deutsche Bank U.K. strategist. Many sovereign credit events have highlighted the risks facing the U.K., and investor sentiment will worsen, he added. Furthermore, the political nature of the Pre-Budget Report, in delaying spending cuts and tax rises, means more action will be required later, said Phil Tyson, strategist at MF Global. "Reality has sunk in and the Treasury's growth forecasts are seen as optimistic." Tyson called the selloff "overdue", adding that the end of quantitative easing "will remove the bid from the market, putting upward pressure on 10-year yields". At 1050 GMT, the March gilt futures contract was down 0.84 on the day at 116.37, after touching a low at 115.84, and the 10-year benchmark gilt was down 0.75 at 105.765, yielding 3.754%. -By Nick Andrews; Dow Jones Newswires doesn't sound like a drinks all round night at the old thamseside inn this evening does it
  5. i know, amazing times. sorry spiv old chap, he didnt, as i said yesterday + we see now today. dont lose your common sense. more reassurance looks to be necessary but will it be something they can keep their word on or will events overtake any attempt at financial repair? nobody really knows, but right now it looks rather frightening
  6. from about 38 mins in http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00p4pvr/PM_09_12_2009/ Seemingly bullish Mr Major of HSBC yesterday "the gilt market liked the pre-budget report". oh dear, how embarrassing
  7. which is kind of ironic after the robust defence of the pbr by a banker yesterday on radio 4 who said something like the pbr was exactly what the gilts market wanted to hear i said his remarks were rather surprising in the face of the reality today we see that he was being rather overly bullish
  8. if they had sense + foresight rather than a political agenda rates would be increased to 1% today and 5 % by Q3 2010, australia have been increasing but no such sense here
  9. well done peter, these people have strung their selfish spin out long enough, they have led us into dangerous waters, in another era the word treason may come to mind. about time this lot were shown the door + the uk people handed their country + control of their own destiny back to them, minus the string pulling VIs + bullsh*tters stalking what remains of their democracy
  10. some truth in that, a good sob - brown, darling, byrne, balls, balls' wife, king, cable, the electorate, gordon can beg for forgiveness + we can say "ok but you have to leave number 10 now, good lad." then maybe we can get some proper brains in to sort this mess out before it demolishes everyone's future. question is who is free of bias, vested interesteds, old pals' act ties etc? who will really put the uk first + resist selfish deviation? i can but dream. maybe cameron, maybe ukip, maybe a coalition...?
  11. if you want a laugh listen to the banker supporting the pbr on PM Radio4 via Listen Again (was at about 5.15)
  12. apparently the reason for the gilts rally was something to do with a small improvement compared to what they were expecting, however others have suggested that unless theres more news of repayment strategies to come the downgrade could happen. some wally from one of the big banks of course said everything is sound, triple a 100% assured blah blah blah i'm wearing my wife's knickers etc
  13. i have to say i have seen sold boards up today even in the less than popular streets in essex (ie york road, southend) however they may be in a chain or mere neverland offers on my watchlist a few are being reduced every week by a couple of grand, but others are showing as sold its a mad mad market, but on balance i think it will end in tears + a slump again unless db's dash for assets is the game
  14. Never trust a Labour government with your money - Osborne We've got an election manifesto - Cable cant argue with any of that, time mr brown did the decent thing + gave the keys back to the policeman outside the door.
  15. good point actually, drop them a line with that CAMEROND @ parliament.uk - although a hung wouldnt surprise me if the pre-election bribes help for hard working families keep coming, i'm thinking of asking gordon for a honda accord myself
  16. +1 probably +1 +1 i can see your point there too, but i still think the rebuilt on sand is the best summary as far as i can tell
  17. i suppose makes more sense than the car scrappage http://www.heatingandventilating.net/news/news.asp?id=6898&title=Boiler+scrappage+expected+in+Darling's+PBR+
  18. not sure about that, about 28m houses in the uk, probably a shortage of nice ones in some areas of course if everyone b*ggers off now as seems to be happening, probably going to be a major surplus of unsolds unless the prices fall, unemployed people simply cant afford to buy houses at stratospheric delusional from thin air valuations shortage? http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/property/what-housing-shortage.aspx
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