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House Price Crash Forum


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Posts posted by Scooter

  1. My problem is with inflation. If inflation does rise - as many are predicting - then surely this would have the affect of absorbing the recent price rises and reducing any nominal falls. As wages rise to match the price inflation then debts that people have racked up will be magicked away.

    I suppose one could say that wages won't rise fast enough - but lets see.

    Another issue for me is the public sector. Have you looked at the jobs pages and seen the hefty salaries on offer. Hackney Council are offering 100k + for jobs such as 'head of strategy'. Are these jobs sustainable in a downturn?

    Since the success of those sort of jobs cannot be measured that easily in commercial terms (i.e. profit & loss) they may survive a downturn. Any axe will come from central government probably, not councils firing their own...


  2. The Denial of the possibility of fading prices has faded,

    but the Fear-of-falling has not set in for most yet.  Many still believe that

    the fall will be modest, too small to make it worth the hassle to sell out and rent.

    Meantime, oil prices continue to rise, hinting at future inflation, and a possible

    need to raise rates- but surely that won't happen...

    Agreed on all of the above. We are still a minority in recognising what is happening. Virtually none of my friends in banking/stockbroking/management consultants-who perhaps should know better-agree and a couple who were bearish for the last four years or so have got bored of predicting a crash that most people think will never happen and now say price stagnation but no falls at best. Very dull.


  3. Please click on link below to fill in the latest propertyfinder survey. 

    The results of this survey are widely quoted in the UK media and therefore influence housing market confidence.  As is typical, the survey is hosted by a website with a vested interest and is visited almost entirely by house buyers who expect further price rises.

    Take action to readdress the bias in reporting by completing the survey:


    Thanks to everyone who completed the last survey, hopefully the will make an impact. :rolleyes: Keep it up!


  4. I'm all in favour of immigration/emmigration and if you decide to look for your perfect life in another country I hope you find it. I have lived in a number of other countries and it is a great experience, so I recommend it. I completely agree that the UK has plently of bad sides especially transport which is a joke. 

    I just hate it when people blame immigrants for their probelms when immigrants are the ones with the hardest lives of all - the worst jobs, education, english language skills etc.

    Not all immigrants bring equal benefits. More Ugandan Hindus and HK Chinese for example would have been nice as they are/were generally educated, entrepreneurial and interested in a reasonable level of integration. Other groups we could do without altogether...

  5. Holland. Probably on a par with us tax wise, but infinitely more civilised, and much much better housing.

    In Holland a tenant is respected, and gets good service, spacious apartments and reasonable landlords. In return the tenants do not give landlords hassle. Their system is much better than the us vs them culture here.

    There is plentiful housing to buy at reasonable cost. Owning a home is not the obsession it is here.

    That's a good start, and somewhat offsets the dullness of the Dutch countryside.


    Big Islamic immigration/integration problems now though and getting worse esepecially Rotterdam and Amsterdam...

  6. actually its fraud.

    you are lying about your situation to borrow a huge amount of money.. A HUGE AMOUNT

    To the letter of the law "serious fraud" like this could see you in prison for a decade..

    also if you are aware of someone doing this and you don't report it.. you are complicit to a fraud.

    again illegal. large fine and possible prison sentance.

    what do people think they are doing..  a cheeky smile and a slap on the back from the copper..

    A solicitor, if convicted, could not practice again.

    an accountant..

    This is fraud..

    yes it is naughty.

    Fraud is a general term but the offences which are colloquially referred to as fraud are obtaining goods/services/pecuniary advantage by deception per the Theft Act 1968, 1978 and later amendments in 1996.


  7. In a word, Yes. 

    I feel quite sorry for BA in this, its the other company that are running a loss, and BA are made out to be the bad guys in this.  Dont know why they just dont go back and do their own catering; bet first class food standards would increase tenfold.

    I think Gate Gourmet was part of BA until it was spun off and then contracted back immediately to reduce costs to BA (liek a sale and leaseback of property). This was used as justification for the secondary strike as the GG employees were formally BA employees.

  8. ABCD President Kris Hill commented, "This year we anticipate that a considerable number of potential buyers will be on holiday in the latter part of July and throughout August. This may mean a slow down in interest in properties for this period but, as soon as the holiday period is over, interest in the property market will pick up."

    Denying that he used a crystall ball to formulate his predictions Chris (14)added, "When you've been in the business as long as I have you start to develop an instinct for these things."

    Petey Leeds Queen - the ABCD CEO - is maintaining his very low profile and is allowing the new president to come up with the wisecracks.

    Unlike last year when no one went on holiday in July or August! :)

  9. :)  We have metntioned  on here before how we would know Joe Public would

          accept that  house prices were dropping when it was mentioned in the

          mainstream media - especially Soap Operas.  Well it was last night.

        In EMMERDALE Alan Turner is trying to sell his home conversation went

        something like this:

    ALAN TURNER : Not sure what is happening cannot sell the place, have not had 

                          anyone round for ages.

    DOCTOR:      Well it is a BUYERS MARKET at the moment from what i hear.

    ALAN TURNER : Yes, i know ESTATE AGENT has already asked me to drop the

                        price, which I am going to do - hopefully that will have an effect.

    I could not believe it, i nearly choked on my dinner. :D  :D

    Scarey if this has more influence on people than TV news or the press...

  10. Good point. But fixing the survey proves how worthless they are. And if it makes one more person think again, then it does have a point.

    I'm not doing this because I'm a sad, empty git (or am I...?). Just as something to do as I sit here, listening to the radio.

    Yep, it might change someone's opinion I guess, which would be a good thing. I am a bit bored of being virtually the only person I know (HPC.co.uk not included obviously)who thinks house prices might drop significantly.


  11. Article in todays Daily Mail about the cricketer Andrew Flintoff cannot sell country cottage.  The article points out that he originally put it on the market for £795,000 then reduced it £20k to £775,000.  It also mentions that he purchased it in Jan 04 for £575,000.  It then goes on to say he is 'stumped' as to why it won't sell.  I mean it's hardly unreasonable to expect a return of £220,000 in 20 monthhs.  :lol:

    Surely you weren't expecting financial genius from a cricketer?

  12. we could stop it... here and now..

    if it was stopped it would remove the affordability of current house prices.

    you want a crash?

    it is now possible.

    the government may not want it stopped.

    but they also don't want a crash and will do all they can to avoid it.

    don't give them the time..

    If all of us here reported this crime and just supplied a link then the weight may force the hands of those in power..

    Remember, this is illegal and the goverment is still governed by their own laws.

    and if those making the decision not to investigate own a property then they are complicit to a fraud that they are profiting from.

    They are breaking the law.

    this is the power of the crash in our hands.. could we please use the power..

    you are aware of the fraud now. although you are not profiting from it, you are guilty of being complicit.

    you are breaking the law in not getting exactly what you claim to want.

    I know of no cases personally, although I have read about lying mortgage applicants, enough to believe it happens a lot. As a cynic, if the figures became embarrassing then the government would change the basis of monitoring, smear the monitors or otherwise bury them.


  13. Okay.

    I have discussed that the economy can't support house prices and the burden of debt sucking away at the rest of the countries financies.

    also that the debt burden is crippling the people, but that the increased cost of homes have been allowed by the debt bubble..

    but how are people affording the loans..?

    Surely sensible borrowing limits would also have capped prices...? at the end of the day a £190,000 flat would be out of reach to all but the fantastically well paid..

    over £54,000 if 3.5 times the salary was all that was available.

    so what happened..?

    Read this article


    figures released for 2004 showed that !/3rd of all mortage lending was "income non verified" and 1/5 of all mortgage debt had never had income verified against the borrowing.

    So, we are all competing in a market where there is no cap on the amount you can borrow.

    Should this be stopped?

    report it on this site.


    after all this fraud has been reported to have allowed the boom to continue for the last three years..

    with £600,000,000,000 more overal debt in this time it is likely that this could be called serious.

    have it stopped and protect those who may be about to make a massive mistake.

    the crash now seems innevitable. some are not aware of this.

    Short term sadly the government may not want it stopped because of the effects on retailers, feelgood factor etc...


  14. People noramlly are optimistic

    it will only be when experience is pointing to reality that they will become more pessimistic.

    i  wonder what % would have expected price falls in aug 2004?

    Are people really optimistic and can we be that broad brush about the entire population? I tend to think people-including many economists, bankers et al-simply assume that things will continue in the way they have in recent months or years (be it up or down) but I suppose everyone is different potentially.


  15. Dear Dog,

    First off, I agree with you about the lawyers! Sorry Scooter! :D

    If any of you have read the selfish gene, in a chapter on game theory Dawkins cites studies into the tacit collusion that occurs between lawyers who are representing two clients on either side of a legal issue (whether it be a house purchase, a custody settlement, a divorce...anything) - the lawyers were shown to work together (not explicitly) to string out proceedings and extract as much cash from the helpless clients. Lawyers are also scummy, they have too much power and are paid way too much...primarily I think because they operate very tightly as a professional body that really looks out for itself. If only the professional bodies for engineers had that kind of clout!

    Also, where there are bankers, you will find lawyers not far behind!

    Scooter first a barrister then underwriter...you must be bloody minted!

    As for your statement:

    "FRP is an essential ingredient required to further the intesrests of any modern sucessful capitalist nation, via a levereging process without which we would surely wallow in stagnation."

    Why is the exclusive magic creation of wealth_for_no_effort for one exclusive section of society an essential ingredient for a successful capitalist nation? If magic_money creation is so necessary, why not let everyone do it - let everyjoe have a go at creating money that does not exist through lending? NO.

    If I want to borrow for a business in an economy where FRB is abolished, I will be able to go to a bank that is holding the savings of many clients and looking for good investment opportunities to earn a good return on REAL wealth creation. Because the bank cannot just invent the money to lend me they are more likely to be more careful with the money of their clients - consequently you are right, I will probably have to impress them with my business model more...because they will be more careful and only evaluate and fund the best opportunities. If they consider my proposal to be very risky they will up the interest rate on the money lent...nothing wrong there as I can see.

    What do we have at the moment? An FRB system where there is so much bloody magic_money sloshing around that the banks don't give a flying rats ar5e who they lend to, nor how much...result? A massive house price bubble and a f**ked economy based on the never-never. Doesn't look like "an essential ingredient required to further the intesrests of any modern sucessful capitalist nation" to me.

    Doing alright, thanks very much! The Bar was a long time ago (about 1988) and very brief but enough time to learn some insurance and shipping law and change professions.


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