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Everything posted by Scooter

  1. .and many of them do have riots and unrest over immigration. France? Holland? Models of racial harmony...
  2. He lectures/researches at a couple of London Uni colleges (you will know them as there are only a couple of places but I would prefer not to specify.)
  3. My partner is an astrph-thingy so it came to mind.
  4. ...but in return for our most qualified people leaving we get hundreds of thousands of uneducated immigrants from Africa and the Sub-Continent and yes Eastern Europe (yes I know not all are uneducated but the service industry and cosntruction is not thriving on the masses of cheap brain surgeons and astrophysicists coming to live here.) s.
  5. yeah, I noticed the BBC always has to have a couple of Muslim threads going, not to mention a regular "How evil is Israel" one every week or so... S.
  6. Just because NU up their rates, it does not mean others necessarily will, even though they should if claims exceed premium and investment income. Most motor insurers are obsessed with market share and premium volume so they will happily steal NU customers who shop around. There is lots of competition. S.
  7. Have you been to Oldham? It really is the a_rse end of Manchester and the world for that matter. Jobs and racial harmony are not that common. Who would willingly live there never mind pay extortionate prices for the priveledge? S.
  8. Certainly no point in the UN IMHO. "Scum" in respect of Sledgehead is totally justified.
  9. Israel never signed any non-proliferation treaty and has broken nothing. However the far more fundamental point (to me at least) is that Israel is surrounded by countries that woudl like to see it disappear, unlike any other place in the world, but would never attack with nuclear weapons unless its existence was at risk. Iran, to listen to its leaders, would like to see Israel and potentially the US wiped off the map. I was not joking about the Mahdi-Ahmanidejad possibly wants to bring about the apocalpyse so that the mythical Shia leader will return. This is as dangerous as the Chrsitian end of days/Armageddon nonsense except no Christians are actually aiming to speed it up a little (I know you are tempted but please don't tell me Bush wants Armageddon-leave that ****** for tacoma or Mr Blek.) S. That gave me a laugh-you are contemptuous of anyone differing from your view (be it houses, stock markets or the Middle East.) Was that "inclusivity" bit written with a straight face? Scum.
  10. Only 7 out of 22 said property was overvalued? 70% think its about right then? Barking...
  11. If the difference between a democracy routinely threatened with destruction by its neighbours and an apocalyptic theocracy is not obvious to you, there is no point in an answer. Apparently the Madhi is coming back dumbfeck-just ask Ahmeninejad. S.
  12. You are welcome. It made quite good reading on The Times website first thing this morning.
  13. Why will no one actually write this stuff (bubble popping) about the Uk market in its own right? :angry:
  14. Analysis The Times August 29, 2006 Housing bubble is finally at bursting point American View with Gerard Baker THE thing with bubbles, to paraphrase Joni Mitchell, is that you don’t really know you’ve got one till it’s gone. When the air is expanding inside a speculative balloon, stretching the film of credibility that contains it to an ever-more improbable thinness, you can always find someone to explain why this time it’s different — why technological/demographic/astrological factors justify valuations today that have always proved historically unsupportable. Until the bubble actually starts to deflate or burst, there’s just enough doubt about whether prices really will revert to their historical mean to keep us all guessing. Even the most convinced sceptic can never say with any certainty when a bubble will collapse, and so the science of identifying bubbles is an inherently retrospective activity. But it looks now as though we can say with some confidence that the long American housing bubble is over. To the anecdotal evidence accumulating over the past year — estate agents cancelling holidays in the South Pacific, the houseowner around the corner who is said to have dropped her asking price three times — we now have some firm and depressingly clear data. Last week we learnt that existing home sales in July were 11 per cent below last year’s levels. Within a couple of days, the next report said that new home sales had fallen in the same month by 21 per cent from a year earlier. Just a week before that, it was reported that housing starts fell 13 per cent from a year earlier. If the housing market really is in retreat, the two important questions are: how far will it fall, and how much damage will it do to the US and, by extension, the world economy? It is not an exaggeration to say that the buoyant US economy has been kept afloat in the past five years by its housing sector. The first and most obvious effect has been the direct contribution a booming real estate market has had on employment and income. If you dissect the official employment data over the past five years, and lump all the housing-related stuff together — construction, estate agents, mortgage broking, home improvement, housing insurance investment — you get some staggering numbers. By some estimates all this housing activity has accounted for more than 40 per cent of all the jobs created in the US since 2001. Now, all these new jobs are not going to disappear in a housing slump. But even if residential real estate activity falls by half in the next year or two it will represent a sizeable blow to the labour market that could, if there is nothing else to take up the slack, push unemployment significantly higher, and income somewhat lower. The much bigger effect of a housing slump, however, is likely to be on household balance sheets. According to the Federal Reserve’s latest figures, the total amount of residential housing wealth in the US just about doubled between 1999 and the first quarter of 2006 — up from $10.4 trillion (£5,500 billion) to $20.4 trillion. Thanks to a highly efficient housing finance market, Americans have been withdrawing a significant part of this wealth to finance current spending. Exactly how much they have withdrawn is hard to gauge, but the wealth effect of housing on spending has been observed to be substantially larger than traditional estimates of the wealth effect of equities, which is about 1.5 per cent. If the right figure for housing is 3 per cent, that suggests over $300 billion has been taken out in the past six years, about $50 billion a year, or an average of about 0.4 per cent of US GDP. This seems a conservative estimate, as some economists put the wealth effect much higher. However, people do not join a wave of selling when prices fall: most simply sit tight. Furthermore, the US market is a vast, diversified one, nothing like as dominated by a single, frothy urban market in the way the UK is affected by London. Prices nationwide have in fact never fallen in any year in the last half century. But even if prices stay flat on aggregate over the next few years, that still suggests a substantial hit to GDP and, given the run-up in prices in the past five years, the chances of an outright, first-ever decline in prices must be substantial. The other large effect of a housing slump might be considered a non-linear one: the impact on financial conditions of the millions of Americans who will default on mortgage payments as prices flatten, interest rates rise and the economy stalls. In previous periods of weakness in property markets there have been huge institutional collapses. The savings and loans debacle of the early 1990s is the most recent example. Today, again thanks to increased financial efficiency, the risk of such a massacre seems smaller. The securitisation of the nation’s mortgage market has spread the geographical and sectoral risks to the broader economy. But there will still be many financial institutions with significantly impaired balance sheets as the value of their mortgage-backed securities declines sharply over the next year. All in all, even on the most optimistic assumptions, post-bubble conditions in the housing market would be highly uncomfortable for America and could seriously sap demand in the world. Of course, that is what the pessimists said about the collapse of the tech bubble in 2000. But back then, like a guardian angel, along came the housing boom just in time. Is there anything that might do the same for the US in the next few years? There’s not much room for fiscal support. Unfortunately, and though interest rates have edged lower in the past few weeks, inflation pressures may limit the potential for support there. A further decline in oil prices would be useful, but can hardly be counted on. Which may leave the US in the unaccustomed position of hoping that the rest of the world can come to its rescue with a period of really strong demand growth. Who would bet the house on that?
  15. Very, very creepy. If it is a Labour constituency with a potentially hostile Muslim population (i.e. hostile to Labour policies) Jack Straw, who is evry vulnerable, and others will sell the UK down the river to try to protect their seats. S.
  16. The NuLab monkey pops up again to defend its masters!
  17. I tend to agree with all of that. Jews are not about to blow themselves up on a Manchester train or bus. Every Jewish service in a synagogue in the UK includes a prayer for the safety and wisdom of the Royal Family and government. This is traditional everywhere-I even saw an old US prayerbook that had a prayer for the Confederacy but the point is that submission to and support-in the sense of not attacking or trying to overthrow it even if you happen to disagree with specific policies-the government of the host country is absolute. S.
  18. The use of faked or manipulated targets and a self-congratulatory pat on the back for achieving them-and attacks on anyone who questions their veracity- is similar, not the overall picture.
  19. It will still take many months to feed through. I am just seeing virtually no sales in my bit of Nth London i.e. market freezing up.
  20. The Times August 25, 2006 Public view of inflation fuels fear of a rate rise By Gary Duncan, Economics Editor STRONG evidence that soaring fuel and utility bills are leading households to expect higher inflation in the future has increased the threat of another imminent rise in interest rates. Expectations of future levels of inflation among the public have leapt over the past month, climbing back to highs set earlier this year, an influential poll from Citigroup revealed yesterday. The average level of inflation expected by consumers in the coming year jumped in August to 2.5 per cent, from 2.1 per cent in July, Citgroup’s survey said. The research also showed that the proportion of people expecting inflation to be below the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target in the year ahead fell this month to just 36 per cent, from 45 per cent in July. At the same time. the proportion of people who think that inflation will exceed 4 per cent has soared to a fifth, from 15 per cent in July. The surge in so-called inflation expectations will set alarm bells ringing again at the Bank. The Governor of the Bank, Mervyn King, and members of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) have emphasised their view that it is crucial that such a trend does not develop as a result of soaring energy costs. The Bank’s fear is that if people and companies come to predict that prices will rise far faster than the Bank’s 2 per cent target, this will in turn stoke-up pay demands, lead to higher wage deals, and in turn prompt companies to raise their prices further. This could trigger a “wage-price spiral” that would entrench rising inflation in the economy. With the MPC attaching great weight to ensuring that people believe that its inflation target will be met, economists have sounded warnings that any sign of increased inflation expectations may well be met by further increases in interest rates to reinforce the target’s credibility. Anxiety at the Bank over the risk that this is now happening will be fuelled by other findings in the Citigroup poll. It showed that average expectations of future inflation over the longer term also leapt this month, to 3.6 per cent, from 3.3 per cent in July. Four times as many people expect long-term inflation to be above the 2 per cent target than expect it to be below this level. Almost half of those polled think that long-term inflation will exceed 4 per cent. Michael Saunders, the chief UK economist for Citigroup, said: “These readings are bound to worry the MPC. If they believe that inflation expectations are being destabilised . . . they will see a greater need to hike rates further, perhaps significantly, to demonstrate their commitment to the inflation target.”
  21. Looks like the puerile insults are coming from you. Should we be thanking you for NuLab thought control (not to mention speech and press/media censorship and BBC brainwashing that we are forced to pay for)?
  22. "Negotiation" has worked very well for the Iranians. They keep turning down offers of incentives to stop enriching and researching and in return receive far better offers and more time. This is pure appeasement by the UN/EU 1936 style. But it will come to an end eventually. I do not see a peaceful conclusion to this all. S.
  23. Does threatening to wipe Israel off the map count (I know it is not technically invasion but it is a massively aggressive aim/intention outside their own borders)? Oh no, just another neocon fantasy, he was misquoted obviously...if everyone is as complacent as you about Iran and its nuclear programme, including missiles that can hit western Europe, we will all be dead sooner or later. Bizarre what some people believe but it is a free country (unlike Iran.) S.
  24. ...like in Iran or Saudi but not in overwhelmingly secular Israel.
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