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House Price Crash Forum


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About gimble

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  1. A very rough calculation to divide the current total welfare spend (including pensions) of £200 billion amongst the 70 million UK population for a universal CI comes in at about £3000 per head. I appreciate that because the CI would be taxed along with any other income then it could be a fair bit higher than this, and maybe children would get a smaller CI (or their parents' CI would be increased by some lower amount) I still can't see an affordable CI being anywhere near high enough to be a real welfare safety net... many people would be on the street and starving pretty soon. Happy to be shown wrong, it's an interesting subject I'm sure someone has done real sums!
  2. On reflection, here's what I'd do: get out of there ASAP and settle into your new place before the baby arrives. Do it on your own timetable, not the landlord's or the court's, surely that will be less stressful. Otherwise you'll be moving house and possibly dealing with a court case, an unreasonable landlord and hostile neighbours at the same time as having a newborn and that will be far from ideal.
  3. Not sure of the legality but it might be wise to change the locks if the LL has malicious intent against you and your wife. If he's already being unreasonable he may get worse if you don't comply with the eviction notice.
  4. London's population is still rising and fast, so if underhoused people in their 30s and 40s are throwing in the towel and leaving there are even more young people arriving to take their places.
  5. It's actually the law in some Continental countries that price / m2 is in the advertising. Certainly in France. Wouldn't happen here - the building lobby must absolutely be terrified of the idea.
  6. London's population is growing rapidly: http://blogs.r.ftdata.co.uk/ftdata/files/2013/07/London-population2.jpg
  7. London, as an economic region, is one of the only areas in the whole of Europe that is growing strongly and creating jobs = big and growing pressure on housing. Why exactly London is doing well is hotly debated, of course. As a trading centre is it the beneficiary of continuing globalisation, is it the QE money, the bailouts for the finance industries, or the lucky recipient of disproportionate government spending on infrastructure? In the last 20 years there have been many changes - crime has fallen greatly, lots of fancy restaurants have opened, the city is cleaner, transport is better - these changes have attracted the global rich to the city when before they were more inclined to live in mansions in the countryside.
  8. The person living in the house uses The person living in the house (the tenant) uses council services and is able to vote in council elections so it's logical that they pay the council tax. The tenant, however, has no power to exercise over the letting agent, or any choice in who the letting agent is. The letting agent is employed by the landlord and works exclusively for the interests of the landlord. It is quite different to council tax.
  9. It would have to be some sort of 'black swan' event, an external shock to the market unforseen by most. Candidates might be a conflict with Russia, implosion and depression in China causing a new credit crunch or (my favourite) a nasty run on the pound and spike in interest rates because of the UK's huge current account deficit. All quite improbable at the moment, but that's the nature of 'black swans'. Doesn't mean it won't happen. Anyone wanting to buy now is forced to gamble one way or another thanks to crazy low mortgage and savings rates. Take on a massive mortgage to buy and you risk getting pummeled if a crash happens, stay renting and saving and risk getting pummeled if house prices keep inflating. Hobson's choice.
  10. Here in the UK we don't really save enough, that's why our current account deficit is so massive - it's a global surplus of savings which washes over us anyway. The London housing market is a case in point - Chinese and Malaysian punters apparently have the means to buy flats in London where actual Londoners don't. It's all those excess Asian savings making there way here one way or another.
  11. You're a brave man coming on here and admitting that you've bought a house with a big mortgage! There's a certain circularity to your argument in that those with inherited wealth (through housing) only have large monetary wealth because someone, somewhere, with real money derived from productive activity (either saved money or borrowed money to be paid for through an income) is paying a lot of money for that house. It has to be that way. Imagine a country with fine houses but where nobody has a job - the people still have real 'wealth' because they live in nice houses but in money terms they have nothing. Taking my analogy further - in such a country someone might turn up who does have a high paying job but who has to live in a tent because there are no empty houses - if one person then wants to sell their house to him he's still screwed because the seller can push the price up to the maximum that he's prepared to pay as he has no other choice. It's either live in a tent or pay top dollar for the house. If he ends up paying 700K for that house, all the other people in the country with no jobs can say - ooh., we're rich our house is worth 700 grand. That's an exaggerated version of the housing market in SE England at the moment, IMHO. But ... if TWO people want to sell their house to him, then it's very different. Now he can get a house for the minimum that either of the two sellers would accept. He gets a house for 100K and suddenly all the people in that country find that their houses are 'worth' 100 grand.
  12. I don't disagree but many people believe they will make big capital gains and in London over the last few years they certainly have. Someone else pointed out the advantage that it makes you a chain free buyer too which is a big deal these days. It's ALL down to low interest rates. If rates were to rise just a bit then this particular game is over very quickly.
  13. I know several people who, when buying a new place, have kept their old home as a BTL. I think this is really common - the banks seem to encourage it. That must have a lot to do with this lack of supply problem. In 2007 there were about 220,000 houses built. Last year was it about 100,000? That's also taking 10,000 out of the supply numbers every month. Pretty depressing.
  14. About this time last year the Fed announced intention to taper their bond purchases. US 10 year treasury yeilds subsequently rose 1.5%. Gilt yeilds also rose almost exactly the same amount over the same period - the UK economy (and its interest rate) is a cork bobbing in the ocean. That said, there is deflation showing up everywhere now so I don't think you're wrong saying that rates won't rise. That is unless our humungous 5% current account deficit eventually spooks our creditors and there's a run on the pound. Some economists in the press are saying this is a genuine risk.
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