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House Price Crash Forum


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About tpbeta

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  1. They don't perform as well as the physical assets or the ETFs that track the physical assets.
  2. Yes I can see that. I have mechanisms in place to short PMs rather than sell physical. Much quicker and more economic if a crash is imminent. I suppose it depends whether you consider short term hedging to be trading. I suppose it is, technically.
  3. Well yes but it's a bit dumb. If you really think a PM is going down in value why would you hang onto half your holding anyway. Either you don't care about the fiat value of your stack (which I've always thought was completely weird but that's just me) or you do.
  4. There are two possible strategies with precious metals. (1) Buy and hold. That means you ignore fluctuations in a religious belief that the PMs will ultimately trend higher. You are a stacker. (2) Trade. You ditch when the market looks weak and buy when the market looks strong. Basically when Ben Bernanke is printing money, you buy. If he looks like he might stop, or postpone, sell. Both work (until they don't) and both are consistent with the current downtrend. You have to decide which you are.
  5. If by "It" you mean government stimulus programmes then yes, for a while. If you mean the money printed by the Bank of England, then no. The OP was talkng about the latter I think.
  6. Actually I think he's right. The commodity price jump and UK inflation (which is the same thing) was caused by the printing of dollars, not pounds. Virtually none of the British QE money ever made it out of the FTSE and the London housing market.
  7. Possibly - but I reckon it's a sentiment driven market, so waiting till the timing is clear makes sense. It'll keep dropping till it starts rising. Also (1) QE3 has to last until the November 2012 elections so they can't kick it off too early. And (2) They need commodities to correct hard before they hit go on QE3 - in order to to moderate the effects of inflation. Do you really want to second guess that process? There's a lot of blown up silver traders who tried that one last month.
  8. I'm not. I'm relying on QE2 running out of steam, leading to a commodities correction and a dollar bottom. QE3 will be along soon though.
  9. Both are likely to correct over the summer before going higher again. Wait a bit.
  10. http://tfmetalsreport.blogspot.com This guy has a very good track record for predicting the silver market. He's advising to buy at $39 at the moment. Personally I wouldn't put more into precious metals until it's clear whether US Quantitative Easing will pause or not. You want to target the big corrections.
  11. What the Japanese had was very low inflation and very low interest rates. For international reasons, we get high inflation and low interest rates. High inflation acts in exactly the same way as high interest rates though in terms of putting households underwater. That's to say nothing of the impact of a double dip recession and the possibility that the BoE will also raise interest rates. Japan was a good comparison for a while but I don't think it is anymore.
  12. I thought the same as you for a long time, but in the end I reckon we can't do a Japan. Japan was until recently the world's second biggest economy - an astonishing accomplishment given it's size, and with an extraordinary level of household savings to offset it's public debt. The kind of stimulus programmes they were able to juggle for a decade, we can manage for only a couple. And we live in inflationary times in a way they did not in the 1990's. If you can protect your nest egg from inflation, you'll get your house price crash.
  13. How hard is it to get? If interest rates go up to nomal, there will be a massive house price crash followed by a recession that will make the 1980's look a like a walk in the park. If they don't there will be some inflation. So interest rates will not go up by very much, if at all.
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