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House Price Crash Forum

letitcomedown

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About letitcomedown

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  1. Prices do seem to be going up slightly, but only in the places favoured by the local market (newish, town properties with employment) - probably due to the new laws on tax relief. Prices of Brit favoured old country homes seem to be dropping like a stone as far as I can tell.
  2. "all other things being equal" - assuming continued immigration and no mass emigration following a recession/depression - there will be about 150 - 200k extra households formed by this time next year. e.g. http://www.migrationwatch.org/briefingpape..._7_nolimits.asp
  3. All the analysis ignores the posibility of an resurgence of BTL. BTL as a *business loan* is remarkable safe from the banks point of view - rental is guaranteed and security is very good compared to other businesses. If house sales decline and buyers stay away, rental demand WILL go up, all other things being equal. IRs going down will improve the BTL yield and reduce the attractiveness of savings accounts. A 1 point decrease in IRs and a 15% increase in rental prices would make BTLs make a whole lot more sense and stop any crash dead in its tracks.
  4. Yeah, I bought last month after about 5 years as a bear. I still believe there *should* be at least a 25% drop coming very soon - but I am no longer even 80% certain after the BOEs intervention in the NR scandal, and the rate cuts in the US. The alternative scenario - excluding pathological cases like Leeds and Manchester - are: - Slowdown, rates lowered agressively, pound left to drop, inflation targets raised (explicitly or implicitly) to burn off debts - Credit crunch denies house purchases to those with small deposits - Population continues to increase - New housing needs the
  5. I spoke to guy who owns a brokerage arranging filling up the return leg of household removal vans to and from Europe. This was in April. 25% of those going to Spain came back full, 10% to France and 1% to Italy. Which equates to 1/4 coming back to the UK from Spain. High but not very high.
  6. Different angle: OP, OTE of 75k but what are you *actually* earning right now? Last year? Lot of jobs set the target higher for obvious reasons, what you will actually earn could be much lower and/or your job could be at risk if you don't.
  7. How much did it cost your estate agent to tell you that? Big fat 0. Not true in neighboring Maidenhead, which has pretty much mirrored Wokingham. I know of someone who bought in 91 after the peak for 92k and sold in 97 or 98) (after the trough) for 72k. Can't remember the figures but the paper value of my Dad's house in Maidenhead went down by about 40% between '88 and 94. Council house prices were trashed too. I suspect some of the prestigue properties riverside held their value better.
  8. Market moving pretty fast here again, in one inland town we look at, pretty much anything reasonable has sold in the last two or three weeks. This is from EUR 70K properties to EUR 500k+. However on the coast (Narbonne) still a fair number of properties for sale but nowhere near as many as a month ago last time we were there.
  9. It's half term in UK, flight down to Toulouse yesterday was totally crammed (probably expected anyway). New line from Liverpool->Carcasssone is now open, Nottingham opening next month. Tour de France arriving in Carcassonne 14th July for the traditional big fireworks over the old cite. Yet another book about the area (Labyrinthe) on the best seller list and on Richard and Judy's book club. Lots of people looking in estate agents window in one of the two nearest towns. Prices of some places that were on the market for 3-4 months have actually gone UP e.g. farmhouse that is most similar to
  10. Thanks Peter, Update from further inland. Kind of mixed. We're been looking to buy another property down here close to a town in the high valley of the aude, and finding it tough even as "rich" foreigners. Anything sound, reasonably priced in a decent location is selling before we even get to see it, and there are some crazy prices the likes of which I've never seen before about - 440 k EURO for a 3 bed villa??? Madness. Lots of moneyed posh English people are lurking around the towns and lots of people are buying up property to develop. But... I've also seen some reductions in one esta
  11. I'd recommend anyone to read "The Structure of Scientific Revolutions" by Thomas Kuhn who created the phrase "paradigm shift" - it describes why and how a whole community of academics refuse to accept new theories or facts which don't fit into their world view (paradigm). I was lucky enough to be taught by one the world's greatest living geologists who told me first hand how this happened when plate techtonics started to become accepted in the '60s (the idea dates back to the '20s BTW). All the students were convinced this was a real thing, all the professors thought it was nonsense, and tho
  12. Personally owning a period property I have found *some* surveyors don't put things into perspective. For some serious things, they ignore completely (like even looking at the roof from inside) or internal support where the beams are covered or hidden. Other things (damp/movement/old woodworm) they jump up and down and refer to experts despite pretty much every property of the same age suffering from the same issues. The solutions suggested are pretty bizarre as well, I paid good money for a chemical DPC in my old house on the basis of a surveyors advice but I'm pretty sure that was money wa
  13. Personally I'm in a good state but not bulletproof so still worried. What really worries me is how many people don't have mortgage insurance this time around who previously were covered by social security? Also just noticed the 100K limit... "Under Department of Social Security rules, homeowners who bought their property after 1st October 1995 have to wait nine months before they receive help with their mortgage interest payments from the State. And, even then, they must be in receipt of Income Support or the JobSeeker's Allowance, so their savings must not exceed £8,000. And benefits onl
  14. It's an odd place to comment on. I used to go through every day on the bus. Busy riverside road, couple of rough-ish council estates, right under the heathrow flight path, Elton John in the posh bits (hugh country estates, country pubs), students a gogo (Royal Holloway in nextdoor Englefield Green). I don't think overall you can comment, it depends on the exact street.
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