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House Price Crash Forum


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About Tricksy

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  1. Thank you for taking the time to respond Uncle_Kenny, but I'm interested in examining the opportunities for profiting from the correction process itself. Shorting BDEV, BVS, FOXT, SVS, ZPLA, BKG etc is the obvious route in theory but I suspect is challenging to structure and execute efficiently. I'm interested in exploring this, and also in generating some lateral thinking on other ways to capitalise.
  2. The mechanics of house price inflation have been well examined by this forum over the years. Opinions have been expressed as to the magnitude, timing and duration of the inevitable correction. Huge energy has been devoted elsewhere (118, MSE etc) as to how to "play" the inflationary phase, and there are many who have prospered from this. But I can find little discussion as to how savvy individuals can "play" the deflationary phase / correction for financial gain, and I would welcome an examination of the available options. I guess the central question is this: What are the practical ways to short residential house prices in the UK? Here are some starter thoughts for consideration. At this point I will present them without discussion in the hope of starting a robust exchange... 1. Short the equity of house-builders 2. Short the equity of banks with high exposure to UK residential property 3. Short the equity of estate agents 4. Short the equity of any publicly traded funds that have material exposure to UK residential property 5. Own the equity of ancillary services businesses (insolvency practitioners?) that may benefit from the correction process 6. Spread-betting on residential house prices (not sure if this is still offered or not) No apology is offered for the cold and cynical nature of this discussion. A group of cold-hearted individuals have benefitted cynically by exploiting the inflationary phase. Perhaps a different group can benefit in the next phase...? Over to you...
  3. This is an interesting idea. I'm sure it (or some variant) was considered at the time. My immediate observations: NR had about £20bn of retail deposits. Putting up 10% to cover that would have required £2bn. Isn't this about what the bailout cost anyway? NR had a particularly low level of retail deposit funding. Other banks have far greater deposit bases. Possibly a difficult precedent to set. Don't think it would have worked, or could work in other cases.
  4. That's not how they do it. Don't pay too much attention to the one-eyed men of the HPC kingdom! How is the HPI calculated? The HPI is calculated by using Land Registry's own 'Price Paid Dataset'. This is a record of all residential property transactions made in England and Wales since January 1995. At present it contains details on over 16 million sales. Of these, over six million are identifiable matched pairs, providing the basis for the repeat-sales regression analysis used to compile the index. This technique of quality adjustment ensures an 'apples to apples' comparison between properties. The HPI is a repeat sales regression (RSR) index, measuring average price changes in repeat sales on the same properties, ensuring a like for like comparison. This means that price changes on a flat in Mayfair are not compared to those on a flat in the Old Kent Road. The statistical computation of the HPI is performed by Calnea Analytics Limited. Full details of methodology, a discussion of technical questions and a comparison with other index creation methods can be found by visiting www.calnea.com
  5. No, you are not forced to buy government bonds. Where the money is invested depends upon the nature of the particular scheme adopted by your employer, and the investment choices you make for your money within that scheme.
  6. Perhaps they could cut to the chase and have a referendum on sharing out the accumulated wealth of the (say) top 10% of the population between the less fortunate 90%? I'm shaw it would be a popular proposal.
  7. The better (and more likely) explanation is simply that they are paranoid about security. Problems of the type you're worried about won't show up first in transactions of this type.
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