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Deft

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  1. Deft

    Housing crisis and immigration

    So what's your point? We haven't built enough houses to deal with population growth? Not really much to do with net migration. That's just the good old UK for the last 20 years.
  2. Deft

    Housing crisis and immigration

    But there really hasn't been lots more people in the whole overall trend of UK population. It's way too simplistic and not born out by the facts if you dig even a little bit. It's a nice simplistic argument that everyone can "grasp" as "common sense" but let's look at it a bit more before we go burning immigrants at the stake. Give or take a couple of minor negative years (like < -0.04 %) the UK population has only ever gone up since the mid 1970s. Over the same period - house prices have been a one way bet too. So you have your amazing correlation - house prices are proportional to total population over that period. However, in the late 1980s to mid 90's, there was a drop in house prices yet the population was still going up. This is also true for 2007-2009 type period. So there are significant periods where the change in population is a terrible predictor of house prices. Usually during model building this would flag up additional predictors / factors are needed. If you skin the data by % change year on year then it gets even worse as a predictor. Likewise you could draw the same slightly simplistic correlations with many other metrics. Give or take, the following have also "gone up" over the same period: Living standards Average educational level attained Average population age / longevity Healthcare costs Major share indices Computing power Why don't we thank population growth or immigration for these things too? The same thing about the "all the public services have gone to shit" statements too. It fits with the marauding immigrants theme as a simplistic explanation. The fairly gradual increase in population has been a factor for this country for decades - yet now it's all at breaking point? Having zero population growth couldn't hurt at some level - but we should be looking for more explanations than simply population growth if we are talking house prices or lack of public services. The problem is there doesn't seem to be a coherent multi-factor strategy to deal with any of these issues. If we have zero net migration but still population growth who do we blame then? Through the decades perhaps we can blame Irish catholic immigrants for not using contraception, indian subcontinent immigrants as they have more than 2 children, perhaps the favourite feckless white trash benefit chavs for popping out kids to get child benefit. But I'm glad that we have finally sussed out why house prices and public services have gone to shit - it woz the immigrants wot done it.
  3. Deft

    Housing crisis and immigration

    Even if there is double or triple the official increase in total population, I don't see that the country should have imploded. The endless anecdotes of everything going to shit can't solely be because of a 5-15% in people. Confirmation bias and/or spurious correlation.
  4. Deft

    Housing crisis and immigration

    The other thing is that the UK population has grown by around 5% over the last 10 years give or take a bit. How are we now at some mad scarcity of services / availability / ? Everything now full because of an extra person per 20? Think this is government policy in action rather than bursting to the seams.
  5. Deft

    Housing crisis and immigration

    The thing that makes me dubious about a particularly strong link with immigration is that for however long there has been net migration, I assume those migrants are not evenly dispersed around the country. Yet prices have relatively gone mental everywhere for 15 years, and that can't all be some amazing London ripple.
  6. If this happens the circle is complete and I have become my dad.
  7. Yeah at the moment it's a bit swings and roundabouts. If I destroy the ISA, I can build it up again in a few years - or hold mortgage and pay it off naturally in a similar time frame. A nice enough problem to have. I suppose I have angled more towards paying down the debt, as I haven't maxed out ISA allowance - but overpaid on the mortgage first and then anything spare into ISA (the non ISA stuff is company share scheme / options). If I was really bullish I would have gone ISA 100% (plus wife's allowance) and with hindsight that strategy would have paid off handsomely. Now the sums are less likely to ruin me I'm feeling a bit more comfortable holding some cheap debt and keeping the investments in place - but I do enjoy the idea of not owing the bank anything. I think my brain has been so focused on paying off the mortgage I'm not sure what my post mortgage life strategy is! Getting ready for midlife crisis.....
  8. In around 18 months time I'll come off a 5 yr fixed rate mortgage. If I'm lucky (and the pound devalues to nothing), I might be in a position to clear the mortgage. Half would be from shares ISA and half from non-ISA. Psychologically clearing the mortgage would be great, but keeping my years of built up ISA allowance could be more financially sensible. Keeping the ISA intact would probably mean another 3-5 years of mortgage. Whilst money is cheap it sort of makes sense to effectively borrow against my house to stay in stocks and shares - though it sounds a bit odd when I phrase it like that. Any other pros / cons or general thoughts? Obviously BTL should be my real plan for the money.
  9. Although I don't work in IT, I take an interest in aspects of it as a certified geek. The thing with all the outsourcing etc. it's been going on long enough that on some level businesses have taken some kind of rational decision to say "****** the consequences", haven't they?
  10. I do like the idea of having easy access to all plumbing and electrics though. I could go for the hospital / utilitarian look I reckon. I am aesthetically challenged.
  11. Deft

    I Refused A Liar Loan In 2006

    She was just trying to help you get your forever house.
  12. Interesting, it was mobile data and Vodafone for me.
  13. I had a weird pop-up on Android too, must have been a week ago. Only happened once, never again.
  14. Deft

    Btl Gone Wrong

    The best thing about BTL is it can start actively costing you money.
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