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House Price Crash Forum

plums

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  1. Just had a quick look at HPC, as had nothing better to do, and fancied a bit of a giggle, after a few months not having visited the site. Anyway, I see nothing much has changed, since I last had a look! Looks like Si1 is still up to his usual, albeit eloquently worded, relentless shenanigans. Also, looking at a few of the threads on HPC, it also seems that the same old characters are still making the same old jibes, taking the same old cheap shots at anyone they can and the 'system'. I find it all rather amusing, as well as unashamedly hypocritical, because it's really not hard to decipher some of the posts of the usual suspects at HPC thinly veiled comments. I will would eat my hat, and everyone's for good measure, if a significant percentage of the 'haters of property owner' types posting here, are NOT themselves actually VIs/ landlords, despite their continually carefully worded comments. As for this 'Lion' fella: I must say, he seems a sensible and rounded individual, using his brain and logic in his risk analysis, a calculated decision re participating in the the heavily overvalued and inflated UK property market, compared to most of the 'orrible HPC whiner/ramper types?
  2. LOL. Hi CrashConnoisseur don’t worry about Si1’s remarks too much. He’s just a saddo who get’s his kicks in life from spending 24/7 of his life as a forum hag. Sadly his pea-sized brain is incapable of realizing that either (1), any transition in HB govt spending needs to be handled delicately or (2), the previous govts should have never implemented this hand-out culture / mess in the first place. We have to face it we had (1), so from a macro economic pov, we need to handle the situation very carefully.. In my experience there are two main character types that make up the HPC masses: (1) p!ssed off first time buyers and (2) out-and-out, plain and simple forum nutters. Unfortunately, methinks Si1 is from the latter category..
  3. By ‘ghettos’ I neither meant ‘nice’ or ‘not nice’. Actually ‘ghettos’ is the wrong word as it has negative connotations. Something like mini socioeconomic communities or hubs might be more appropriate. But you’re right in that my view would mainly be restricted to areas in demand in London and any other towns (in any country actually) where a large proportion of the inhabitants are transient, there for work reasons and have no intention of setting down long term roots in London. Many of those people would only ever rent in London and never buy property there, regardless of the state of HP market at the time. I myself was an example of that kind of inhabitant.
  4. PS – By the way, I am a supporter of the social welfare cuts that spiralled out of control in recent years, so please don’t get me wrong. The financial benefits for the country and tax payers is clear, at the expense of a few. There should be some downward pressure on rents in lower quality areas and slum landlords may have to take a hit. HP will need to adjust mainly due to credit availability. The only point I was trying to make (perhaps not very well ) is that I think some are mistaken if they think in addition to HPC, they believe that all rents across the board will decline without an increase in supply..
  5. TOW – sincere apologies if you were upset by the tone of my message. I guess my problem is (1) I was confronted by a rather aggressive individual after first posting on this site recently, so perhaps that gave me an unfair / unrepresentative understanding of what this site is all about and (2) writing late in the evening after a few sherbets is probably never a good idea.. I just don’t know where you guys find the time to spend all day on a web forum. Anyway, I think clearly you are right, in saying that by increasing the supply of stock / house building whether that is through longer term planning / govt funding or relaxing planning laws that might encourage private sector builders into action is a sensible approach. It seems that the underlying hidden tone of many posters on this forum is extremely right wing, regardless of their investment ‘stock’ of choice (property, bonds, shares, gilts, currencies etc). But my comments regarding ghettoization were not made from any right or left wing ‘angle’. When I mentioned ‘affordability’, although very simplistic, I meant that phrase to include cost of credit and credit availability. By HR I meant rental values specifically. All geographical areas in the UK have seen a huge housing bubble in terms of HP over recent years, but not so in terms of rents (in ok areas). How do I know this? – Personal and friends’ experiences as a rent customer (tenant) for a decade and research. I do not think the government social welfare cuts are a bad thing, actually on the contrary as a tax payer, but I just don’t expect there to be a massive reduction in private sector rental values in half decent areas. I think that will be restricted to grottier areas / properties, that were artificially inflated due to HB assistance. I fully realise that you are saying that HB reductions in ‘those’ areas will also bring rents in every area down. I understand your economic rationale that the rental market is linked in all geographical areas. But I just don’t share your view, sorry. In the case of London, the distance between two areas (ie one area in demand, with ‘ok/nice’ properties and good transport links etc versus another area with poor demand, lower quality housing could only be a few streets away. My (perhaps inaccurate) assumption was that the majority of posters here would like to live (rent or buy) in the former (ok property, ok area) as opposed to the latter (slummier property / area)? Many HB tenants may be forced move to the worst areas (even if that is just a few streets away in London). Rightly or wrongly, I suspect that many of the NIMBY private renters currently living (renting or buying) in the not so good areas, less than happy with the gradual influx of HB tenants and change in socioeconomic dynamics of their area will do their best to move to the ‘nicer’ areas. Especially if they are renters and have the better flexibility to up sticks I think many will move, even if that means they have to pay a bit more in rent. One benefit in terms of housing standards, is that perhaps the new influx of private tenants replacing HB tenants in nicer areas, is they will not accept poorer quality housing even if it is in a nicer area, so standards in those areas might improve. At the same time, standards in the slummier areas may deteriorate? When I referred to ghettos, I did not mean that as a derogatory term, by the way.
  6. Please ignore the above post by the rather simple minded and dim-witted gentleman / lady, who seems to have not much to say yet seems to constantly crave attention. Let’s make this forum a sensible one. Please! And in that regard, serious posts only if you don't mind...
  7. Yes I do. And related factors that have an effect the HP market. The HR market is more simplistic. Explain your comment please?
  8. The whole market? Really? Are you absolutely 100% sure? I thought it was just the less salubrious areas / crappier properties that were being propped up by H B. Or am I mistaken? Your username and posts that I have seen suggest (or SHOUT) that you are ‘Tired of Waiting’.. to get on the property ladder. For a HPC? a HRC? or a HPC and a HRC? Which one are you particularly after? I suspect that in the short to medium term, it may not be possible to get both and there is a lot of wishful thinking suggested by yourself and others here, surely? Assuming you would like to live (regardless of whether you are renting or buying) in an ok / nice property and area, which one would you prefer (HPC or HRC)? There are many factors that determine HP values (eg location, demand, wages and affordability being the key ones). But as renting has always been relatively cheap in the UK (comparative to buying anyway) and let’s assume for a second that people presumably have a necessity/ desire to live SOMEWHERE, in terms of HR surely basic geographical demand will have more of an effect on rental values than any economic rhetoric or actions by forum posters here or people in power such as George, Dave or even the genuinely (potentially) powerful Merv and his gang could have? As said before, although I’m not a big supporter of Nulab as people on here like to call them (nor ConDem for that matter either), their remarks about the impacts on ghettoization of London and other parts of the UK will clearly come true? Many Nazi / NIMBY (and even the deniers of those!) comments on this site have suggested that many here don’t care about that, and suggest that in fact they would welcome ‘cleansing’ with open arms. But the fact is that it just seems a little peculiar that some posters believe they can somehow persuade those in power who might potentially have some sway, not to consider the needs of ALL classes (their own ie upper/politicians or middle, working or HB classes) are deluded. Plums PS Dunno how you guys find the time to spend all your time on here with a new ‘post every few min utes. Previously on another thread, I questioned what is the rationale behind some of the posters here. But having read a little more, sadly it seems that the main ‘kind’ of poster here are just purely keyboard jockeys. I studied Mies van der Rohe and his modernist contemporaries at college and perhaps the ‘less is more’ approach might give us more time to consider facts rather than just bleating? Pps As asked before – please can some of the senior members here (with undoubted capability for accurate / unbiased stats) provide even a very basic London / UK historical rent v wage inflation chart / graph that we can simply refer the rent moaners to when they start their bleating?
  9. It just amazes me what is the rationale behind most of the posters on this website? Is it because they believe that the ‘market’ will see their posts / pleas for a HPC and simply oblige? Are these people all youngsters who have little appreciation of the cost of living and who have seen Homes under the hammer or whatever it’s called… and are just so desperate to get on the housing ladder (like their life depends on it) and think ranting on a website forum will magically change the market for them? Do they think that because of their job function which has given them a very basic understanding of economic theory will change the market in their favour? Or are they simply purely forum hacks / keyboard jockeys who have nothing better to do with their time, and who have not found much luck in being able to express their feelings on digitalspy or other sites that have a lower threshold for abuse and web etiquette than this one does and are simply trying their luck and poor communication skills here? It’s the house RENT crash rampers on here who I think are particularly deluded. Life is expensive, but rents in this county are not. Earlier it was questioned whether data regarding HP v wages was accurate. Other threads have insinuated that rents are outrageously high due to HB. Get real folks, rents are cheap in the UK and have declined v wages in real terms over recent decades. I joined this site for interest / fun in the hope that I might find some educated discussion / analysis on the cost of housing, but sadly it seems that the vast majority of people are not interested in this and only wish to continue your ramping (one way or the other) in the hope that your words and carefully chosen use of data will somehow change the terms of a ‘relatively’ free market.. And finally… by definition, every single poster on here is a VI.. THEONLY THING THAT MAY LEAD TO A HP DECREASE IN THE UK IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ATTITUDE OF THE ACTUAL LENDERS, so rather than propaganda here, perhaps bombarding the actual lenders, may be a better option in terms of turning your dreams in to reality?
  10. The most accurate post I’ve seen on here in a long time! Sadly those forummers who joined and are posting on here, purely hoping that the ‘UK house purchase affordability gods’ will look down from high above, see their rants and choose to ignore all related economic factors such as the cost of credit and magically make real estate purchases (as opposed to ‘hiring a home’ aka renting) more ..ahem.. financially viable to them, may be eternally deluded.. Edit Ps Like many on here no doubt, I too was disappointed by the content of the 'Palin NIP video' thread...
  11. Fair enough. But I had would have thought that with all the combined experience that the property gurus and economic whizzkids on here have, someone could easily produce such a chart (showing inflation adjusted rents for at least the past decade or so). I would have thought that any such chart would show that the people (ok, not you it seems) who claim that rents have increased dramatically in London and SE anyway, will actually see that (inflation adjusted) surely they have crashed dramatically. Just seems a little odd that some people are very quick to use inflation adjustments to help prove one argument regarding sales prices, yet conveniently choose to ignore inflation when arguing about rents. If such charts as that and also another one showing average rents v average wages by location, were available, then any discussions that involve rental levels might be based on fact rather than fiction, leading to more sensible debate on that subject?
  12. Ok, fair enough. In my inebriated state last night, I used the word ‘increase’ rather than words to the effect that the latter figure was a ‘multiple’ of the former. Silly me! Anyone got an inflation adjusted chart for rental levels over the past four decades…
  13. “Q4 2010 to Q3 2020 = predictions anyone??” I am neither what you define as a ‘bull’ nor a ‘bear’ . It was simply a question for you.. ahem.. superior beings… Thank you for your responses. We'll see...
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