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the_dork

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Everything posted by the_dork

  1. I wish I could subscribe to the view that 'what cannot be sustained won't be' but I think in medium term timescales it probably will be. You can't cancel the apocalypse but you can keep putting it off. This and the last government have staked their whole 'economy' around house prices. What many on here don't seem to realise is that the 'market' for housing is very different to that for say, haircuts. There is no reason why we won't move towards a society where those who have housing pass it on, their offspring either renting in fun shared houses or saving cash at home, and those who don't spend more and more of their salaries on substandard housing, topped up by benefits. Debt as a share of GDP isn't that high, I don't see why this won't happen over the next sat 25-30 years. There's no law of economics saying that prices must adjust to become affordable or that wages must rise. The only real prospect for change is major reform of law/policy which despite a bit more talk recently, still seems aeons off.
  2. One of those ideas which sounds nice but makes no sense. Why not set at £10/hour, £50/hour? Unfortunately, many 'employers' are not actually living a greatly different lifestyle to employees or making so much more that they can 'afford' to pay this. Obviously big corporations and govt departments could pay more but why should say, a cleaner be better paid because they happen to working for them rather than a small firm? A basic unconditional income is a far more sensible solution to the 'cost of living crisis' .
  3. I saw many flats in London when purchasing 3 years ago, nice areas but fairly grotty blocks (Islington, Maida Vale, Notting Hill) where the properties were for sale as the elderly lessees had never bothered extending if had no one to pass on to or presumably just didn't have any cash. By the time you have a year left you are basically paying 99% of the market value (plus costs) so unless you're desperate for the particular flat is probably not worth it. When they actually expire, they stay on as protected tenants but at market rates, the leasehold returns to the freeholder (invariably an old estate or semi criminal developer who bought loads up a few decades ago) Unlike many here I don't have a problem with flats or service charges but the feudal leaseholder system is a mug's game.
  4. Hackney is pretty much the nicest bit now after the real elite (Chelsea, Islington etc), London has changed a lot over last 15 years. Would far rather be in most that area than the other London boroughs, there's pockets of low income workers in crap housing but that doesn't =gang warfare any more. Nice leafy area with plenty to do and improving transport. Worst thing is you get Labour drone Dianne Abbott as your MP.
  5. Bingo, great post. Just don't agree with the last sentence. There's no particular reason why the subsidies can't continue particularly given the Overton window still sees benefits as being good for everyone regardless of consequences (witness furore over tiny changes called the bedroom tax)
  6. 'considering moving' is like those polls which ask people if they'd consider living in America/Spain or whatever, of course they would but you can only measure people by what they actually do, not say. I don't particularly have a problem with London evolving into a den for super rich and immigrant super class, with a layer of professional middle class commuters (which I am). It's the artificiality of it that throws me and the fact that so many graduate jobs are based here for no good reason. Hopefully over time a random city, say Bristol or Birmingham, can get a bigger share of government departments, media, artistic activities etc but HS2 seems like a plan for almost the reverse, hope to raise up places by linking more to London
  7. For those who think they are somehow 'anti-establishment' or likely to do anything worthwhile on housing...creeping Marxism FFS UKIP top for property donors By Samantha McClary | Institutional | 20-06-2014 | 11:00 | Print The property industry is the biggest supporter of UKIP, according to an analysis of party political donations so far this year. UKIP has received a total of £493,412 in donations in 2014, with some £65,000 coming from the property industry. This represents more than 13% of its total donations so far this year, massively outstripping the three main political parties in terms of percentages. The Conservative Party remains the largest receiver of funding from property by volume, with around £292,000 donated during the 1 January to 13 June period. As a percentage of the total raised for the Tories so far this year, property has provided 4.4%. Labour comes next with 1.8% of its total coming from the real estate industry, with the Liberal Democrat party languishing in fourth place with a mere 0.2% of donations from property. UKIP’s property donation this year has come entirely from Shoreditch-based residential and commercial developer Mura Estates. The firm, set up in 1995, is a joint venture with Aitch Group, and is run by chairman Henry Smith. UKIP has seen donations surge over the past year as many former Tory donors switch to Nigel Farage’s party. Last year UKIP raised almost £110,000 from real estate, including £25,000 from Panther Securities’ Andrew Perloff, who has asked shareholders to support the donation of a further £17,500 this year. In his most recent results, Perloff said: “Having financially supported the Conservatives for a long time, last year I changed my mind and decided to support UKIP. This is mainly because of the government’s continual financial attack on property ownership and the property industry. “It seems to me that the gradual salami-style increases in taxation (including taxation for planning permission), the regulation and removal of indexation and other allowances plus the failure to fix the rates debacle are a form of creeping Marxism completely at odds with a forward-looking, successful, free market economy.” In total, the property industry has donated almost £500,000 to political parties this year (see graph, above). Major Tory donors include Countrywide Developments, which donated £75,000, while Westfield and John Guthrie’s Broadland Properties, have both given £50,000 to the party. Labour’s biggest property donor this year was former Minerva boss Andrew Rosenfeld, who handed over £100,000. The Lib Dems so far have collected just £12,000 from the real estate industry, from Henley Homes and Tucan Investments. [email protected]
  8. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b046rbm7 Not generally a fan of the beeb's take on housing or the economy but this programme, recorded at LSE, actually touches on a few interesting issues regarding generational justice, planning, buy to let government etc. Never quite gets to prices or the tax system but we are getting closer... Fun story of a graduate who lived in her friend's boiler cupboard for a few weeks too
  9. No you are quite correct, his idea of international clearing union post-war would have been revolutionary. It was seen as going hand in hand with the new floating exchange rates which didn’t fully kick in until well after his time anyway. There’s a new book out about the conference he went to at the end of the war that sounds intriguing
  10. yes an intellectual giant, who rightly saw economics as a form of 'dentistry' inevitably based on political arguments rather than precise value-free science. Wrong about banking and also very racist/anti-Semitic by current standards. According to him we should be on a 4 hour work day and concentrating on the arts by now, guess he was writing before phones, computers, foreign travel became standard consumption items...
  11. My take: Democracy= majority rule, through representatives, with minority rights. Populism= simplistic solutions to problems that have superficial appeal but generally disintegrate on examination. It's a shame they get confused as the public debate/discussion part of democracy seems to me more important than hoping to elect a few super humans who can work everything out. Labelling this 'populism' is just a cheap jibe by those who think they automatically know best. I agree with your take but I think the problem is that UKIP identify some problems but the solutions ARE populist, they just don't stack up. They have turned an important point on EU and democracy into what causes all of this country's political, economic and social problems, it just doesn't stack up
  12. http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/02/housing-tax-property-help-to-buy-government-schemes Are we getting closer to a breakthrough? In many ways it's a shame this was by Monbiot in the Guardian as he's tainted (for some, not me) by his views on other things, but it's a very sensible article and there's some good stuff in the comments. The day we get similar written on Conservative Home or even the Daily Mail (I live in hope) is the day this will be seriously talked about by potential governments EDIT: He is advocating capital gains on property, not land value tax as such, I mean the idea is getting closer
  13. Yep, think prices have more or less stagnated when you compare like for like transactions, other than London & SE which is it's own market. It's clear that the goal of our rules is to avoid this collapsing, even real stagnation seems improbable.
  14. I voted Green but would vote UKIP in a general election against Lab or Tories, probably vote for LibDem above them all!
  15. never heard of this guy but am reading through now. Some pretty interesting stuff and very honest about the failures of the political parties Thanks for the link
  16. so I'm assuming this doesn't count as one worth watching to those of us who only watch when someone interesting on? I like Jeremy Browne from what I've seen, fresh ideas and honest...that's why he's been demoted within the LibDems
  17. Really not sure about that. I shared in houses of various sizes and quality for 4 years, was great fun and sociable though of course always the risk of personality clashes. However, couldn't bear to do it now. I think non top earners will move further out unless they inherit a deposit, just not a feasible way for adults to live long term.
  18. What is going to happen to them? Seen stats on grads moving to London, basically it’s where the jobs are for anyone semi-ambitious and I suppose over time people move up so that they could potentially get jobs in the professional fields (law, accounting, IT, marketing) further out when their salary goes up. But the point of the jobs ladder, as with housing, is that not everyone can 'move up' Just anecdotally, I know maybe a dozen people living here, half on the proverbial 22 grand job in the city…sharing pretty crumby flats or houses that they try to be in as little as possible. It’s fun living in London but if you’re remotely interested in the middle class 2.4 children lifestyle, it’s pretty impossible other than for the top tier. Obviously some of these people will inherit at some point but many won’t.. A reasonable deposit to buy in London must be 6 figures now anyway so again you have to be from a pretty untypical family to get that load of support Are there just going to be loads of couples/singletons sharing the big London houses in their 40’s and 50’s? Or will some political movement have put pressure on government by then to reform the housing market?
  19. Hmm, seems I'm on my own though I admit I've rarely seen her programme Suspect I just fancy her a bit...
  20. she is a symptom, not the cause. Seems a nice enough lady with a good TV personality, not her fault that this combined with a posh background and expensive education means some see her as an expert on housing policy and economics But yeah, gave up QT long ago unless there's someone outside LibLabCon (Galloway, Farage etc) who doesn't talk in cliches
  21. I'm a democratic technocrat But really democracy does only work if a critical mass of people have a rough idea what's going on. Recent surveys (see what people think about any issue, where tax goes, no. immigrants, benefits spending etc) suggest this is not the case
  22. I agree and am entirely disillusioned with LibLabCon as I suppose we must call them. However, a cursory look at UKIP shows they're not for me. I'll be voting Green even though I'm sure I'd laugh at many of their policies if looked in more detail. I'd urge people on this site to check out their policies on economics and housing, it's not hippy pie in the sky stuff
  23. I don't think many people here have a realistic understanding of what 'trade' is. This isn't the Ricardo idea of us importing wine and exporting cloth, most trade takes place within large multi-national corps supply chains. It's not something co-ordinated by individuals or most businesses in this country. I despise the current EU commission, the fraud, the accounting failures, the ineffective parliament...but don't delude myself that bringing all the governance back to Westminster somehow solves your problems. I think most people who support UKIP do so only because of immigration rather than detailed understanding of EU institutions, which is what Farage was initially campaigning on. The reality is that with rising India and China, some sort of regional co-operation and common culture is probably a good thing in terms of world politics. It's certainly been good for the small states since the end of the Soviet Union in improving governance and living standards So for once I basically agree with David Cameron, what we need is to stay in a reformed, less centralised EU. Not to pretend that we'll somehow prosper as a little island 'trading' with New Zealand and Jamaica
  24. Yes, that's exactly my point. There was no more Labour party. They became the party of PC, multi-culturalism etc... as a way of distinguishing from the 'nastier' side of the Tories, whilst buying into most of the rest of her ideology. Agree the No Society quote is distorted when you look at what she said. Nothing wrong with the idea that we're all responsible for what we do rather than looking to blame 'society'
  25. Asked her greatest achievement, Thatcher rightly said 'Tony Blair' I respect the traditional views of both Conservative and Labour parties after the war where there was a fair amount of consensus on economic matters, just differed on other issues. I would vote for either ahead of anyone on offer today We have now ended up with worst of all worlds, all 3 parties are somewhere on the liberal spectrum. Nothing wrong with liberalism per se but it's no longer working as it should in a democracy (on either economic or social matters) and there's no option to change it.
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