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House Price Crash Forum

the_dork

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  1. this was on in Hammersmith around 2020, highly recommend to most readers on here and I'm sure it will come back No spoilers but memorable quote "I want you to buy me a house"
  2. yes, sorry for not posting link My understanding is they won't update you (not allowed). I guess providing your details as reporter is just contact info in unlikely event it was required. I do wonder how underreported landlord income is, seems an easy way to help the taxpayer pot but I doubt looking into any reported cases is much of a priority for the Tory govt
  3. There is an HMRC link for general reporting. Has anyone reported landlords who they suspect don't declare? I know you wouldn't hear back but does anyone have any idea how effective this is? Due to my job, this is something I could quite easily report on a lot...
  4. My understanding is that surveyors definition of market value is simply the price paid at valuations date in normal market ie. not the owner next door who would pay more or the seller in a hurry who would accept less this is an entirely circular definition that just rubber stamps 99% Of the prices paid and leaves banks free to base their lending decision on other criteria unlike say a company valuation that considers income streams, likely market conditions in future , bit of sensitivity’s analysis etc they will stick their head in a property and find a few in the area at a similar price to tick the purchase price box unless anything fundamentally wrong with the property or unusual sale eg not marketed normally I had our flat valued formally for a family dispute where there wasn’t a transaction to go on. The guy valued low to limit his liability which was actually in our favour but was amazed by how little work actually done, just happened to be a basically comparable flat on at the same time at 400k when no other sales within the year below 450k. Could equally have ‘proved’ 500k, say if his instructing party had wanted this figure as there were sales around that level too. Basically very little rigour and only heavily caveated and safe report But what do you expect for a £600 fee with potentially ruinous PI cost?
  5. This is a popular and common sense position but I just don't understand it economically (morally it does make sense). We had a few decades where it was true in this country for various reasons (a key one was that at least 1/3 of families lived in social housing outside the market system BTW) but it's not a law of nature or history.
  6. I wanted to do this but was vetoed by my wife who has no interest in house prices/finances etc, again kids was a major factor too. My wife has the view of renting being throwing money away, I'm an 'opportunity cost' minded person. Called the top of our inherited flat a couple of years ago, it was at least 10% down in real terms at start of year so at least another 5% down now. The much smaller amounts I have in global diversified funds have returned at least 10% pa over last 2-3 years so we would be well up assuming a rental cost of 4-5% So in pure financial terms I was right then, now it's probably more marginal. I am still planning to move from a high value area in London to a much cheaper commuter town in next couple of years so I guess that's a halfway solution (assuming London doesn't crash disproportionately)
  7. I saw that and it was so obviously nonsense that's why I'm asking for a better source (I used to think Islam was a good commentator too)
  8. can anyone recommend an online source that ACCURATELY explains what QE is, its goals, effects and differences from plain old money printing? The scale of it dwarfs my mind but the left don't seem to go after the government on this, perhaps it's too complex for Joe Public to get a good handle on and use as political ammo To a dumb layman than me it seems the worst of all worlds, rather than just giving money to people who would spend it as they wish, it's designed to prop up specific asset prices through making it easier to buy them through set intermediaries unlike a UBI type stimulus
  9. https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/brokers-grapple-with-down-valuations/ what the brokers don't seem to grasp is that valuers don't robotically just repeat outdated sales transactions (rather, they shouldn't) but take a professional view on the direction of the market.
  10. Bingo, the forum should more a accurately be called 'land price crash' as that is the main issue IMO Not sure when you left school but I believe as late as 1980 around 1/3 people were in the social rented sector, a system with its own problems ( though better than current system overall for me)
  11. Ok thanks, just can't agree that the 'should' matches anything realistically economically. Half that for an average property elsewhere is 125k, probably half the actual build cost,I just can't see it regardless of the 'sense' it makes in relation to wages
  12. Scuse me jumping in and generally lurking but what do you think would be an accurate price for the average London home? It's such a special case in terms of (global) demand that I just can't see 3-4x even joint earnings being a law of nature there
  13. That's interesting but has not been my (limited) experience of the upper classes who have been just as grasping and avaricious as anyone else. Though perhaps not all with 'airs and graces' actually have that much net worth. It takes about 3m household wealth to be in the top 1% of UK now and many of these are probably immigrants. So anyone 'comfortable' with say £1m to split is likely to not be rich enough NOT to argue/fight over bequests
  14. My wife's grandfather won the football pools and bought two small flats in now fairly desirable Zone 2 parts of London with the winnings in the 60s, worth around 500k each today. He lived in one and family in the other. My wife inherited both as her father couldn't accept her brother's gay lifestyle. She gifted one straight to him around 10 years ago and with hindsight the father made the right decision on how to bequeath as the money (MEW powered) has been frittered away on substance abuse and transient consumerism. It's very sad and she has no choice but to be judgemental about him having previously been very close. The family were not well off in terms of income and had been mainly killed off by a combo of Stalin and Hitler, all wealth and security came from the flats. I've seen another thankfully more distant family member spend a considerable inheritance on lawyers arguing over how to split what was left, the lawyers ended up the only winners. TLDR Moral of story: it's natural to help your kin but will always lead to judgement at best, and vicious arguments at worse. Money means power and this will generally bring out the worst side of humanity
  15. Thanks for taking the time to explain to a simple lad like me! As you say a yield is just a ratio, income v price. By this comment do you mean they capture the implied capital growth over the 25 year period? Hence why London's yields have dropped so much? Author says : property yields have collapsed by a third in London over the past 14 years. The main driver of divergent prices around the country therefore appears to have been growing global demand for London (and potentially other major UK city) housing assets, but not growing demand from people to live there. but this surely just begs the question, why would there be such global demand if not based on underlying fundamentals which does ultimately include 'demand from people to live there'? People don't invest/speculate for the sake of it Why would there be such a different yield across regions, say on similar student lets as you mention? Surely this shows that whilst IRs are a key factor, the supply and demand of other things (namely properties and people/households) also has some impact on prices and explains why both rent is higher AND disproportionately the capital values are higher in say Surrey than Burnley just to use my example. This would factor through with IRs at 5%, 10% etc too
  16. Thanks for reply but I don't understand. The yields are higher in Burnley than Surrey to use my example but prices much lower. How has the IR determined the price (capital value not rental)? I don't buy his 'imputed rent' model much
  17. Exactly, and that's based on other factors than interest rates, despite their key part to play!
  18. I am sympathetic to the main argument of the report and for reasons of inelasticity curves, don't think building will make the impact politicians sometimes claim. However, for those that buy this guy's thesis in full: Why do prices differ so much in say Surrey (not picking the harder example of Kensington & Chelsea say or London more generally) to Burnley? IRs are the same nationally
  19. I don't normally watch stuff like this but I watched the first episode and it was interesting, only one family I would actually label as poor. The Welsh family were probably fairly typical earners, just the guy getting into wrestling made for good TV. They were a nice if simple family, good luck to them. Felt particularly sorry for the homeless man and son who amazingly retained a great positive attitude (although cameras do distort behaviour), all problems stemmed from him losing his cheap caravan linked to his caretaker job. Prime example of the 'deserving poor' who many would no doubt label feckless scroungers. Again fairly simple people obviously not the brightest but seemed genuine and likable, why has our system screwed people like this so hard? Couldn't help feeling there was more to the story of the Uber driver who had been a musician, photographer and raised £1.5m for another venture that was skipped over ...to then end up at 60 with no savings, property or pension and driving 60 hours a week though seemingly with secure housing assoc rental. He was a charismatic seemingly intelligent guy though so you felt his relatively poor position was more self-inflicted somehow.
  20. Yeah I get it, it just seems a waste of that instinct to me to channel into what are often objectively fairly meaningless positions, "******** jobs" to use the current term. Stuff like being in sales/marketing or middle management just doesn't seem interesting to me, especially when it's for firms that sell stuff we largely don't want and that you yourself avoid buying. Different if it's a cause you are into. You interested in politics at all? Im not party political but if I had time there are a few causes (mainly around environment but also economic reform) I'd like to get more involved with. Anything like that you would find satisfying, or mentoring/volunteering kids in your area?
  21. Not many millenials own property...but I have a similar mindset to you and respect your strategy a lot. It's baffling to me how many people get status from their mid-upper mid corporate jobs, having had hippie parents this wasn't something I ever picked up, it has probably cost me employment wise as I just don't have that motivation. Also clear that some people derive more utility than you or I from spending on stuff they may not need. I went out with a retail worker who regularly spent equivalent of at least one weeks salary on a dinner/drinks out with cab home (!) or handbag and bought her lunch/coffee out every day. At some level she must have valued those things more than saving for an unknown uncertain future, clearly from the average savings rate, many are in the same boat
  22. Let's call that 20k after tax so not miles off the average salary. Whether renting or buying and as all on this forum will know 25 to 30% of that on accommodation is not unrealistic. Let's say 1 k per annum unavoidable bills, in reality this is also conservative. 2 k per annum on food for a single person again highly conservative. Again let's be conservative and say 1k on travel, not many people are going to bike everywhere. I've also not factored any spending on kids considering fertility rates this is not actually so unrealistic but many people do do hope to have a familyo saving all the rest i.e. no entertainment, household goods, insuranceor other spending on clothing food etc they may save 10K. After 20 years of this ie in their 40s most likely that's a 200k pot to play with, let's be generous and call it 300k compounded far from retirement level for most and you can see why people just blow their are extra income on things that make life marginally easier and more pleasant eg socialising holidays. There is a reason that average salary in this country is around 25k and the average adult is only worth 100k remember this includes your property etc!!
  23. I'm interested in this debate and by nature am a frugal person, instinctively recoil from food out flash cars clothes etc. However the the idea that this lifestyle is achievable by reasonable age for most people even in the rich world is pretty unlikely. What is true is that the lifestyle and thinking behind it says much about our nature to work.most people want to do something they enjoy and that they contribute to the world with their days rather than sitting around watching Netflix all the time, this doesn't have to mean writing a great symphony etc but plenty of people take satisfaction from their lower level contributions. The fact that so many jobs are other boring, stressful or in other ways unpleasant says a lot about our society and power within it, doing things for money really is an inherently low motivation. I feel that basic income combined with a more progressive tax system particularly on land and inheritance would alleviate many of the issues that those in the article righly identify in a fairer more socially just way
  24. Sorry for hijacking thread but thanks again for the really interesting links.
  25. Thanks for reply, that's seriously comfortable I'm naturally frugal and on bad work days wonder if could retire by sweating out 500k assets, I think a single man could but bit negligent with kids
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