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Caveat Mortgagor

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Everything posted by Caveat Mortgagor

  1. Ive had a few sentiments similar to the op myself. But I quickly come to my senses by looking around me. I can see the falls happening, its just that they are frustratingly slow. I see estate agents windows have awful properties such as terraced on main road in crap part of town with no off-road parking yet gangs of hoodies hanging around outside who take great pleasure from keying anything parked on the road: all of the above priced at 7x local earnings, and you just want to scream! But prices are coming down. I live on a new build estate. Only 1 house on this estate has re-sold since it was built in 2007. The vendors had a conservatory built on and still lost 10% of their purchase price. I see lots of others allegedly for sale with agents, but it seems no-one else on the estate really wants to sell. Aspirational pricing at its worst, most are priced at 2007 price +5 to 10%. In the light of a dearth of forced sales, it would be very easy to give in. But about 2 months ago I also spotted one neighbour had their car repo'd whilst I had nipped home one lunchtime to walk the dog. They are up for sale for 8% more than they paid. 2 other neighbours have traded down from very nice Mercs to very average cars. One is at least asking for slightly less than he paid, but they are still about 15-20% above what the market might pay. LR shows the city has fallen 5.5% in the last 6 months and the falls seem to be picking up speed. Its obvious that people have financial problems and that they have been given a lifeline from low interest rates and government programmes. But at the minute they are living day to day, week to week, month to month. It wont be long before some of these people will capitulate despite the leniency of the banks and govt help because they will be fed up of struggling to make ends meet all for the sake of a depreciating asset. Thats what I am waiting for right now. The dam is not far from bursting. I can sense it. As much as we are sick of it, I am sure they are just as fed up. I want to see the updates of the pace of LR falls published in my local paper just to ensure the message is forced home. I might have to register with their on-line comments service and make sure the good news is spread around!!
  2. On page 1, a poster mentioned without London the figure was +0.34. I would imagine much of the south east is also contributing to the +ve headline figure.
  3. Coventry YoY is -4.3% This reflects the fact that prices were going up this time last year. Over the last 6 months prices are down 5.5%. Annualised that would equate to -11%. Its going to be an interesting summer to see how the YoY figure actually pans out.
  4. Sizeable MoM falls in Coventry in this report (Yes MoM - this is not a typo) Mar to April Detached 255,018 - 248,934 (down 2.3%) Semi 138,262 - 134,963 (down 2.3%) Terraced 97,087 - 94,771 (down 2.4%) Flats 86,441 - 84,378 (down 2.4%) Overall average price 110,444 - 107,809 (down 2.4%) Repeat:-This is not a typo. MoM falls!
  5. Wonder if Land registry will back up these claims at 11 this morning?
  6. I see some people still believe that inflation somehow justifies prices. If this applies to you, please tell me what you are waiting for? There seems to me to be a flaw in the logic of waiting for a 'real terms' hpc to play out. If you see inflation coming to support current prices, why not buy now? Me??? I am waiting for further nominal price falls!!
  7. Hmmm, the full report seems to be missing something. We know the gross amount loaned out, how many mortgages though? It would be nice to know this then calculate the average advance and change in that average over time. Could be an important early indicator for us to digest. For some reason they hide their number of mortgages and mention a BoE figure!! What are they hiding?? Edit to add: I'm sure I have seen this figure published in the past.
  8. Its a repo! Same tape on all facilities in the kitchen.
  9. I heard the end of this piece. Cue a bout of Tourettes in the CM household. Another bit about LSL average rents on the radio on the way into work. Apparently renters have to compete with the glut of students leaving uni and getting their own place but cannot afford to buy. Thats why rents are so high. In summary, its demand driven and there is no end in sight to that demand. No mention of housing benefit as a factor. Nor do they mention that LSL is predominantly an estate agency that wished to sell houses. Looked on Rightmove and found nearly 200 flats in Manc city centre for £600pcm or less. And if he thinks a 2 bed flat is worth £180k, he will probably have a queue of thousands of people currently renting from the bank who wish to offload to him. TWUNT!
  10. see 2 of his comments below from the different links. Hes very certain he only wants to use the banks money for this isnt he? And if he cant get the bank to front the money, let someone else piss their cash away. ‘I’m hoping it will capture the imagination of a developer,’ says Jamie, 31. ‘I could put £300,000 of my own money into it but I no longer have the time to manage it.’ and.... I went through a long planning battle just to get to this stage, so it's going to be quite hard to give up, but it would cost me another £300,000 to finish and I'm not sure it's worth it.'
  11. One of the few public sector workers I know who has been made redundant was in trading standards. The govt continued the funding but removed the ringfence - allowing the council to spend the money however it saw fit. All of a sudden they didnt see a need for quite so many trading standards officers. It always amazed me that part of his job was to patrol sunday car boots and markets to identify people selling fake and counterfeit goods. I struggled with the following premise: If a housewife wants to buy a Prada handbag for £3 so she can feel special when she goes out binge drinking with her friends, why should the council police this activity? The housewife is under no illusion that the handbag is the genuine article, and for £3 can give herself a little ego boost / emotional crutch that many weak people need. Why do we as taxpayers fund a sytem of policing that protects the brand integrity? I know the council dont do anything that protects my employer, so why should they protect the profits of huge corporations who sell overpriced bumf that was probably made in the same sweatshop as the 'fake'.
  12. 7. Knock at least 15% off the lowest price any agent tells you when trying to win an instruction!
  13. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/comment/8492571/House-prices-are-not-going-to-plunge.html 'House prices are not going to plunge' The latest fall in house prices recorded by Nationwide and the Land Registry underlines the unsettled state of the housing market. In particular i like this bit of straw grasping While a strong uplift in prices looks highly unlikely, first-time buyers desperate to get on the housing ladder will be disappointed to hear that so too does a significant plunge. Low levels of activity will continue as more people lose their jobs and get further into debt, while mortgage availability remains tight. We are unlikely to see an improvement in any of these as household spending remains under pressure until well into next year. A plunge is unlikely becasue a number of factors that would be consistent with falling prices are all aligned. She could only have sounded more ridiculous if she had mentioned that the numbers falling behind with mortgage payments is climbing despite the record low interest rates; low rates that must come to an end soon! I smell fear!
  14. For all those HPC deniers..........West Midlands region back below July 2004 prices for all property types. July 2004 March 2011 Detached (£) 232,483 229,261 Semi-detached (£) 120,912 119,236 Terraced (£) 91,110 89,847 Maisonette/Flat (£) 93,311 92,018 All (£) 131,702 129,877
  15. This was discussed on R5 on my way into work. Nice piece for those ramping Mervs continued 'vigilance'. They stated at the outset that prices are rising faster than wages. Conclusion: The BoE is correct to ignore its remit on inflation! (Companies need to pay more apparently!)
  16. We have too much debt. So lets leave interest rates low and encourage even more borrowers to take on eyewatering amounts of debt. If you only have a short time in office, its better to look the other way and hope tshtf under someone elses stewardship.
  17. They alluded to the high cost of childcare, but brushed over it. They seemed quite proud that the govt spends £138k per child in childhood compared to an oecd average of only £95k - yet the sentiment seemed to be 'if only we could spend a bit more we would eradicate child poverty' never acknowledging that the high costs of childcare are caused by govt subsidies to working parents driving up the amounts the childcare industry can charge. By failing to acknowledge this they fail to see that they do not eradicate the marginalisation in society - they simply moe it to a different group of people - those families one income level higher. And no question of whether 'investing' £138k in every child is economically sustainable.
  18. They are calculated having already taken inflation into account - supposedly!
  19. Interestingly, construction fell further: q4_10 -2.3% v -4.7% q1_11
  20. In the light of Gideons comments, I reckon they will be positive, the magnitude something similar to the drop last time, but not enough to make up all 0.5%. So, +0.4% for me!
  21. Interestingly (I dont know if this has its own thread, but might be worth one to bring to peoples attention) 42% of people are expecting house prices to fall (compared with only 16% last year!) Only 11% of people think house prices will increase (compared to 36% a year ago)! Whatever people want, it looks like there has been a change of sentiment. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=531598 The crash in property market confidence has been revealed by a new report, showing more than 40% of people expect house prices to fall. The latest Property Confidence barometer report from listing website Findaproperty.com has laid bare the nervy nature of the housing market. The percentage expecting prices to fall has risen to 42% from 16% a year ago. Just 11% of the 1,000 people surveyed on a monthly basis now believe house prices will rise in the months ahead. That leaves 47% sitting on the fence, neither believing prices will fall or rise, reflecting the stagnant nature of the property market. The figures represents a reversal of fortune since the General Election – last May 16% of people thought prices will fall and 36% thought they would increase. The silver lining to the dark clouds over the property market is that those with the finances to make deals work and make themselves attractive buyers can negotiate hard on prices, if they are willing to purchase. With austerity measures due to bite, borrowers worried that interest rates will soon rise and household incomes being squeezed, confidence has been badly hit. Nationwide's consumer confidence survey recently fell to a record low, while the recent Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors report showed 24% more member estate agents forecasting falling rather than rising prices. Samantha Baden, property analyst at FindaProperty.com, said: 'Since the general election the news has been dominated by talk of government spending cuts, job losses and rising inflation. 'It's not surprising that this gloominess has percolated through to people's everyday lives and is having an impact on confidence. 'Buying a property is the biggest financial decision a person makes in their life and much of the process relies on the confidence of both the buyer and seller in their ability to afford the move and their mortgage payments afterwards.' There has been a slight pick-up in activity in recent months but this spring has failed to lift the property market substantially. The Bank of England reported mortgage approvals for home purchases inching up to 44,000 in March, from 43,000 in February and 41,000 in January. This remains about 40% below long-term average levels, highlighting the number of potential buyers continuing to be locked out of the market by lenders' large deposit demands and the lack of confidence among those who could afford to move. Howard Archer, chief UK economist at analysts IHS Global Insight, said: 'We continue to suspect that further modest falls in house prices are more probable than not over the coming months as tighter fiscal policy and likely gradually rising interest rates add to the pressure on the housing market.' Read more: http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/mortgages-and-homes/house-prices/article.html?in_article_id=531598&in_page_id=57#ixzz1KdinJ6vu
  22. I understand the difficulty others had in following your reasoning. Why would a GE be the catalyst for falls (rather than merely the passage of time)? Also, a no to AV vote could be just as likely to cause resentment (amongst Lib dem MPs) and precipitate the the disintegration of the coalition. FWIW - The falls are happening near me, and different parts of the country where i have family. If you cant see it, either you are looking only at a specific part of your market, or its just a matter of time.
  23. Merv will remain vigilant until his hand is forced. Probably be Aug before we see a rise, but the timing might paradoxically be good for HPC. I am seeing nothing but price falls, I am hoping that by the time the rate goes up, more and more sellers will be more acutely aware of falling prices and difficulty in shifting their overpriced sh!tholes. If sentiment on prices is in the ditch, acknowledging that the rescue team are turning around will be a stake through the heart for many of those who havent managed to sell. So I am suggesting it might mean we have a short fear stage swiftly followed by capitulation
  24. Again, I am prepared to believe what you say, but if an employee has spoken to the tax office and clarified their position so that they get the correct tax code, why would the coding notice go to the employee, but not the employer's payroll dept? These are the poeple who haave phoned the taxman because they know their code is wrong, so its unlikely they will just forget about the issue? Surely what they save from doing this is eaten up by additional costs of employing highly trained (ahem!) staff to take unnecessary extra calls from the public.
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