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Caveat Mortgagor

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Everything posted by Caveat Mortgagor

  1. Pleasant drive to work today. The nervous drivers who struggle to negotiate green traffic lights were probably at home painting placards or something! I am worried though. Who's co-ordinating my outreach? Do we still have equality and diversity? If I wanted a social worker today, would I get one?
  2. Nationwide has been going up recently when every other indicator has said down. I think tomorrow they will announce they have been bought out by the owners of the daily express!
  3. Noooooooo! The ones who remain in work are light years behind the rest of decent society in terms of hardship from the recession. 3 years ago the recession hit me hard. It wiped out about 25% of my salary. There was no point in complaining though. I had to make things happen the only way for things to get better for me was to work harder and smarter. The last thing on my mind was to withdraw my labour for a few days unpaid time-off as a protest about my situation. Not only would it have been counter-productive, I would not have been able to afford such a spell of self-indulgent indignation. The fact these people can afford to do this tells me I should have no sympathy for them. I'll save my sympathy for those hit by the strikes who have to miss work. There will be some people experiencing the hardship I experienced 3 years ago who alas will not have the luxury of being able to do a full weeks work to improve their lot in life because of the petty actions of a significant number of folks spoilt by years of unsustainable largesse.
  4. By contrast to your £50 drop........ Reduced by 37% since first listing 10 months ago!!!
  5. On balance, I dont think £700k is quite enough. Straight from street into lounge, and thats surely not classed as a garden with the view of what looks like an old warehouse or something
  6. Our kids - and grandchildren! And why shouldnt they? It was fathers day this weekend so we are entitled to run this deficit.
  7. Supply side policies and removal of (taxpayer-funded) demand management. 1. Rent caps 2. Strict mortgage criteria 3. Increase income tax threshold / abolish tax credits 4. Cap nursery charges 5. Complete overhaul of benefits and pensions - policies designed to be self-sustaining ie not designed to pass on an even bigger debt to the future. 6. The invisible hand must be allowed to work. As such, legislation to break up any company too big to fail. 7. Uni fees - Govt to pay for a set number of students (but only pay Unis £3k p.a.) - number of places set at say 20% of all current student numbers. Students qualify based on results / ability. Admissions tutors must give Govt funded students priority over self funded students. No limit on fees for the less bright who perhaps shouldnt be at Uni. 8. Govt to subsidise manufacturing apprenticeships - Number of places to be at leat 2x the number of govt funded uni places. (will be restrictions to prevent employers simply exploiting cheap labour). Also tax incentives to invest in targetted skills / training. 9. Investment in public transport 10. At least 50% of London based national public sector jobs to move out of London (exceptions being those supplying local service etc) over a 5 year period.
  8. +1,000,000 For all those who report price drops in real terms, please read the above post. Price inflation without wage Inflation does not support house prices. It makes them more vulnerable and the mechanism for this means pain is felt by more than just the overleveraged.
  9. Firstbuy: Does it help the first time buyer or does it merely protect housebuilders from having to drop prices? If you are allowed to ask the question and then they come back to you to assess the panels reponse, throw in something controversial and see if you can spark the panel to comment further...... Not snappy enough, but something along the following lines would be my suggestion..... The thinking and logic behind firstbuy is economically flawed, but that is not an accident. It is simply a blatent lie that has been dressed up by spin doctors and an abuse of taxpayers money. It is a direct subsidy for housebuilders. These subsidies do not help ftbs - but putting help for ftbs to oneside - if there was a benefit to be had, why are re-sale homes excluded? Answer, because it is a policy to subsidise housbuilders not a policy either to stimulate the housing market or help new entrants who wish to participate in that market.
  10. CBA to read all 9 pages, but has anyone pointed out why these cuts have happened? I know a TS who didnt have his contract renewed in April. The government funding for the coucil remained the same. But the ringfence was removed. The council was no longer dictated where it must spend its money, and decided ity had better ways of using its resources. You can only spend it once. Would be interesting if someone could find out where the money has been re-allocated to, and then compare which is the best use.
  11. For a while I've had a deal with Mrs Caveat that we wouldnt buy until sense was back in the market. Our yardstick has long been based on the price of the average house in the average street in the average part of our City making sense. The logic was that it is easier to calc the average and see if there is any reality in the market. My workings out below show that the average area is not a long way off from being worthwhile buying. Locally I reckon earnings average £23K - a little less than national average. As such, a long term sustainable price would be in the region of 4 times this amount - £96k. So what are these houses advertised at and what are they selling for???. In the last 2 weeks, 19x 3 bed terraced houses have been listed on RM in the area i have chosen as the average for the city (Chapelfields). Ranked in price order this one is the median asking price of those new listings http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32289935.html These houses were regularly selling for £150k - £165k in Gordons Golden Era. Nethouseprices shows those mad prices along with a couple of recent examples of these selling for £115 - 125k. Although it should be noted that for every one of these selling at sub £125k, there are 4 or 5 listed on RM at peak price!! In summary then.................. Selling prices have fallen dramatically. Initial listings on Rightmove are pure comedy, reality hits, asking prices drop and then the agreed price is about 10% less than final RM listed price. A further 10% fall here and buying the average house starts to add up.
  12. For a few months I have been saying 7-8% by year end. This thread gives me the opportunity to re-visit that assertion. I am going to ignore the way these orgs do their YoY and my figures are based on comparing the same calendar month 12 months apart. The first thing to note is that they are diverging. In the 3 months Jan - April, Halifax is down 3.5% but nationwide is up 2.3% in the same period. as such, they have to be treated seperately, rather than expecting them to perform in the same manner. Looking at the Halifax figures, their bottom Apr 09 was £155k. April 2010 was £168,202. April 2011 £160395. The annual rate to April is is -4.6%. A figure of -4.6 by year end would leave us a smidge under the April 2009 low! I'll happily take that, but I'm, going to stick my neck out and say £152k which would be -6.1%. And now, what do I think the Nationwide will do........ +5.8%!!! Just ahead of RPI and best of all tax free!!!!! You cant go wrong with bricks and mortar!!!
  13. If you arent sure about whether you can keep calm or not sure whether you will lose your bottle then the answer is simple.......Dont confront them. Let them accidentally discover that you have a price issue. Walk around the house, compliment them, tell them how lovely the place is. Talk excitedly to Mrs anonguest, compliment the couple some more whilst throwing in some questions about how long they have been there, what work theyve had done etc. Then leave. But not before you carefully leave behind your copy of the sales particulars with some notes on. Your notes should include:- Previous sale price (followed by some very bold exclamation marks!!!!!!!) and date with a prompt to ask questions such as What improvements have they made (ask about bathroom / kitchen / garden / extension / conservatory etc) And then at the bottom - a couple of questions designed only for yourself to read........How has the local market fared since the date they bought - (also make a note of the sstc house for £50k less) and the crunch question - perhaps you should underline this one for effect Do we like the house enough to ignore the figures??? If that doesnt get the message across, nothing will.
  14. This seller must be praying for a 'return to normal'. I recall seeing this go onto the market 3 years ago. It was a renovation project, with an asking price of £200k. It was a really rundown house, looking at the pics, whoever bought has spent some money on it. However, despite an asking of £200k, they must have got into a bidding war because LR says it sold for £250k It seems that the vendor has decided to give up on a return to normal and has now adopted the 'chasing the market down' approach. Dammit, if only we could get back to normal!!!! http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-17108667.html I shouldnt laugh, but i have an image of the canny property developer / vendor reading this article then rushing to the EA's office and politely asking if they can make their house the one that the agent will sell this month!!!
  15. one word - Corby! Edit to add: D'oh - just realised 2nd one isnt in Corby!
  16. It amazes me that people say this. Are you really looking for evidence of drops before you say such drivel, or do you just like to torture yourself that prices wont fall? Land registry shows that average prices in Brighton peaked in Nov 2007, bottomed in May 2009 at 20% below peak, then bounced back to about 5% below peak have now slid away again to sit about 10% below peak. I would say that experience is fairly consistent with the national average and it astounds me that people say "nothing to see here!". Brighton isnt special!!!!
  17. Ian Cowie has an article on the same theme in the telegraph! http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ianmcowie/100010526/frozen-bank-rate-brings-no-cheer-to-mortgage-prisoners/ Bank of England base rate remaining frozen at 0.5pc for two years and three months after today’s announcement will bring no comfort to a third of homebuyers who are ‘mortgage prisoners’ because of stricter new lending criteria and falling house prices. They cannot move home to follow work or accommodate larger families because financial regulators are forcing banks and building societies to ‘shut the stable door after the horse has bolted’. New rules imposed after these homebuyers arranged their original mortgages mean they are not allowed to carry them over to buy a new property – or, in the jargon, ‘port’ the loan. So, they must either pay early redemption penalties, usually between 3pc and 5pc of loan value and running into thousands of pounds, or stay where they are. Independent experts say this unintended consequence of more cautious lending practice since the credit crisis will delay any recovery in the housing market – and could cause a double dip in house prices. Melanie Bien, a director of mortgage broker Private Finance, said: “There is a growing number of mortgage prisoners, who no longer meet their lender’s original or current criteria. “It is terribly unfair that existing customers are being penalised. The biggest problems for those porting are reductions in maximum loan-to-values, tightened affordability criteria or reduced income multiples, and changes to the lender’s treatment of bonuses. “Another issue for those porting is changes to interest-only criteria with most lenders reducing maximum LTVs on interest-only to no more than 75pc.” Examples of major lenders who have moved the goalposts include Halifax – which used to lend up to 85pc on an interest-only basis but reduced this to 75pc LTV from April 6, 2011, to bring it into line with the rest of the Lloyds Banking Group. Similarly, Nationwide Building Society capped interest-only lending at no more than 75pc LTV from early April this year. Ray Boulger of John Charcol mortgage brokers said: “With the Financial Services Authority (FSA) now accepting that some of its original lending proposals, particularly those relating to interest-only and a maximum 25 year term for affordability calculations, are not appropriate, those lenders which have changed their criteria to reflect the FSA proposals need to have a rapid rethink. “Around a third of existing mortgage borrowers are mortgage prisoners, either because they have insufficient equity or savings to allow them to get a new mortgage or because they can no longer meet any lenders’ criteria.” Traditional standard variable rate (SVR) mortgage borrowers are least likely to be affected because these mortgages do not apply early redemption penalties. This demonstrates a risk in long term fixed rates and discounted deals which have become increasingly popular in recent years. David Hollingworth of London & Country Mortgages pointed out: “Only a few years ago, the government suggested there should be more long term fixed rate mortgages in the British market to reduce the exposure of homeowners to volatility in interest rates. “The arguments against locking into a deal for too long remain the same today. If you need to review the mortgage arrangement at some point, because of a home move for example, then the ability to shop around is restricted by any early repayment charge. “There never was a guarantee that the lender would be able to satisfy any new, increased borrowing requirement but with the tightening of criteria in recent years the problems have been brought into sharp relief.” While a fixed rate offers borrowers certainty about future mortgage costs, it is important to remember that the borrower’s own circumstances and requirements may change over time – in which case, fixed terms can prove uncomfortably restrictive. So borrowers need to beware that an attractive deal today could prevent them moving tomorrow
  18. Cant get excited about real terms. If you are interested in sustainable prices, its more relevant to measure the performance of the market against wages. Inflation being so far ahead of wages does nothing to sustain prices, it erodes disposable income and makes prices even more vulnerable!
  19. Let me guess....... Booming housing market leaves retail sales in the shade
  20. And for the benefit of those who dont have PB installed at work.................. would you mind?
  21. I lost about an hour of my day clicking the link in the op and then following a web of financial dimwittedness on other threads over there. However, there seems to be a sea-change in the repsonses. Not so many hugs as in the past. A lot of harshness and bluntness. In particular, this woman trying to sell her house by her own efforts to show her EA is incompetent. Why cant she see the ea would shift it at a reasonable price? http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=3269014 A lot of blunt comments that whilst its well presented, its on a motorway junction and £30k more expensive than bigger houses that dont listen to the m61! Is 'Pastures New' one of ours? I read "Bolton" and thought £40-80k then. I also like this one from doozergirl If you cannot afford to sell it for less than £175k, I suggest it's not going to sell? Rethink required. Anyone else noticed a change in opinions towards the financially inpet?
  22. Been here for 4 years, periodic for last 2. Only renewal was at end of 1st year - we agreed a new 12 month contract in order to effect a 10% rent reduction.
  23. Cant upset the grey vote! Older people are more likely to vote than young, must look after the wrinklies.
  24. Krusty actually hit the bullseye by identifying the real problem with the housing market, but she is flawed in thinking things can just continue as normal. As she rightly pointed out, the younger generation used to save for a deposit. Alas a decade of easy credit made that notion outdated. Easy credit meant that the cautious and prudent found they were competing with the financially reckless. And the reckless were very happy to compete on price. Krusty told every person that has ever been on her programme (and thus the millions on sheeple watching) that you have to buy now before someone else buys the one you want and the next one will only become available at a higher price. Its a shame no-one asked her to reconcile her (newfound) respect for saving and prudence with her advice to buyers on LLL over the years. If things had stayed in the ideal way she waxed lyrical about, none of this would have happened, this site may never have been created, and perhaps none of us would ever have been 'Injin'd' becuase prices would not have bubbled - despite the fact we live on a tiny island, buying is our culture and there is not enough building of new houses. Prices reflect the ability to borrow more than any other factor, and she was right in the middle of the orgy of credit, encouraging the masses to put their necks in the noose and balls in the vice. On last nights programme she spouted about paying a mortgage for 25 or 30 years with no mention of salary multiples when buying. At no point did anyone mention that the housing market has always fluctuated up and down and that over a decade to 2007/8 it was allowed to rocket upwards, as the reckless were allowed to compete on price with the prudent and put massive upward pressure on prices. No mention that throughout history, if people overextend themselves they find they have to sell and this acts as a stabilising mechanism for prices, since those who borrowed too much will become motivated sellers. This process helps price discovery to happen in the market. However there has been a concerted effort by successive govts to bail these morons out and deny price discovery. Only when pointing all of the above out should mr limp-wristed (I once wrote an essay at college about council houses) have stated that Kirsty was quite right that the proles no longer wanted to put themselves in a position to fund their own care in their old age, and this would be a huge drain on public sector finances in 30 or so years, and that such a crisis can be averted now by bringing prices back down to sensible salary multiples with sensible restrictions on lending criteria to encourage the unwashed to buy their own castles again.
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