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House Price Crash Forum


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About Cherubium

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  1. Spend it before the 17th. That's doomsday according to a friend who works as a retail analyst.
  2. I must admit I'm confused by your logic. I thought the biggest threat was presently government and personal debt levels.If deflation sets in, all sterling debt begins to inflate in real terms, the government can't pay its loans and people can't pay their mortgages with shrinking incomes. So the government defaults, the banks go bust. The only example I can think of where long term deflation has been sustainable is Japan over the last 20 years. But they started off with vast overseas assets, a huge trade surplus and despite a property bubble most people had enormous personal savings. I doubt
  3. If you've seen my thread in anecdotals you'll know I've bought now, but I turned down my 'personal' invite to view these! I've seen these so called 'super premium' developments at £1000+ per square foot in places like Chelsea, but you have to wonder about the wisdom of trying this on a main road in Totteridge... There was a very hi-spec development called Cheines Place going about a mile from here a year back. Big 5 bed houses with trimmings like underflloor heating, air-con, music streaming, Miele appliances etc were on the market at 1.5-1.8m and sold for 1.2-1.5. And there are similar dev
  4. I'm 39 Like most new builds they've maximised the plot and the house is only a semi. The garden is about 25x25ft, as a single bloke that's enough to slide open the glass doors and have a few friends out there, or read the Sunday paper outdoors. Maybe not so good if you've got three kids who want a trampoline and football matches! The house is about 3250sqft, so the internal rooms are big and there are huge glass areas. Spec is high, with things like CAT5 networking, music streaming, programmable lighting, underfloor heating. We're a long way from a mass market box here and I wouldn't mind be
  5. Inflation is primarily driven by commodity prices and interest rates, not the UK economy. So I reckon: 1. Commodity prices (food, concrete, metal, oil etc) will have their prices driven by 2 billion people in fast growing India and China. 2. The government and the population have vast amounts of debt. If the government keeps interest rates low and inflation high, the debt gradually vanishes. If the government lets interest rates rise and keeps inflation under control, you might see some big short term falls in property prices when millions of people go broke, but then the government won't b
  6. I think the key here is that I targeted new builds. I can only vouch for London, but while new builds usually sell for 10-15% above average, they currently list at average prices and then seem to sell at whatever is on the table when the development loans expire. You'll not get big reductions dealing with Mr & Mrs 'I know what my house is worth,' as long as mortgage rates remain low enough for them to be comfortable, but many developers have short term finance deals which mean they have to sell. I think a 50% drop is possible, BUT 50% in inflation adjusted terms not in actual prices. W
  7. I'm not looking for reassurance, I was making my mark in the snow! I don't like the culture on this forum where unsophisticated people call everyone who wants to buy a house a 'Muppet' or a 'Sucker'. Their arguments only apply if you view a property as an investment. Buying a house to live in is much more complex and to me the idea that you shouldn't buy a house becuase the price will go down, is part of the same culture of idiocy where people maxed out on houses because they thought that the prices could only go up. Almost everything we buy depreciates in price. Nobody would bat an eyeli
  8. Thought I'd share my story because although I'm a bear on house prices I've also spent the last two years looking for my perfect house. My first reason for buying was personal, I've earned a lot of money over the last few years, but still live in a 1 bed rented flat. My second (much more recently) is an increasing feeling that with inflation taking off, I'd be happier to hedge my bets and have a chunk of money in property rather than having it all sitting in banks getting eroded by inflation. I decided to go for new build, budget up to £2m, more or less anywhere in London. At this level yo
  9. Well you'll have fun getting a mortgage now because there'll be a declined mortgage application on your credit file and you'll have to tick 'yes' in all the 'have you ever been declined finance' boxes every time you want a loan/new credit card etc.
  10. It's usually the young and fresh faced bankers who go for property right after bonus day, and the banks haven't been recruiting for the past couple of years.
  11. "Photoshop, a program fitted to many computers,' makes me imagine the article is being written by some old dude with a monacle who doesn't know who the Beatles are yet.
  12. During very high inflation nothing really has a value because cash is worthless and there's no medium of exchange. But after the crisis, things calm down, there's a new currency in place and you own a house, instead of a bank account full of debased currency. Of course, you could fail to keep up repayments on the mortgage if you lost your job. But for a government to raise interest rates so high that they kept pace with or even outpaced high inflation would be a global first. I can't think of a single example of an economy where the value of cash held on deposit or debts hasn't eroded durin
  13. Ironically for a house price crash forum, the best thing to do in this increasingly likely scenario is go cash light, asset rich. For the more confident, borrow as much as you can and buy assets with it. For most people, the only asset you can buy with borrowed money is property. Gold is all very well, but in this kind of crisis there's likely to be a huge bubble in the price, so you won't get very much of it and if the crisis doesn't happen you end up at a long queue of people desperate to sell it as the price collapses. Also, unlike a house you can't live in a pile of gold bars and might
  14. 38, single, live in a flat I rent from my mum that used to belong to my grandparents. A few years back my career started taking off, and I've gone from earning 40k to around 700kpa. I found two new build houses that I liked in the doldrums of early 2009, but in one the developer pulled out asking for more money and eventually sold to someone else six months later for the same price. The other one the developer decided they wanted more money, literally days before we were due to exchange contracts. The developer didn't sell it and now lives there. So I'm still looking for my contemporary £
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