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House Price Crash Forum


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Everything posted by Henrik

  1. There's nothing wrong with buying a house you like. You get to do whatever you want in it/to it, without periodic inspections, being kicked out for no good reason etc etc. Many good reasons to buy. If you have enough savings etc to weather a couple of months out of work, and / or doing maintenance to the house, then why not? Even if houses fall in value, then you've saved stamp duty, you got a couple of % off, and you dont have to pay rent. This should all soften the blow if prices fall in nominal terms.
  2. This must depend on the agency. I've just had an offer accepted on a house, and the sellers agent actually called my agent first to verify that I had sstc'd. They wouldn't even take offer until I had had a chat with the mortgage advisor to make sure I had enough income / deposit to realistically get finance. There was no pressure to take a mortgage out, so I don't think they passed me on just for some commission I don't think agents like houses falling through for these reasons more than anyone else tbh.
  3. Crazy talk, are you sure you're not a VI Troll?
  4. Same! I don't think they're outright lying, but I would be very interested in knowing what the mix of properties is, and how the weights between e.g north / south / London have changed over time. For example, if a year ago, they were mainly lending up north, but have started lending more in the south, presumably the average would go up just from this, unless it's corrected for.
  5. Nothing yet - might be late again this month?
  6. Oh I see, yes definitely agree on the reason for indexes being published (*maybe* with the exception of the land registry, but as it's several months out of date it's more or less useless IMO). However, at least now they acknowledge that the market isn't as buoyant as they'd like, so that's a positive in my book
  7. https://www.estateagenttoday.co.uk/breaking-news/2019/5/house-prices-are-like-brexit--stuck-floundering-going-nowhere I'd almost say that's balanced, considering its from EA today
  8. If that is your concern, then I suggest buying in the countryside far away from other people.
  9. I think it's a great idea as well. English houses are so pokey anyway most of the time, so maybe this will allow some to be made reasonable without the owners having to spend often far in excess of 100k on the difference to a bigger house + stamp duty + moving costs.
  10. Hmm, I know the RICS is retrospective, but unfortunately a lot of the houses I've been keeping an eye at in my local area, which were previously sticking for ages, have gone SSTC. I dont know what they actually sell for, but at least two were advertised for more than the ceiling price (which is totally mental), but they've also gone SSTC In Bromley/Orpington in SE London/Kent. I'm hoping that it's not the beginning of something and just a bit of a spring/summer bounce, but who knows with these crazy people paying these prices.
  11. Nothing as of yet. Are we sure on the dates?
  12. The problem with this kind of (probably) intentional misrepresentation is that it's the first thing that people hear about something that sticks in their minds. I'd be willing to bet that at least 50% of people who read a statement like that wouldn't even question the accuracy, let alone go and do any research of their own. Its probably the reason that the same commenters on e.g BBC HYS are always the first to comment - they're bots that spring into action as soon as the comments open, probably to get the biggest mindshare off the bat.
  13. But to be fair, the areas further out of the centre might be nicer for other reasons than just pure cost.
  14. Might be a Brexit play... When it's cancelled, presumably the pound will regain some of what it lost since 2016. On the other hand, if that was my vet and I was a billionaire, I'd probably do Forex futures instead
  15. If you were on e.g. a 500/day contract, that works out as about 130k / year (for 260 days worked per year). Even if you pay 40% tax on that (plus the loss of personal allowance), that's still a pretty good wage, compared to a permie doing the same job, who might get 300 per day including benefits. I.e. even with IR35, it makes sense to go contracting for a lot of people in IT.
  16. Seasonal adjustment. Also, do the calcs for next month and see what price is needed for 3m3m not to be negative
  17. With most PCP deals you can hand the car back after half the payments I think (I'm not sure if it's PCP or the other Pxx - basically the one with a huge bubble at the end). In my own experience, sadly expenditures grow in line with income, at least once kids arrive.
  18. 25% of stock "meaningfully reduced", and 30% of the reduced stock having sales agreed. Doesn't tell how much of the original price stock sold (my guess - not a lot, otherwise why would you reduce price on a bunch of houses). 30% of 25% is 7.5% of the listings sold (sale agreed). Add whatever percentage of stock that sells at the original price. Market is dead.
  19. Wouldn't someone on 27k be entitled to loads of tax credits as well, which would make houses more affordable? I'm also in the "house prices are a function of cost and availability of credit" camp.. I simply don't think that most (or at least enough) people can see past the monthly payment when considering a house purchase, especially when "house prices always go up".
  20. In depth review of the BS job boom book here: https://www.newyorker.com/books/under-review/the-********-job-boom
  21. I'd be interested in mining the data set a bit @GettingBored - any chance of a peek? E.g. I'd like to do the asking price vs eventual selling price (probably still too early, given that there's only data from the 4th of April), but eventually it should be possible to find out. Also interested in building some super simple linear regressions to predict eventual selling price (I'm doing a data analytics course at the moment...)
  22. Hmm, yes, good point. It'd be nice to see some data of how far under asking price a property eventually sells for... I suspect it could be constructed from comparing rightmove data vs land registry data (unless such a data set already exists).
  23. It will happen up there too eventually. People are broke as <expletive> and most are in debt (at least most of the people I know down here), and I don't think there will be much difference in "brokeness factor" around the country tbh - just the levels of debt people are in might be different (because different areas have different wages, so people can service a different amount of debt).
  24. Orpington/Bromley area definitely struggling. The very small market I'm looking at actually has houses listed for sale that are lower than prices achieved last year (plus a couple of kite flyers at last years prices + 150k, for a worse house...). Even the cheaper houses haven't been flying off the shelves either - a couple have been on for a two months now at the lower prices, with another few listed at "sensible" (compared to last year) prices being listed in May.
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